Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel: Reliance Jio listing prospects up tariff hike bets
Jio listing: JM Financial believes the the IPO news has increased the possibility of a 15 per cent tariff hike in the RIL's telecom business by November-December 2025.
- Sep 1, 2025,
- Updated Sep 1, 2025 9:53 AM IST
Following the Reliance Industries (RIL) AGM 2025, a couple of brokerages now believe telecom tariff hikes are likely in the next 3-4 months, potentially benefitting telecom operators namely Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, ahead of the Reliance Jio Infocomm (Jio) listing. Shares of Vodafone Idea were trading 1.4 per cent higher at Rs 6.58 on BSE. Bharti Airtel Ltd was up 0.27 per cent at Rs 1,894.20.
At its 48th AGM, RIL CMD Mukesh Ambani expected Jio’s IPO by the first half of Calendar 2026, subject to necessary approvals. JM Financial believes this increases the possibility of a 15 per cent tariff hike in the telecom business by November-December 2025 and, hence, is likely to be positive for telecom operators such as RIL and Bharti Airtel, though it will be subject to a potential valuation for the Jio IPO, it noted.
RIL suggested that Jio’s 5G wireless subscriber base has now crossed 22 crore against 21 crore at end-1QFY26 and that its overall subscriber base has crossed 50 crore against 49.81 crore at end-1QFY26. This includes both wireless and broadband subscribers.
"Jio's growth momentum remains intact with another tariff hike likely before Jio listing, while Retail is set to strengthen post-restructuring with RCPL as a key driver. O2C remains stable, with refining outlook steady and petchem recovery expected by FY28 as new projects add volume," Antique Stock Broking said.
MOFSL said it expects RJio to remain the biggest growth driver with 19 pre cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28, driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise offerings.
"We currently value JPL at an Enterprise value of Rs 13.3 lakh crore ($151 billion), based on 13.5 times September 2027 EV/Ebitda, which implies an overall equity value of Rs 11.9 lakh crore ($135 billion) for JPL (Rs 585/share attributable to RIL). Based on our valuation and SEBI’s recent proposal for reducing stake dilution limit to 2.5 per cent, JPL’s IPO could be the largest in India with a size of Rs 30,000 crore," MOFSL said.
MOFSL said the value creation through the JPL IPO could offset the negative impact of a theoretical holding company discount for RIL’s stake in JPL.
Nuvama, meanwhile, believes that while Jio may attract higher value, RIL shareholders may not benefit hugely due to holdco valuation discount.
Following the Reliance Industries (RIL) AGM 2025, a couple of brokerages now believe telecom tariff hikes are likely in the next 3-4 months, potentially benefitting telecom operators namely Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, ahead of the Reliance Jio Infocomm (Jio) listing. Shares of Vodafone Idea were trading 1.4 per cent higher at Rs 6.58 on BSE. Bharti Airtel Ltd was up 0.27 per cent at Rs 1,894.20.
At its 48th AGM, RIL CMD Mukesh Ambani expected Jio’s IPO by the first half of Calendar 2026, subject to necessary approvals. JM Financial believes this increases the possibility of a 15 per cent tariff hike in the telecom business by November-December 2025 and, hence, is likely to be positive for telecom operators such as RIL and Bharti Airtel, though it will be subject to a potential valuation for the Jio IPO, it noted.
RIL suggested that Jio’s 5G wireless subscriber base has now crossed 22 crore against 21 crore at end-1QFY26 and that its overall subscriber base has crossed 50 crore against 49.81 crore at end-1QFY26. This includes both wireless and broadband subscribers.
"Jio's growth momentum remains intact with another tariff hike likely before Jio listing, while Retail is set to strengthen post-restructuring with RCPL as a key driver. O2C remains stable, with refining outlook steady and petchem recovery expected by FY28 as new projects add volume," Antique Stock Broking said.
MOFSL said it expects RJio to remain the biggest growth driver with 19 pre cent Ebitda CAGR over FY25-28, driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and continued ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise offerings.
"We currently value JPL at an Enterprise value of Rs 13.3 lakh crore ($151 billion), based on 13.5 times September 2027 EV/Ebitda, which implies an overall equity value of Rs 11.9 lakh crore ($135 billion) for JPL (Rs 585/share attributable to RIL). Based on our valuation and SEBI’s recent proposal for reducing stake dilution limit to 2.5 per cent, JPL’s IPO could be the largest in India with a size of Rs 30,000 crore," MOFSL said.
MOFSL said the value creation through the JPL IPO could offset the negative impact of a theoretical holding company discount for RIL’s stake in JPL.
Nuvama, meanwhile, believes that while Jio may attract higher value, RIL shareholders may not benefit hugely due to holdco valuation discount.