JM sees 29% rise in RIL amid China oil export suspension buzz; Chennai Petro, MRPL gain 5%
Shares of Reliance Industries, Chennai Petro and MPRL and other refineries hogged the spotlight on Thursday amid the reports that China may halt exports of diesel and gasoline.
- Mar 5, 2026,
- Updated Mar 5, 2026 2:49 PM IST
Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and other refineries hogged the spotlight on Thursday amid the reports that China may halt exports of diesel and gasoline. The buzz quickly stirred market sentiment as investors tracked developments closely as the potential change in global fuel flows could influence the regional refining market.
The news flow also impacted the stock prices of other companies including Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL). The stocks rose 5-6 per cent each during the trading session Thursday. On the other hand, shares of RIL jumped more than 3 per cent during the day.
Shares of RIL jumped more than 3.15 per cent to Rs 1,388 on Thursday, with a total market capitalization rising close to Rs 19 lakh crore. However, the stock is down more than 16 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 1,611.20, hit on January 6, 2026. Despite this fall, the stock is up nearly 25 per cent from its 52-week lows at 1,115.55, hit in April 2025.
Amid the news flow, domestic brokerage JM Financial Ltd considers the recent correction in Reliance Industries (RIL) share price as excessive, bringing the share price close to its bear-case valuation of around Rs 1,275 per share. This fall follows rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but JM Financial asserts that RIL's fundamentals remain intact.
RIL won’t be negatively impacted by the recent spike in crude and LNG prices. Instead, RIL could see near-term benefits due to jump in diesel crack on account of supply disruption risk; and likely rise in petrochem margin as petchem product prices are likely to rise along with crude price while its feedstock cost is unlikely to rise much as it has limited dependency on crude-linked naphtha), it said.
"We reiterate 'buy' on RIL with an unchanged target price of Rs 1,730 on comfortable valuations after the recent correction, as share price adequately factors concern around near-term weakness in retail business EBITDA growth on account of ramp-up in the quick commerce business," JM added.
However, it’s not discounting 15-16 per cent Ebitda-compounding story in Digital business over the next 2-3 years driven by 10-11 per cent ARPU CAGR; hence expect 14-16 per cent EPS CAGR for RIL over the next 3-5 years. Key triggers are Jio’s IPO in the next few months, assuming SEBI norms for large IPOs are notified in the next few weeks and likely telecom tariff hike post that, said the brokerage.
Among other counters, Chennai Petro jumped nearly 5.4 per cent to Rs 1053.85 on Thursday, while shares of MRPL gained 5.75 per cent to Rs 202.15 for the session, merely shy of its 52-week high at Rs 203.75. However, both the stocks gave up their gains as the session progressed.
Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and other refineries hogged the spotlight on Thursday amid the reports that China may halt exports of diesel and gasoline. The buzz quickly stirred market sentiment as investors tracked developments closely as the potential change in global fuel flows could influence the regional refining market.
The news flow also impacted the stock prices of other companies including Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL). The stocks rose 5-6 per cent each during the trading session Thursday. On the other hand, shares of RIL jumped more than 3 per cent during the day.
Shares of RIL jumped more than 3.15 per cent to Rs 1,388 on Thursday, with a total market capitalization rising close to Rs 19 lakh crore. However, the stock is down more than 16 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 1,611.20, hit on January 6, 2026. Despite this fall, the stock is up nearly 25 per cent from its 52-week lows at 1,115.55, hit in April 2025.
Amid the news flow, domestic brokerage JM Financial Ltd considers the recent correction in Reliance Industries (RIL) share price as excessive, bringing the share price close to its bear-case valuation of around Rs 1,275 per share. This fall follows rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but JM Financial asserts that RIL's fundamentals remain intact.
RIL won’t be negatively impacted by the recent spike in crude and LNG prices. Instead, RIL could see near-term benefits due to jump in diesel crack on account of supply disruption risk; and likely rise in petrochem margin as petchem product prices are likely to rise along with crude price while its feedstock cost is unlikely to rise much as it has limited dependency on crude-linked naphtha), it said.
"We reiterate 'buy' on RIL with an unchanged target price of Rs 1,730 on comfortable valuations after the recent correction, as share price adequately factors concern around near-term weakness in retail business EBITDA growth on account of ramp-up in the quick commerce business," JM added.
However, it’s not discounting 15-16 per cent Ebitda-compounding story in Digital business over the next 2-3 years driven by 10-11 per cent ARPU CAGR; hence expect 14-16 per cent EPS CAGR for RIL over the next 3-5 years. Key triggers are Jio’s IPO in the next few months, assuming SEBI norms for large IPOs are notified in the next few weeks and likely telecom tariff hike post that, said the brokerage.
Among other counters, Chennai Petro jumped nearly 5.4 per cent to Rs 1053.85 on Thursday, while shares of MRPL gained 5.75 per cent to Rs 202.15 for the session, merely shy of its 52-week high at Rs 203.75. However, both the stocks gave up their gains as the session progressed.