Vedanta, Tata Steel, Hindalco, HZL: Q1 earnings preview as shares rise up to 68% in a year
Shares of the Aditya Birla Group's metal firm Hindalco are up 40% and Hindustan Zinc stock has gained 21.38% in a year
- Jul 8, 2026,
- Updated Jul 8, 2026 9:19 AM IST
Metal majors such as Vedanta, Tata Steel, Hindalco and Hindustan Zinc are set to announce their results during the Q1 earnings season. Shares of Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta and Tata Steel have gained up to 68% in a year. While Tata Steel shares have risen 17%, shares of Vedanta have gained 68% in a year.
Shares of the Aditya Birla Group's metal firm Hindalco are up 40% and Hindustan Zinc stock has gained 21.38% in a year. On a year to date basis, Tata Steel shares are up 4.34% and Hindalco stock has gained 8.34%. Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta shares are down 13.25% and are up 27%, respectively.
Here's a look at what brokerage Nuvama expects from the upcoming earnings of the these four metal majors.
Q1FY27 earnings preview: Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Tata Steel
Hindalco Industries
Hindalco Industries is expected to report a sequential improvement in profitability for its India operations during the June quarter, supported by stronger aluminium realisations. The company's India business EBITDA is estimated to rise around 14% quarter-on-quarter to approximately Rs 6,960 crore.
The aluminium business, including Utkal Alumina, is likely to be the key growth driver, with EBITDA projected to increase nearly 16% QoQ to Rs 6,420 crore. The improvement is expected to be driven by a 6.9% sequential rise in blended aluminium realisations to $4,448 per tonne, while aluminium EBITDA per tonne is estimated to increase to $2,066 from the previous quarter's levels.
The copper business is expected to deliver a stable performance, with EBITDA likely to remain broadly unchanged at around Rs 900 crore.
At Novelis, adjusted EBITDA is expected to stay largely flat sequentially at $457 million. Although sales volumes are projected to increase about 4% QoQ to 879,000 tonnes, EBITDA per tonne is likely to soften to $520 from $544 in the March quarter.
Hindustan Zinc
Hindustan Zinc is expected to post a largely stable operating performance in the June quarter, with EBITDA estimated at around Rs 7,650 crore, broadly unchanged from the previous quarter.
Higher average zinc prices, which are expected to rise nearly 9% QoQ, along with a 2% rise in blended silver prices following the increase in import duty from 6% to 15%, are likely to support earnings.
However, these gains could be offset by lower sales volumes. Zinc, lead and silver sales volumes are expected to decline by 6.6%, 14.5% and 15.3%, respectively, on a sequential basis.
Meanwhile, the cost of production (excluding royalty) for zinc is estimated to increase around 5% QoQ to $950 per tonne.
Vedanta
Vedanta is likely to report a modest sequential improvement in consolidated earnings, with EBITDA expected to rise around 6% QoQ, largely driven by stronger zinc prices across its operations.
The company's international zinc business is expected to deliver the strongest growth, with EBITDA projected to surge about 145% QoQ owing to improved zinc realisations and lower production costs.
The India zinc business is expected to report largely flat EBITDA as higher metal prices are likely to be offset by lower sales volumes.
The copper business is also expected to witness a sharp turnaround, with EBITDA estimated at Rs 153 crore, compared with just Rs 8 crore in the previous quarter, supported by higher copper prices and lower brand-related expenses.
Tata Steel
Tata Steel's India business is expected to report stronger profitability despite lower seasonal volumes during the June quarter.
Standalone adjusted EBITDA per tonne is projected to increase by around Rs 2,515 QoQ to Rs 17,760 per tonne, aided by a sequential rise of nearly Rs 5,400 per tonne in blended steel realisations. The gains are likely to be partly offset by an increase of around $15 per tonne in coking coal costs.
Domestic steel sales volumes are expected to decline around 17% QoQ to 5.12 million tonnes, reflecting seasonal weakness.
The European business is likely to remain under pressure, with Tata Steel Europe expected to report an EBITDA loss of $16 per tonne, compared with a marginal profit of $2 per tonne in the previous quarter. Higher costs and weaker volumes in the Netherlands are expected to weigh on performance, although reduced losses in the UK could provide partial support.
At the consolidated level, adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline about 6% QoQ to approximately Rs 9,300 crore.
Metal majors such as Vedanta, Tata Steel, Hindalco and Hindustan Zinc are set to announce their results during the Q1 earnings season. Shares of Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta and Tata Steel have gained up to 68% in a year. While Tata Steel shares have risen 17%, shares of Vedanta have gained 68% in a year.
Shares of the Aditya Birla Group's metal firm Hindalco are up 40% and Hindustan Zinc stock has gained 21.38% in a year. On a year to date basis, Tata Steel shares are up 4.34% and Hindalco stock has gained 8.34%. Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta shares are down 13.25% and are up 27%, respectively.
Here's a look at what brokerage Nuvama expects from the upcoming earnings of the these four metal majors.
Q1FY27 earnings preview: Hindalco, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Tata Steel
Hindalco Industries
Hindalco Industries is expected to report a sequential improvement in profitability for its India operations during the June quarter, supported by stronger aluminium realisations. The company's India business EBITDA is estimated to rise around 14% quarter-on-quarter to approximately Rs 6,960 crore.
The aluminium business, including Utkal Alumina, is likely to be the key growth driver, with EBITDA projected to increase nearly 16% QoQ to Rs 6,420 crore. The improvement is expected to be driven by a 6.9% sequential rise in blended aluminium realisations to $4,448 per tonne, while aluminium EBITDA per tonne is estimated to increase to $2,066 from the previous quarter's levels.
The copper business is expected to deliver a stable performance, with EBITDA likely to remain broadly unchanged at around Rs 900 crore.
At Novelis, adjusted EBITDA is expected to stay largely flat sequentially at $457 million. Although sales volumes are projected to increase about 4% QoQ to 879,000 tonnes, EBITDA per tonne is likely to soften to $520 from $544 in the March quarter.
Hindustan Zinc
Hindustan Zinc is expected to post a largely stable operating performance in the June quarter, with EBITDA estimated at around Rs 7,650 crore, broadly unchanged from the previous quarter.
Higher average zinc prices, which are expected to rise nearly 9% QoQ, along with a 2% rise in blended silver prices following the increase in import duty from 6% to 15%, are likely to support earnings.
However, these gains could be offset by lower sales volumes. Zinc, lead and silver sales volumes are expected to decline by 6.6%, 14.5% and 15.3%, respectively, on a sequential basis.
Meanwhile, the cost of production (excluding royalty) for zinc is estimated to increase around 5% QoQ to $950 per tonne.
Vedanta
Vedanta is likely to report a modest sequential improvement in consolidated earnings, with EBITDA expected to rise around 6% QoQ, largely driven by stronger zinc prices across its operations.
The company's international zinc business is expected to deliver the strongest growth, with EBITDA projected to surge about 145% QoQ owing to improved zinc realisations and lower production costs.
The India zinc business is expected to report largely flat EBITDA as higher metal prices are likely to be offset by lower sales volumes.
The copper business is also expected to witness a sharp turnaround, with EBITDA estimated at Rs 153 crore, compared with just Rs 8 crore in the previous quarter, supported by higher copper prices and lower brand-related expenses.
Tata Steel
Tata Steel's India business is expected to report stronger profitability despite lower seasonal volumes during the June quarter.
Standalone adjusted EBITDA per tonne is projected to increase by around Rs 2,515 QoQ to Rs 17,760 per tonne, aided by a sequential rise of nearly Rs 5,400 per tonne in blended steel realisations. The gains are likely to be partly offset by an increase of around $15 per tonne in coking coal costs.
Domestic steel sales volumes are expected to decline around 17% QoQ to 5.12 million tonnes, reflecting seasonal weakness.
The European business is likely to remain under pressure, with Tata Steel Europe expected to report an EBITDA loss of $16 per tonne, compared with a marginal profit of $2 per tonne in the previous quarter. Higher costs and weaker volumes in the Netherlands are expected to weigh on performance, although reduced losses in the UK could provide partial support.
At the consolidated level, adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline about 6% QoQ to approximately Rs 9,300 crore.