'Asset prices are likely to peak in 2026': Hedge fund manager points to 100-year market pattern
According to Banner Chart, 2026 is a good time to sell stocks. This is when asset prices are likely to peak, says Akshat Shrivastava
- Dec 28, 2025,
- Updated Dec 28, 2025 9:41 AM IST
Asset prices are likely to peak in 2026, and investors should prepare not for a dramatic exit from equities but for smarter risk management, hedge fund manager and Wisdom Hatch founder Akshat Shrivastava has warned, citing a century-old market indicator and the global interest-rate cycle.
In a detailed note, Shrivastava pointed to the Banner Chart, a 100-year-old market prediction framework, to argue that 2026 could mark a cyclical high for equities. "According to Banner Chart, 2026 is a good time to sell stocks. This is when asset prices are likely to peak," he wrote, adding context for readers unfamiliar with the indicator: "For folks who don't know what Banner Chart is: this is a 100-year-old prediction about stock markets. It predicts the 'crisis' years like 1981, 1999, 2019 etc."
Shrivastava acknowledged the limitations of such forecasting tools but said their historical accuracy warranted attention. "Like all predictions, there are flaws in this prediction. But, the hit rate on this chart has been quite phenomenal," he noted.
He cautioned investors against misreading what "selling equities" actually means. "To an amateur, selling equities means: that 100 units of money in equity. Sell 100 units. Get out. Wait for crash," he wrote, calling this approach misguided. "This is quite dumb. Because market can first rally by another 50%. And, then fall by 30%."
Instead, Shrivastava argued for a more measured strategy. "A more practical version of selling equity means: ability to buy when drawdown happens," he wrote, outlining tools such as "sensible cash positions, hedges like put options etc. And, learn portfolio construction."
Explaining why 2026 could be a turning point, Shrivastava rooted his argument in macroeconomics and interest rates. "This is quite simple: asset prices are a function of low interest rates (IR). Why? because when people can borrow cheap. They will buy and invest more," he wrote.
He added that leverage across the global economy has been driven by interest rates, noting, "Most of the world is now leveraged. And, leverage is driven by Interest Rates. As a lot of refinancing of debt happens when IR goes low."
Shrivastava linked this directly to equity markets. "Stock Markets are forward-looking. Stock Prices (i.e equity prices) are driven by ‘expectation’ of low interest rates," he wrote, arguing that markets tend to price in policy shifts well in advance.
He pointed to developments over the past year to support his case. "2025 we got clarity on IR. Most major economies (except Japan) started cutting Interest Rates," he said, adding that political pressure has also played a role. Shrivastava referred to public pressure by Donald Trump on Jerome Powell, writing: "There has been public pressure by Trump on US's FED chair Jerome Powell to cut IR. Powell is likely to be replaced by a someone who is willing to cut IR in 2026."
As a result, the fund manager said, "the expectation of low IR is likely to be fully baked into the markets in 2026."
While inflation is typically the main counterforce to aggressive rate cuts, he argued that current conditions allow policymakers room to act. "The negative force against low IR is high inflation. But, inflation is NOT high (at least on paper). Hence, the above macro theory adds up," he wrote. "In simple words: the government can afford to cut IR to accelerate growth."
Markets, he added, are already responding. "Market understands this. And, will be repricing assets as we get more certainty on the above thesis."
On how investors can navigate this environment, Shrivastava stressed skill over shortcuts. "How do you make money in all this? If you know portfolio construction. And, can add/reduce risk on your portfolio through hedging, cash position management, bulk buying selected stocks, selling overvalued segments," he wrote.
Asset prices are likely to peak in 2026, and investors should prepare not for a dramatic exit from equities but for smarter risk management, hedge fund manager and Wisdom Hatch founder Akshat Shrivastava has warned, citing a century-old market indicator and the global interest-rate cycle.
In a detailed note, Shrivastava pointed to the Banner Chart, a 100-year-old market prediction framework, to argue that 2026 could mark a cyclical high for equities. "According to Banner Chart, 2026 is a good time to sell stocks. This is when asset prices are likely to peak," he wrote, adding context for readers unfamiliar with the indicator: "For folks who don't know what Banner Chart is: this is a 100-year-old prediction about stock markets. It predicts the 'crisis' years like 1981, 1999, 2019 etc."
Shrivastava acknowledged the limitations of such forecasting tools but said their historical accuracy warranted attention. "Like all predictions, there are flaws in this prediction. But, the hit rate on this chart has been quite phenomenal," he noted.
He cautioned investors against misreading what "selling equities" actually means. "To an amateur, selling equities means: that 100 units of money in equity. Sell 100 units. Get out. Wait for crash," he wrote, calling this approach misguided. "This is quite dumb. Because market can first rally by another 50%. And, then fall by 30%."
Instead, Shrivastava argued for a more measured strategy. "A more practical version of selling equity means: ability to buy when drawdown happens," he wrote, outlining tools such as "sensible cash positions, hedges like put options etc. And, learn portfolio construction."
Explaining why 2026 could be a turning point, Shrivastava rooted his argument in macroeconomics and interest rates. "This is quite simple: asset prices are a function of low interest rates (IR). Why? because when people can borrow cheap. They will buy and invest more," he wrote.
He added that leverage across the global economy has been driven by interest rates, noting, "Most of the world is now leveraged. And, leverage is driven by Interest Rates. As a lot of refinancing of debt happens when IR goes low."
Shrivastava linked this directly to equity markets. "Stock Markets are forward-looking. Stock Prices (i.e equity prices) are driven by ‘expectation’ of low interest rates," he wrote, arguing that markets tend to price in policy shifts well in advance.
He pointed to developments over the past year to support his case. "2025 we got clarity on IR. Most major economies (except Japan) started cutting Interest Rates," he said, adding that political pressure has also played a role. Shrivastava referred to public pressure by Donald Trump on Jerome Powell, writing: "There has been public pressure by Trump on US's FED chair Jerome Powell to cut IR. Powell is likely to be replaced by a someone who is willing to cut IR in 2026."
As a result, the fund manager said, "the expectation of low IR is likely to be fully baked into the markets in 2026."
While inflation is typically the main counterforce to aggressive rate cuts, he argued that current conditions allow policymakers room to act. "The negative force against low IR is high inflation. But, inflation is NOT high (at least on paper). Hence, the above macro theory adds up," he wrote. "In simple words: the government can afford to cut IR to accelerate growth."
Markets, he added, are already responding. "Market understands this. And, will be repricing assets as we get more certainty on the above thesis."
On how investors can navigate this environment, Shrivastava stressed skill over shortcuts. "How do you make money in all this? If you know portfolio construction. And, can add/reduce risk on your portfolio through hedging, cash position management, bulk buying selected stocks, selling overvalued segments," he wrote.