West Asia war hits Indian Hotels outlook, stock gets a downgrade post Q4 earnings
Elara pared its estimates and lowered its growth and profitability assumptions due to the war in West Asia. Subsequently, Indian Hotels shares slipped 3.30% to Rs 637.40 today
- May 12, 2026,
- Updated May 12, 2026 2:26 PM IST
Shares of Indian Hotels Company Ltd, a Tata Group firm, have received a downgrade post Q4 earnings. Elara Capital revised its outlook to 'Accumulate' from 'buy' with a lower target price of Rs 716. The brokerage said headwinds from the West Asia conflict hit the MICE business and inbound travel in March for the company. Elara pared its estimates and lowered its growth and profitability assumptions due to the war in West Asia.
"We revise IH to Accumulate from Buy with a lower TP of Rs 716 from Rs 858 based on SoTP. We introduce FY29E estimates," said Elara.
The brokerage expects a 14% CAGR in topline in FY27E, led by 400-key additions in owned portfolio, 5.5% RevPAR growth, 20% growth in management fee income and growth driven by its new acquisitions (ANK, Atmantan Pride and Brij).
After the earnings, Indian Hotels shares slipped 3.30% to Rs 637.40 today against the previous close of Rs 660.95. Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 90,957 crore.
The hotel sector stock has lost 17% in a year and slipped 14% in 2026.
On the other hand, MOFSL expects a 19% rise in the hotel sector stock while retaining its 'buy' call.
The brokerage said business trends remained stable despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. While international destinations such as Dubai and the Maldives saw softer demand and London remained steady, domestic demand continued to be the primary growth driver. Business trends were sluggish in early April, but demand stabilised by mid-month and has since seen healthy growth momentum.
According to MOFSL, the company's growth outlook remains optimistic despite near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, led by healthy traction in the core business as well as new and reimagined businesses.
"We expect the strong momentum to continue in the medium term, led by: 1) a strong room addition pipeline in owned/management hotels (6,400/24,900 rooms), 2) strategic acquisitions, 3) continued favorable demand-supply dynamics, and 4) increasing MICE activities in India. We broadly maintain our FY27/FY28 EBITDA estimates and reiterate BUY with our SoTP-based TP of Rs 785," said MOFSL.
Another brokerage Nuvama upgraded the stock to 'hold' from 'reduce'.
"We have tweaked FY27E/28E revenue and EBITDA estimates by +1.7/+1.9% and +1.1/+0.7%. The recent correction along with higher visibility of non-LFL growth has prompted us to upgrade the stock from ‘REDUCE’ to ‘HOLD’ and revise the target price to Rs 676 (Rs 636 earlier). The stock currently trades at 27x/23x FY27E/28E EV/EBITDA multiple," said Nuvama.
Indian Hotels reported a 14.8% YoY (year-on-year) rise in it net profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025-26. The company's profit came at Rs 600 crore compared to the year ago period's Rs 522 crore. The firm's revenue rose 14% YoY to Rs 2,765 crore in comparison to Rs 2,425 crore in the preceding financial year. Its EBITDA (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) rose 13.5% YoY to Rs 973 crore compared to the previous year's Rs 857 crore.
The company announced a dividend of Rs 3.25 per share. The dividend will be disbursed wthin five days from the date of the company's upcoming annual general meeting.
Shares of Indian Hotels Company Ltd, a Tata Group firm, have received a downgrade post Q4 earnings. Elara Capital revised its outlook to 'Accumulate' from 'buy' with a lower target price of Rs 716. The brokerage said headwinds from the West Asia conflict hit the MICE business and inbound travel in March for the company. Elara pared its estimates and lowered its growth and profitability assumptions due to the war in West Asia.
"We revise IH to Accumulate from Buy with a lower TP of Rs 716 from Rs 858 based on SoTP. We introduce FY29E estimates," said Elara.
The brokerage expects a 14% CAGR in topline in FY27E, led by 400-key additions in owned portfolio, 5.5% RevPAR growth, 20% growth in management fee income and growth driven by its new acquisitions (ANK, Atmantan Pride and Brij).
After the earnings, Indian Hotels shares slipped 3.30% to Rs 637.40 today against the previous close of Rs 660.95. Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 90,957 crore.
The hotel sector stock has lost 17% in a year and slipped 14% in 2026.
On the other hand, MOFSL expects a 19% rise in the hotel sector stock while retaining its 'buy' call.
The brokerage said business trends remained stable despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. While international destinations such as Dubai and the Maldives saw softer demand and London remained steady, domestic demand continued to be the primary growth driver. Business trends were sluggish in early April, but demand stabilised by mid-month and has since seen healthy growth momentum.
According to MOFSL, the company's growth outlook remains optimistic despite near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, led by healthy traction in the core business as well as new and reimagined businesses.
"We expect the strong momentum to continue in the medium term, led by: 1) a strong room addition pipeline in owned/management hotels (6,400/24,900 rooms), 2) strategic acquisitions, 3) continued favorable demand-supply dynamics, and 4) increasing MICE activities in India. We broadly maintain our FY27/FY28 EBITDA estimates and reiterate BUY with our SoTP-based TP of Rs 785," said MOFSL.
Another brokerage Nuvama upgraded the stock to 'hold' from 'reduce'.
"We have tweaked FY27E/28E revenue and EBITDA estimates by +1.7/+1.9% and +1.1/+0.7%. The recent correction along with higher visibility of non-LFL growth has prompted us to upgrade the stock from ‘REDUCE’ to ‘HOLD’ and revise the target price to Rs 676 (Rs 636 earlier). The stock currently trades at 27x/23x FY27E/28E EV/EBITDA multiple," said Nuvama.
Indian Hotels reported a 14.8% YoY (year-on-year) rise in it net profit for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025-26. The company's profit came at Rs 600 crore compared to the year ago period's Rs 522 crore. The firm's revenue rose 14% YoY to Rs 2,765 crore in comparison to Rs 2,425 crore in the preceding financial year. Its EBITDA (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) rose 13.5% YoY to Rs 973 crore compared to the previous year's Rs 857 crore.
The company announced a dividend of Rs 3.25 per share. The dividend will be disbursed wthin five days from the date of the company's upcoming annual general meeting.