Vedanta Power: Listing likely next week post demerger— Growth trajectory, valuation & more

Vedanta Power is expected to be listed in mid-June and will enter the market as India’s fifth-largest private thermal power producer. The demerged from Vedanta Ltd entity is likely to make to stock market debut next week, suggest sources, subject to final regulatory and exchange approvals. It operates 4.18 GW of thermal capacity across Talwandi Sabo in Punjab, Meenakshi Energy in Andhra Pradesh, Sakti in Chhattisgarh and Jharsuguda in Odisha, and has set a target of becoming one of India’s top three private thermal power producers by FY33 through expansion and asset turnarounds. Brokerage firms have put out a range of valuations ahead of the listing. Nuvama Institutional Equities has assigned a fair value of Rs 47, Emkay Global Financial Services Rs 51.7 per share, Kotak Institutional Equities Rs 60 per share and Investec Rs 29 per share, while Systematix has valued the business at Rs 6,200 crore. ICICI Securities said the power arm contributes Rs 13 in its sum-of-the-parts valuation. CLSA was also among the firms named as having published an assessment. Vedanta Power reported revenue of Rs 8,891 crore and EBITDA of Rs 1,534 crore in FY26. Free cash flow is projected to move from negative Rs 347 crore in FY25 to positive Rs 2,233 crore by FY29. The company expects capacity to rise to about 4.78 GW after full commissioning of the Sakti plant, with a plan to reach 11.98 GW by FY33. Nearly 85 per cent of capacity is backed by long-term coal linkages, and nearly 73 per cent of installed capacity is tied up under long-term and medium-term power purchase agreements with state utilities. Talwandi Sabo’s 1,980 MW capacity is fully contracted until 2041 under a 25-year PPA and supplies about 35 per cent of Punjab’s electricity requirement, while Jharsuguda’s 600 MW is fully contracted until 2037 under a 25-year agreement with GRIDCO. PPAs running until 2031 cover 300 MW at Meenakshi and 200 MW at Sakti. Nuvama said power sales volume rose 28 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 5 million units, helped by a rise in plant load factor at TSPL to 77 per cent from 75 per cent in Q3FY26. It said Meenakshi and Athena production rose 125 per cent and 20 per cent quarter-on-quarter respectively, revenue increased 46 per cent to Rs 2,170 crore and Ebitda rose about 53 per cent to Rs 570 crore. Nuvama also said a 600 MW unit is down after a boiler tube blast in mid-April 2026, with a restart timeline to be shared after a full assessment. Nuvama added that Meenakshi and Athena secured five-year PPAs for 300 MW and 200 MW from February 2026, alongside linkage coal supply of 5.3 mtpa and 1.5 mtpa for Athena Phase 2, and projected a 42 per cent CAGR over FY26-28E. Emkay said the demerger is in its final leg, with the record date set for 1 May 2026 and listing of the four entities expected by mid-June. ICICI Securities said power sales grew 30 per cent year-on-year to 16.4 billion units, aided by Athena and Meenakshi, while NSR improved 31 per cent. Kotak said EBITDA of the power arm stood at Rs 566 crore, up 332.1 per cent year-on-year and 53.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Investec said insurance was in place to cover losses from non-supply after the incident, but management had not given a definitive restart timeline for the affected Unit-1 or the under-commissioning Unit-2. As the company moves towards listing, brokerage views continue to centre on its contracted base, expansion pipeline and the valuation that may emerge after the demerger. To recall, the demerger of Vedanta became effective on May 1, 2026 as per the approved scheme, where in shareholders shall receive one share each of Vedanta Aluminium Metal (VAML), Vedanta Power, Malco Energy (MEL) and Vedanta Iron & Steel (VISL) for every Vedanta share held. Existing Vedanta shares will continue to remain with investors.