Vodafone Idea shares at Rs 9 or Rs 14? Fresh target prices as stock doubles in one year
Nuvama said VIL appears to be making steady progress with improvement in ARPU and subscriber additions on one hand and reassessment of AGR dues and the 10-year moratorium on the other.
- May 19, 2026,
- Updated May 19, 2026 9:43 AM IST
Vodafone Idea Ltd, whose shares have soared 93.15 per cent in the past one year and 111 per cent from August 2025 closing lows, has received target prices in a wide range of Rs 9-14 per share following its March quarter results. In a fresh note, Nuvama said capex remains elevated and it is an uphill task for Vodafone Idea to meet financial obligations. Similarly MOFSL said everything must go right for Vodafone Idea for the long-term revival. Among fresh targets, Nuvama suggested 'Hold' rating and a target price of Rs 13.50 per share. MOFSL, which is neutral on the stock, suggested a revised target of Rs 10 on VIL against Rs 9.50 earlier. Nomura said The warrant issuance to promoters may help VIL raise debt capital. Subscriber and ARPU trends will be key monitorables, it said.
"Due to limited potential upside from current levels, we downgrade Vi to Neutral (from Buy); and value the stock based on 14 times FY28 EV/Ebitda – higher than 12 times we assign to Bharti Airtel and Jio (subsidiary of Reliance Industries), given VIL’s higher earnings CAGR potential," Nomura said while suggesting a target of Rs 12.60.
Earlier, Citi had suggested a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 14. UBS had a ‘Neutral’ rating with a target of Rs 12.40, while Macquarie suggested an ‘Underperform’ rating on Vodafone Idea with a target price of Rs 9. Separately, JM Financial raised its target price on VIL by 55 per cent to Rs 14 from Rs 9
Nuvama said VIL appears to be making steady progress with improvement in ARPU and subscriber additions on one hand and reassessment of AGR dues and the 10-year moratorium on the other. "However, investor attention remains focused on the delayed debt fund raise, which is critical to support capex, along with sustainability of subscriber net addition and ARPU growth. Maintain ‘HOLD’," it said.
MOFSL said the management’s ambitions of double-digit revenue growth and increasing cash Ebitda by three times over FY26-29 remain a tall ask and would require several things such as closure of the debt raise, sustained tariff hikes or a change in tariff construct, stabilization in subscriber trends, more rational competition in subscriber acquisition, and continuation of a benign regulatory regime, including likely relief on spectrum repayment.
"We note that not all of these variables are in management’s control. Moreover, if Vi were to emerge as a competitive third player, we would expect peers with superior FCF, network, and product offerings to raise competitive intensity," it said. The stock was recently in news as VIL board decided to issue fully-convertible warrants of Rs 4,730 crore, roughly $500 million, to the Birla group family entity on preferential basis, at an exercise price of Rs 11 per warrant. On full conversion, the government's stake in Vodafone Idea is likely to dilute to 47.1 per cent from 49 per cent currently and Vodafone Plc group stake would fall to 15.5 per cent from 16.1 per cent, whereas Aditya Birla Group stake would rise to 13 per cent from 9.6 per cent.
"Our TP has also been revised to Rs 14 per share due to reduction in debt by Rs 55,000 crore post AGR relief). We maintain ADD. Key variables to monitor remains lenders’ approval of Rs 25,000 crore debt-raise and its impact on VIL’s subs market share trends, and any potential relief on huge spectrum dues of Rs 1,27,400 crore like AGR relief," JM Financial said.
Vodafone Idea Ltd, whose shares have soared 93.15 per cent in the past one year and 111 per cent from August 2025 closing lows, has received target prices in a wide range of Rs 9-14 per share following its March quarter results. In a fresh note, Nuvama said capex remains elevated and it is an uphill task for Vodafone Idea to meet financial obligations. Similarly MOFSL said everything must go right for Vodafone Idea for the long-term revival. Among fresh targets, Nuvama suggested 'Hold' rating and a target price of Rs 13.50 per share. MOFSL, which is neutral on the stock, suggested a revised target of Rs 10 on VIL against Rs 9.50 earlier. Nomura said The warrant issuance to promoters may help VIL raise debt capital. Subscriber and ARPU trends will be key monitorables, it said.
"Due to limited potential upside from current levels, we downgrade Vi to Neutral (from Buy); and value the stock based on 14 times FY28 EV/Ebitda – higher than 12 times we assign to Bharti Airtel and Jio (subsidiary of Reliance Industries), given VIL’s higher earnings CAGR potential," Nomura said while suggesting a target of Rs 12.60.
Earlier, Citi had suggested a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 14. UBS had a ‘Neutral’ rating with a target of Rs 12.40, while Macquarie suggested an ‘Underperform’ rating on Vodafone Idea with a target price of Rs 9. Separately, JM Financial raised its target price on VIL by 55 per cent to Rs 14 from Rs 9
Nuvama said VIL appears to be making steady progress with improvement in ARPU and subscriber additions on one hand and reassessment of AGR dues and the 10-year moratorium on the other. "However, investor attention remains focused on the delayed debt fund raise, which is critical to support capex, along with sustainability of subscriber net addition and ARPU growth. Maintain ‘HOLD’," it said.
MOFSL said the management’s ambitions of double-digit revenue growth and increasing cash Ebitda by three times over FY26-29 remain a tall ask and would require several things such as closure of the debt raise, sustained tariff hikes or a change in tariff construct, stabilization in subscriber trends, more rational competition in subscriber acquisition, and continuation of a benign regulatory regime, including likely relief on spectrum repayment.
"We note that not all of these variables are in management’s control. Moreover, if Vi were to emerge as a competitive third player, we would expect peers with superior FCF, network, and product offerings to raise competitive intensity," it said. The stock was recently in news as VIL board decided to issue fully-convertible warrants of Rs 4,730 crore, roughly $500 million, to the Birla group family entity on preferential basis, at an exercise price of Rs 11 per warrant. On full conversion, the government's stake in Vodafone Idea is likely to dilute to 47.1 per cent from 49 per cent currently and Vodafone Plc group stake would fall to 15.5 per cent from 16.1 per cent, whereas Aditya Birla Group stake would rise to 13 per cent from 9.6 per cent.
"Our TP has also been revised to Rs 14 per share due to reduction in debt by Rs 55,000 crore post AGR relief). We maintain ADD. Key variables to monitor remains lenders’ approval of Rs 25,000 crore debt-raise and its impact on VIL’s subs market share trends, and any potential relief on huge spectrum dues of Rs 1,27,400 crore like AGR relief," JM Financial said.