Will Nifty break 26,500? Ashish Chaturmohta on Reliance Jio IPO, RBI rate cut & sectors
Chaturmohta said a rate cut from the current 5.50 per cent repo rate would ease systemic liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and stimulate credit demand, with consumer durables, autos, housing, and NBFCs standing to gain the most.
- Dec 4, 2025,
- Updated Dec 4, 2025 4:55 PM IST
Equity markets may remain range-bound in the near term as the Nifty continues to face stiff resistance in the 26,100–26,300 zone, says Ashish Chaturmohta, Managing Director & Fund Manager, Apex PMS, JM Financial Ltd.
In an interview with Ritik Raj of Business Today, Chaturmohta said that the RBI’s upcoming policy decision will play a pivotal role in shaping equity valuations and sector performance.
Chaturmohta said a rate cut from the current 5.50 per cent repo rate would ease systemic liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and stimulate credit demand, with consumer durables, autos, housing, and NBFCs standing to gain the most.
Do you expect Nifty to break out above 26,500 by year-end, or will profit-booking and liquidity constraints keep it capped? What technical and fundamental triggers should investors watch?
Nifty continues to face stiff resistance in the 26,100–26,300 zone, with repeated failures near 26,325, making fresh highs difficult without stronger momentum. A decisive daily or weekly close above 26,320–26,400, supported by strong volumes, is essential to confirm a breakout toward 26,500–27,000. On the downside, key supports sit at 25,800–25,900, with a deeper retracement toward 25,400 if these levels break. The weekly cup-and-handle pattern remains structurally bullish, but its execution hinges on a sustained move above 26,300+. Until then, Nifty is likely to stay range-bound with a mild upward bias. Key fundamental triggers to track include FII/DII flows, RBI’s rate stance, the Rupee trend, and broader global macro stability.
How will the RBI’s decision impact equity valuations and banking sector performance? If a rate cut happens, which sectors stand to gain most? With the policy repo rate at 5.50%, an RBI rate cut would ease systemic liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, typically stimulating credit demand across the economy. This backdrop supports earnings growth for lenders and for businesses dependent on external financing. Lower rates generally accelerate loan demand, positioning consumer durables, autos, housing, and NBFCs as the primary beneficiaries of a monetary-easing cycle. For banks, however, the impact is more nuanced. While cheaper funding and stronger credit growth act as clear tailwinds, near-term NIM compression is a risk if lending yields adjust downward faster than deposit costs. Banks with stronger liability franchises, granular retail deposits, and disciplined pricing power are best placed to absorb the initial margin pressure and capitalise on the subsequent credit-growth upcycle.
We are seeing a stark reversal where rural volume growth is finally outpacing urban growth after years of lag. Should investors be aggressively pivoting their portfolios toward rural-focused and entry-level stocks for 2026? The backdrop was building for a revival in rural consumption from the time government decided to put the pedal on reigniting the consumption by introducing various policy measures. Rural which constitutes ~45% of overall consumption was impacted for the last 2 years due to stagnant rural income, poor agricultural output and elevated inflation. Things have started to improve on account of income guarantee schemes, better rainfall outcomes and steady MSPs. The GST rationalisation does give an additional lever in terms of higher consumption in middle- and low-income households which are more price sensitive.
We remain positive on the revival in rural consumption however investors need to remain company specific which have an established business model, strategic market positioning, strong balance sheet and capable management teams.
With reports valuing the upcoming Reliance Jio IPO at up to $170 billion, we are looking at potentially the largest liquidity event in Indian history. If this hits in Q1/Q2 2026, should investors be raising cash levels now? Reports suggest bankers are evaluating a valuation range of up to $170 billion for Jio Platforms, with a potential listing timeline in 1H CY2026. However, the actual liquidity impact on markets is likely to be far lower. Under current SEBI regulations, a company of this size may only need to list a small initial float, meaning only a limited percentage of equity will be offered in the IPO. Since there is still no clarity on the exact percentage of equity that will be liquidated, investors may prefer to wait for more concrete details before adjusting cash levels.
Equity markets may remain range-bound in the near term as the Nifty continues to face stiff resistance in the 26,100–26,300 zone, says Ashish Chaturmohta, Managing Director & Fund Manager, Apex PMS, JM Financial Ltd.
In an interview with Ritik Raj of Business Today, Chaturmohta said that the RBI’s upcoming policy decision will play a pivotal role in shaping equity valuations and sector performance.
Chaturmohta said a rate cut from the current 5.50 per cent repo rate would ease systemic liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and stimulate credit demand, with consumer durables, autos, housing, and NBFCs standing to gain the most.
Do you expect Nifty to break out above 26,500 by year-end, or will profit-booking and liquidity constraints keep it capped? What technical and fundamental triggers should investors watch?
Nifty continues to face stiff resistance in the 26,100–26,300 zone, with repeated failures near 26,325, making fresh highs difficult without stronger momentum. A decisive daily or weekly close above 26,320–26,400, supported by strong volumes, is essential to confirm a breakout toward 26,500–27,000. On the downside, key supports sit at 25,800–25,900, with a deeper retracement toward 25,400 if these levels break. The weekly cup-and-handle pattern remains structurally bullish, but its execution hinges on a sustained move above 26,300+. Until then, Nifty is likely to stay range-bound with a mild upward bias. Key fundamental triggers to track include FII/DII flows, RBI’s rate stance, the Rupee trend, and broader global macro stability.
How will the RBI’s decision impact equity valuations and banking sector performance? If a rate cut happens, which sectors stand to gain most? With the policy repo rate at 5.50%, an RBI rate cut would ease systemic liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, typically stimulating credit demand across the economy. This backdrop supports earnings growth for lenders and for businesses dependent on external financing. Lower rates generally accelerate loan demand, positioning consumer durables, autos, housing, and NBFCs as the primary beneficiaries of a monetary-easing cycle. For banks, however, the impact is more nuanced. While cheaper funding and stronger credit growth act as clear tailwinds, near-term NIM compression is a risk if lending yields adjust downward faster than deposit costs. Banks with stronger liability franchises, granular retail deposits, and disciplined pricing power are best placed to absorb the initial margin pressure and capitalise on the subsequent credit-growth upcycle.
We are seeing a stark reversal where rural volume growth is finally outpacing urban growth after years of lag. Should investors be aggressively pivoting their portfolios toward rural-focused and entry-level stocks for 2026? The backdrop was building for a revival in rural consumption from the time government decided to put the pedal on reigniting the consumption by introducing various policy measures. Rural which constitutes ~45% of overall consumption was impacted for the last 2 years due to stagnant rural income, poor agricultural output and elevated inflation. Things have started to improve on account of income guarantee schemes, better rainfall outcomes and steady MSPs. The GST rationalisation does give an additional lever in terms of higher consumption in middle- and low-income households which are more price sensitive.
We remain positive on the revival in rural consumption however investors need to remain company specific which have an established business model, strategic market positioning, strong balance sheet and capable management teams.
With reports valuing the upcoming Reliance Jio IPO at up to $170 billion, we are looking at potentially the largest liquidity event in Indian history. If this hits in Q1/Q2 2026, should investors be raising cash levels now? Reports suggest bankers are evaluating a valuation range of up to $170 billion for Jio Platforms, with a potential listing timeline in 1H CY2026. However, the actual liquidity impact on markets is likely to be far lower. Under current SEBI regulations, a company of this size may only need to list a small initial float, meaning only a limited percentage of equity will be offered in the IPO. Since there is still no clarity on the exact percentage of equity that will be liquidated, investors may prefer to wait for more concrete details before adjusting cash levels.