Vodafone Idea shares up 50% in 2025; where is the stock headed?
Vodafone Idea: To prevent a duopoly in the strategically important digital infrastructure sector, Ambit Capital expects the government to support the company via a two-year moratorium on the AGR front.
- Dec 30, 2025,
- Updated Dec 30, 2025 1:23 PM IST
Vodafone Idea saw its shares rally about 50 per cent in 2025 so far, beating Bharti Airtel’s 31.35 per cent return over the same period. Analyst target prices on the stock offered mixed prospects. At 1 pm, the telecom stock was trading at Rs 11.99 apiece.
Among brokerages, Ambit Capital has cut its target price on Vodafone Idea Ltd (VI) to Rs 15.10 apiece from Rs 15.40 apiece, as it moderated near-term average revenue per user (ARPU) assumption, in line with other telecom operators. The target still suggests 26 per cent potential upside. The brokerage retained its 'Buy' rating on the stock, saying subscriber growth holds the key.
JM Financial has an 'Add' rating on the stock with a target of Rs 11.50. MOFSL has a target of Rs 10 on the stock.
Unlike Bharti Airtel and Jio, VI would not be able to tap adjacencies, Ambit Capital said last week, while expecting VI to start adding net subscribers in FY28.
"Burden of government dues, along with inability to raise funds to carry out capex, led VI to lose 1,881bps customer market share since its 2018 merger (17.1 per cent currently). To prevent a duopoly in the strategically important digital infrastructure sector, we believe the government would come out to support the company via a two-year moratorium on the AGR front," Ambit Capital said.
This brokerage cited media reports that indicate that the government would not just provide VI a moratorium but is also mulling a part-AGR waiver.
"The latter isn’t part of our current target price. We remain BUYers on the hopes of a supportive government stance that would help the company raise funds and carry out capex, necessitated to catch up with the two dominant telcos (~340k for Bharti vs 195k towers for VI)," Ambit Capital said.
VI has raised Rs 22,000 crore via equity since February 2024. It recently raised Rs 3,300 crore debt funds via the issuance of non-convertible debentures. After the government’s AGR reprieve, Ambit Capital expects banks to be forthcoming with debt funding as VI’s long-term debt is now investment grade.
The brokerage said VI would not be able to make the Rs 17,400 crore FY28 deferred spectrum payments and therefore expects VI to continue raising equity or debt for funding its capex.
"The government has always wanted to have healthy competition within the telecom sector. Therefore, despite near-bankruptcy condition of VI after the AGR case, government took numerous steps to bring respite to it and Airtel. But VI still needs government support in FY26/27 as it won’t be able to make deferred spectrum/AGR payments even with a 15 per cent tariff hike in 2026. Key risk for the sector is the government favouring a new entrant instead of waiving off/deferring its dues," Ambit said.
JM Financial in a December 7 note said key monitorables that can pose upside risks to its estimates include a relief from government dues either via higher waiver of AGR dues and/or allowing surrender of pre-2022 spectrum, conversion of more dues to equity and extension of moratorium.
A multiple sharp tariff hikes that can result in VIL’s blended ARPU being significantly above present estimate of Rs 183, Rs 207 and Rs 229 for FY26, FY27 and FY28, would also pose upside risks, JM said.
Vodafone Idea saw its shares rally about 50 per cent in 2025 so far, beating Bharti Airtel’s 31.35 per cent return over the same period. Analyst target prices on the stock offered mixed prospects. At 1 pm, the telecom stock was trading at Rs 11.99 apiece.
Among brokerages, Ambit Capital has cut its target price on Vodafone Idea Ltd (VI) to Rs 15.10 apiece from Rs 15.40 apiece, as it moderated near-term average revenue per user (ARPU) assumption, in line with other telecom operators. The target still suggests 26 per cent potential upside. The brokerage retained its 'Buy' rating on the stock, saying subscriber growth holds the key.
JM Financial has an 'Add' rating on the stock with a target of Rs 11.50. MOFSL has a target of Rs 10 on the stock.
Unlike Bharti Airtel and Jio, VI would not be able to tap adjacencies, Ambit Capital said last week, while expecting VI to start adding net subscribers in FY28.
"Burden of government dues, along with inability to raise funds to carry out capex, led VI to lose 1,881bps customer market share since its 2018 merger (17.1 per cent currently). To prevent a duopoly in the strategically important digital infrastructure sector, we believe the government would come out to support the company via a two-year moratorium on the AGR front," Ambit Capital said.
This brokerage cited media reports that indicate that the government would not just provide VI a moratorium but is also mulling a part-AGR waiver.
"The latter isn’t part of our current target price. We remain BUYers on the hopes of a supportive government stance that would help the company raise funds and carry out capex, necessitated to catch up with the two dominant telcos (~340k for Bharti vs 195k towers for VI)," Ambit Capital said.
VI has raised Rs 22,000 crore via equity since February 2024. It recently raised Rs 3,300 crore debt funds via the issuance of non-convertible debentures. After the government’s AGR reprieve, Ambit Capital expects banks to be forthcoming with debt funding as VI’s long-term debt is now investment grade.
The brokerage said VI would not be able to make the Rs 17,400 crore FY28 deferred spectrum payments and therefore expects VI to continue raising equity or debt for funding its capex.
"The government has always wanted to have healthy competition within the telecom sector. Therefore, despite near-bankruptcy condition of VI after the AGR case, government took numerous steps to bring respite to it and Airtel. But VI still needs government support in FY26/27 as it won’t be able to make deferred spectrum/AGR payments even with a 15 per cent tariff hike in 2026. Key risk for the sector is the government favouring a new entrant instead of waiving off/deferring its dues," Ambit said.
JM Financial in a December 7 note said key monitorables that can pose upside risks to its estimates include a relief from government dues either via higher waiver of AGR dues and/or allowing surrender of pre-2022 spectrum, conversion of more dues to equity and extension of moratorium.
A multiple sharp tariff hikes that can result in VIL’s blended ARPU being significantly above present estimate of Rs 183, Rs 207 and Rs 229 for FY26, FY27 and FY28, would also pose upside risks, JM said.