Waaree Energies: YES Securities, Nomura India shares target prices post Q2 results

A couple of brokerages are positive on Waaree Energies following its strong September-quarter performance, driven by higher volumes, backward integration benefits, and robust demand across domestic and international markets.

Nomura said Waaree Energies delivered another healthy beat on estimates, with revenue and Ebitda surging 70 per cent and 168 per cent year-on-year, respectively. Module production stood at 2.6 GW (up 37 per cent YoY and 13 per cent QoQ), while cell output was 0.6 GW. Revenue came in at Rs 6,060 crore, up 70 per cent YoY and 37 per cent QoQ, exceeding both Nomura and Bloomberg consensus estimates by about 20 per cent.

Ebitda margin expanded 850 basis points (bps) YoY to 23.2 per cent, driven by a 1,265 bps improvement in gross margin owing to backward integration and operational efficiencies. However, higher export-related costs partly offset the gains, as other expenses rose 176 per cent YoY due to export duties on goods in transit. The management expects these expenses to normalise to around 6 per cent of sales from the current 9.1 per cent over the next few quarters.

Nomura noted that management sees sustained demand in both India and the US, supported by policy tailwinds, GST cuts, and rising solar adoption by data centers. In 1HFY26, India added 22 GW of solar capacity, while the US added 18 GW in 1HCY25. Waaree’s order pipeline remains strong at 100 GW. Nomura added that backward-integrated domestic players like Waaree stand to benefit from the proposed implementation of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) for cells and wafers from June 2026 and June 2028, respectively.

To capture growing opportunities, Waaree is ramping up capacities rapidly. Domestic and US module capacities rose to 16.1 GW and 2.6 GW, respectively, in Q2FY26, aided by the acquisition of Meyer Burger’s US assets. Nomura estimates module, cell, and wafer capacities to reach 26.7 GW, 17.4 GW, and 11 GW by FY28 under a capex plan, which also includes investments in battery energy storage systems (BESS) and solar inverters. These businesses are expected to start contributing to revenue from FY28, aligning with the company’s goal of evolving into a diversified green energy platform.

Nomura maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Waaree Energies and raised its target price to Rs 3,890, valuing the stock at 13x Dec’27F EV/Ebitda. The brokerage marginally increased its FY26–28 EBITDA estimates by 1–2 per cent on stronger-than-expected capacity expansion and upbeat management commentary.

YES Securities: Expects near doubling of Ebitda in FY26

YES Securities projected that Waaree Energies will operate 16.1 GW of domestic and 2.6 GW of US module capacity, along with 5.4 GW of cell capacity in FY26. The firm’s order book (includes multi-year US call-offs under IRA-linked projects. YES Securities expects Ebitda to rise to Rs 5,500–6,000 crore in FY26 from Rs 2,600 crore in FY25, with margins expanding about 440 bps to 23.3 per cent, driven by higher DCR share, ramp-up of cell operations, and export-related advance payments.

It suggested a target price of Rs 4,610 on the stock.

YES Securities, however, cautioned that timely PLI fund transfers, cost discipline during concurrent greenfield and retrofit projects, and policy stability under the US IRA remain key to meeting management’s FY26 targets.