Vodafone Idea headed for 22% upside? Should you buy ahead of Q4 results; what analyst say

Vodafone Idea target price: Telecom operator Vodafone Idea Ltd has drawn fresh brokerage interest lately. Bajaj Broking sees a strong 22 per cent upside potential in the stock as it sees that the correction in the counter is over and the stock is set for a rebound in the next one month. To recall, the company is likely to announce its Q4 earnings during the same period.

The share price of Vodafone Idea has undergone a corrective phase over the past three - four months and is currently rebounding after consolidating near the crucial support zone, thus offering a favorable risk-reward set up for the next leg of up move. The stock is rebounding from the support level of Rs 8-8.5, indicating buying interest at lower levels, said Bajaj Broking.

Shares of Vodafone Idea shed more than a per cent to Rs 9.45 on Wednesday, with its market capitalization slipping below Rs 1.05 lakh crore. The stock has tumbled more than 26 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 12.80. The stock is up 10 per cent in the last one month, signaling a positive uptrend in the short-term.

This range serves as a crucial support area, being the confluence of the multiple technical factors including 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous August 2025 - January 2026 up move (6.1- 12.8 ) and 200 days SMA placed around Rs 9 levels, which has historically acted as strong demand area for the stock, it said.  

The stock has recently generated a breakout above a falling channel and is seen sustaining above its 200 days SMA signaling strength and offers fresh entry opportunity. On the momentum front, the daily 14 periods RSI is in up trend and sustaining above its nine periods average thus validates positive bias in the stock, Bajaj Broking noted.

"We anticipate Vodafone Idea to resume its uptrend and head towards Rs 11.6 levels in the coming months being the 80 per cent retracement of the recent decline of the last 3 months Rs 12.8 - 8.1. On the momentum front, the daily 14 periods RSI is in up trend and sustaining above its nine periods average thus validates positive bias in the stock," it added.

Vodafone Idea Q4 preview

Kotak Institutional Equities expect stable revenue and Ebitda to decline 1.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent QoQ due to a combination of lower ARPU and continued subscriber losses during the quarter. "We model EoP subscriber base to decline by 0.5 million QoQ to 192.4 million and ARPU to decrease marginally to Rs 171 on lower number of days in the quarter, offset by subscriber mix."

ICICI Securities expects Vodafone Ideas' revenue to dip 0.3 per cent QoQ/2.5 per cent YoY to Rs 11,300 crore, largely led by ARPU, while subs are likely to dip. While we expect good improvement in subs, they may still decline. However, the company has been able to improve customer engagement and drive better ARPU, helping outperform peers.

"We expect an increase of 1.1 per cent QoQ in 4G subscribers, indicating the gradual benefit of network expansion. We expect Ebitda to dip 0.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 4,790 crore, wherein Ebitda growth may be confined by higher network costs. Net loss could be lower at Rs 4,900 crore as finance cost is likely to dip due to the freezing of AGR dues post the recent relief by the government," it added.  

Vodafone Idea target price

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a 'neutral' rating on Vodafone Idea with a target price of Rs 10, while ICICI Securities has a 'hold' tag for the stock with the same target price. JM Financial has an 'add' rating with a target price of Rs 9 apiece. Kotak and Emkay Global both has a 'sell' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 7 and Rs 6, respectively.