Waaree, Premier Energies: What Kotak says on ALMM List III
For Waaree and Premier, which have already announced ambitious expansion plans in upstream solar manufacturing, the draft marks a potential inflection point.
- Sep 16, 2025,
- Updated Sep 16, 2025 11:17 AM IST
Solar players Waaree Energies and Premier Energies may be among the biggest beneficiaries of the government’s latest move to deepen local manufacturing in the renewable value chain. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), on September 12, 2025, floated a draft amendment proposing ALMM List III for wafers, with an effective date of June 1, 2028.
For Waaree and Premier, which have already announced ambitious expansion plans in upstream solar manufacturing, the draft marks a potential inflection point. Kotak Institutional Equities said companies that set up wafer capacity early could enjoy superior margins in FY2029/30, ahead of supply-demand parity expected by FY2031. Since ingot-wafer manufacturing is capital-intensive and technologically complex, execution speed will be crucial.
As per the draft, projects commissioned after June 2028 under net metering and open access will mandatorily use ALMM-compliant wafers, while utility-scale projects will follow one month after the first list is issued.
The list itself will only be published once India has at least three independent wafer plants with a combined 15 GW capacity. With India currently at just 2 GW—entirely from Adani—the race is open for players like Waaree and Premier to grab early share.
Kotak said while the amendment is still in its early stages, its evolution will be a key monitorable for both Waaree and Premier. “The opportunity is clear—those who move first can secure higher margins until the market balances out. But policy revisions and execution timelines remain variables,” it said.
While the brokerage believes that amendment in its current form may be beneficial for Waaree and Premier if their capacities come on stream, it has not factored in the impact on our estimates, since the amendment is still in its early stages and might see revisions over due course.
"We forecast demand for ALMM list III wafer to come in three stages: (1) net metering and open access (2) utility scale and (3) DCR projects (PM Surya Ghar, PM KUSUM, CPSU). We expect Indian wafer demand to reach 45-50 GW by FY2031," it said.
India is currently in a nascent stage when it comes to wafer manufacturing, with only 2GW capacity commissioned so far by Adani. However, going forth Kotak expects significant investments in the space from large- and medium-sized players. Based on the announcement made by key players in the space, it expects wafer manufacturing capacity to reach 50-60 GW by FY2028/29, which will be able to meet domestic demand.
Solar players Waaree Energies and Premier Energies may be among the biggest beneficiaries of the government’s latest move to deepen local manufacturing in the renewable value chain. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), on September 12, 2025, floated a draft amendment proposing ALMM List III for wafers, with an effective date of June 1, 2028.
For Waaree and Premier, which have already announced ambitious expansion plans in upstream solar manufacturing, the draft marks a potential inflection point. Kotak Institutional Equities said companies that set up wafer capacity early could enjoy superior margins in FY2029/30, ahead of supply-demand parity expected by FY2031. Since ingot-wafer manufacturing is capital-intensive and technologically complex, execution speed will be crucial.
As per the draft, projects commissioned after June 2028 under net metering and open access will mandatorily use ALMM-compliant wafers, while utility-scale projects will follow one month after the first list is issued.
The list itself will only be published once India has at least three independent wafer plants with a combined 15 GW capacity. With India currently at just 2 GW—entirely from Adani—the race is open for players like Waaree and Premier to grab early share.
Kotak said while the amendment is still in its early stages, its evolution will be a key monitorable for both Waaree and Premier. “The opportunity is clear—those who move first can secure higher margins until the market balances out. But policy revisions and execution timelines remain variables,” it said.
While the brokerage believes that amendment in its current form may be beneficial for Waaree and Premier if their capacities come on stream, it has not factored in the impact on our estimates, since the amendment is still in its early stages and might see revisions over due course.
"We forecast demand for ALMM list III wafer to come in three stages: (1) net metering and open access (2) utility scale and (3) DCR projects (PM Surya Ghar, PM KUSUM, CPSU). We expect Indian wafer demand to reach 45-50 GW by FY2031," it said.
India is currently in a nascent stage when it comes to wafer manufacturing, with only 2GW capacity commissioned so far by Adani. However, going forth Kotak expects significant investments in the space from large- and medium-sized players. Based on the announcement made by key players in the space, it expects wafer manufacturing capacity to reach 50-60 GW by FY2028/29, which will be able to meet domestic demand.