Varun Beverages shares: Rerating candidate? What analysts say on Carlsberg pact, muted Q3
VBL share price target: Calling the Pepsico bottler a rerating candidate, Emkay Global suggested a 'Buy' on VBL, as it revising its target price by 6 per cent to Rs 575.
- Oct 30, 2025,
- Updated Oct 30, 2025 8:34 AM IST
Varun Beverages’ (VBL) Q3 performance was muted but largely in line with expectations, with revenue up 2 per cent year-on-year amid a prolonged monsoon across India. Consolidated volumes grew 2.4 per cent YoY, while Ebitda margins contracted about 50 basis points to 23.4 per cent. Despite this, analysts largely retained their bullish calls on the stock, citing entry into the AlcoBev segment and revival in volume growth.
Calling the Pepsico bottler a rerating candidate, Emkay Global suggested a 'Buy' on VBL, as it revising its target price by 6 per cent to Rs 575. The target revision has been driven near-equally by estimate revision on revenue and Ebitda and TAM expansion with entry into the AlcoBev space in Africa.
"Encouragingly, the double-digit volume growth has also revived in October 2025, allaying Street concerns around potential market-share loss. Also, VBL highlighted its focus on market-share protection, with readiness to participate even on the magic price-point of Rs 10, if need be. Notably, VBL’s growth is being led by differentiated categories like hydration/dairy (up 50-100 per cent), wherein competition is limited," Emkay said.
It noted that VBL also expressed confidence on its new launch ‘Adrenaline Rush’ in the energy category, with a few more launches expected ahead of the coming summer season. "We remain confident about VBL’s outperformance (vs FMCG peers), with return of double-digit volume growth; we also see further scope of TAM expansion with new territory/category additions." Emkay said.
Nuvama said Varun Beverages (VBL) reported a weak Q3CY25 along expected lines. It said the timeline is unclear for AlcoBev India entry, but VBL is testing waters piloting distribution of Carlsberg Beer in Africa.
"October marked double-digit growth, but a potentially harsher winter (owing to La Niña) remains a key factor to monitor. We are cutting CY25E–27E EPS by 5 per cent building in a weak Q3 and rolling forward the valuation, which yield a target of Rs 595 (earlier Rs 606); retain ‘BUY’," it said.
MOFSL said 9MCY25 has been a subdued period for VBL, despite capacity additions, due to an early and prolonged monsoon. It expects VBL to improve its earnings momentum, aided by: a scale-up in the international market, driven by South Africa and recovery in the Zimbabwe market, strengthening of on-ground execution in the Indian market and scale up of the snacking business from CY26 onwards, backed by the operationalisation of the Morocco and Zimbabwe markets in 2HCY25. It sees an expanding product portfolio and cited ongoing investments in capacity expansion, distribution, and cold chain infrastructure for its optimism.
"We largely maintain our CY25/CY26/CY27 earnings estimates. We expect a CAGR of 15 per cent/15 per cent/19 per cent in revenue/Ebitda/PAT over CY25E-27. We value the stock at 54x CY26E EPS to arrive at a TP of INR580. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock," it said.
Varun Beverages’ (VBL) Q3 performance was muted but largely in line with expectations, with revenue up 2 per cent year-on-year amid a prolonged monsoon across India. Consolidated volumes grew 2.4 per cent YoY, while Ebitda margins contracted about 50 basis points to 23.4 per cent. Despite this, analysts largely retained their bullish calls on the stock, citing entry into the AlcoBev segment and revival in volume growth.
Calling the Pepsico bottler a rerating candidate, Emkay Global suggested a 'Buy' on VBL, as it revising its target price by 6 per cent to Rs 575. The target revision has been driven near-equally by estimate revision on revenue and Ebitda and TAM expansion with entry into the AlcoBev space in Africa.
"Encouragingly, the double-digit volume growth has also revived in October 2025, allaying Street concerns around potential market-share loss. Also, VBL highlighted its focus on market-share protection, with readiness to participate even on the magic price-point of Rs 10, if need be. Notably, VBL’s growth is being led by differentiated categories like hydration/dairy (up 50-100 per cent), wherein competition is limited," Emkay said.
It noted that VBL also expressed confidence on its new launch ‘Adrenaline Rush’ in the energy category, with a few more launches expected ahead of the coming summer season. "We remain confident about VBL’s outperformance (vs FMCG peers), with return of double-digit volume growth; we also see further scope of TAM expansion with new territory/category additions." Emkay said.
Nuvama said Varun Beverages (VBL) reported a weak Q3CY25 along expected lines. It said the timeline is unclear for AlcoBev India entry, but VBL is testing waters piloting distribution of Carlsberg Beer in Africa.
"October marked double-digit growth, but a potentially harsher winter (owing to La Niña) remains a key factor to monitor. We are cutting CY25E–27E EPS by 5 per cent building in a weak Q3 and rolling forward the valuation, which yield a target of Rs 595 (earlier Rs 606); retain ‘BUY’," it said.
MOFSL said 9MCY25 has been a subdued period for VBL, despite capacity additions, due to an early and prolonged monsoon. It expects VBL to improve its earnings momentum, aided by: a scale-up in the international market, driven by South Africa and recovery in the Zimbabwe market, strengthening of on-ground execution in the Indian market and scale up of the snacking business from CY26 onwards, backed by the operationalisation of the Morocco and Zimbabwe markets in 2HCY25. It sees an expanding product portfolio and cited ongoing investments in capacity expansion, distribution, and cold chain infrastructure for its optimism.
"We largely maintain our CY25/CY26/CY27 earnings estimates. We expect a CAGR of 15 per cent/15 per cent/19 per cent in revenue/Ebitda/PAT over CY25E-27. We value the stock at 54x CY26E EPS to arrive at a TP of INR580. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock," it said.