US-Iran deal done but brent crude prices could rise beyond $90 per barrel: Emkay
Brent crude oil prices: The brokerage believes prices should fall meaningfully and sustainably beyond 1HFY27, falling to $70/bbl by end-FY27.
- Jun 16, 2026,
- Updated Jun 16, 2026 12:33 PM IST
Brent crude prices were trading below the $83 per barrel mark today after US and Iran inked a peace deal, which would lead to an opening of the Strait of Hormuz and unclog the world trade sentiment. The oil rates slipped 5% on Monday to close at $80.75 per barrel. On Tuesday, brent crude rates stood at $82.66, marginally higher than Monday level. Brent crude prices are down below the $83 per barrel mark for the first time since March 4. With markets rejoicing the peace pact, oil rates are also expected to fall further.
But there is a catch.
There is a material risk of continued physical market imbalances causing prices to move toward and beyond $90/bbl in coming weeks, says Emkay Global.
The brokerage expects supply normalisation delays and believes that a return of pent-up demand largely from China could put a floor on oil prices.
"With supply normalization via Hormuz (to pre-crisis levels) expected to take weeks, if not months, there is a material risk that oil prices will slowly grind upward, toward and beyond USD90/bbl in coming weeks, if pent-up demand returns quickly," said Emkay. However, the brokerage believes prices should fall meaningfully and sustainably beyond 1HFY27, falling to $70/bbl by end-FY27.
"Crucially, this does not move the needle for our baseline forecasts – With 1HFY27 likely to see elevated prices (avg: USD95/bbl; 2HFY27E: USD85/bbl), we retain FY27E Brent forecast at USD90/bbl (Oil imbalances: The price of war and resilience)," said Emkay.
Before tanker traffic dropped sharply in early March following Iranian attacks, nearly 20% of global oil supplies moved through the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting disruption has been described as the biggest oil supply shock on record. Since tensions escalated in late February, oil markets have faced significant turmoil, with the Strait's near-closure severely affecting the flow of crude and putting almost one-fifth of worldwide oil shipments at risk.
The war between US-Israel and Iran started on February 28 this year after US ultimatum to Iran for extinguishing its nuclear arsenal ended. However, after a 2.5 month old war, signals of peace emerged. In his latest social media post, US President Donald Trump announced that the peace deal with Iran was done.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. Hormuz will open without a toll system and the US will end its naval blockade of Iran, Trump said.
“Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump said. Let the oil flow!”
Later, Trump in a post, said that the strait would open on Friday, the day the official peace agreement signing ceremony is set to be held in Switzerland.
“With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!” he said.
Brent crude prices were trading below the $83 per barrel mark today after US and Iran inked a peace deal, which would lead to an opening of the Strait of Hormuz and unclog the world trade sentiment. The oil rates slipped 5% on Monday to close at $80.75 per barrel. On Tuesday, brent crude rates stood at $82.66, marginally higher than Monday level. Brent crude prices are down below the $83 per barrel mark for the first time since March 4. With markets rejoicing the peace pact, oil rates are also expected to fall further.
But there is a catch.
There is a material risk of continued physical market imbalances causing prices to move toward and beyond $90/bbl in coming weeks, says Emkay Global.
The brokerage expects supply normalisation delays and believes that a return of pent-up demand largely from China could put a floor on oil prices.
"With supply normalization via Hormuz (to pre-crisis levels) expected to take weeks, if not months, there is a material risk that oil prices will slowly grind upward, toward and beyond USD90/bbl in coming weeks, if pent-up demand returns quickly," said Emkay. However, the brokerage believes prices should fall meaningfully and sustainably beyond 1HFY27, falling to $70/bbl by end-FY27.
"Crucially, this does not move the needle for our baseline forecasts – With 1HFY27 likely to see elevated prices (avg: USD95/bbl; 2HFY27E: USD85/bbl), we retain FY27E Brent forecast at USD90/bbl (Oil imbalances: The price of war and resilience)," said Emkay.
Before tanker traffic dropped sharply in early March following Iranian attacks, nearly 20% of global oil supplies moved through the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting disruption has been described as the biggest oil supply shock on record. Since tensions escalated in late February, oil markets have faced significant turmoil, with the Strait's near-closure severely affecting the flow of crude and putting almost one-fifth of worldwide oil shipments at risk.
The war between US-Israel and Iran started on February 28 this year after US ultimatum to Iran for extinguishing its nuclear arsenal ended. However, after a 2.5 month old war, signals of peace emerged. In his latest social media post, US President Donald Trump announced that the peace deal with Iran was done.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. Hormuz will open without a toll system and the US will end its naval blockade of Iran, Trump said.
“Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump said. Let the oil flow!”
Later, Trump in a post, said that the strait would open on Friday, the day the official peace agreement signing ceremony is set to be held in Switzerland.
“With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!” he said.