Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 135 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open on a cautious note on Wednesday as the prolonged geopolitical uncertainty kept the investors on risk-off mode. The delayed truce kept the oil price and Indian currency under pressure. Traders' focus now shifts towards RBI monetary policy due later this week.

Nifty is expected to trade in a broader range in the near term amid ongoing global macro uncertainty and sustained Foreign Institutional Investor outflows, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Broader markets may continue to witness stock-specific movement, while investor focus may remain on the RBI monetary policy outcome, keeping rate-sensitive sectors active."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 134.60 points, or 0.57 per cent, down at 23,468.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Markets got off to an uneven start in Asian trading on Wednesday. Nikkei was up nearly 3 per cent, while Hang Seng was tumbling but KOSPI was shut.

The US stocks closed modestly higher on Tuesday as risk appetite driven by AI fervor was counterbalanced by tensions arising from US-Iran talks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 228.91 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 51,307.79, the S&P 500 gained 9.94 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 7,609.90 and the Nasdaq Composite added 7.09 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 27,093.90.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Oil prices rose for a third day running on Wednesday as fresh hostilities flared in the Gulf after US-Iran peace talks stalled. US crude futures jumped around 2 per cent to $95.40 a barrel. Cryptocurrencies were tumbling, with bitcoin now down nearly 5 per cent. Persistent strength in the dollar sent the Japanese yen sliding to the key 160 level on Wednesday. The dollar was steady at 99.28.

The rebound was primarily driven by buying in heavyweight stocks across sectors despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia and continued foreign institutional selling, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Given the choppy market conditions, we maintain a cautious stance and recommend focusing on stock selection and disciplined trade management."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,362.92 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 9,589.32 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook Technically, the market has formed a promising reversal pattern on intraday charts, and a bullish candle has formed on daily charts, indicating a further uptrend from the current levels. The 23,300/74000 and 23,220/73800 would act as immediate support levels for day traders, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market is trading above these levels, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, for Nifty, it could bounce back to the 50-day SMA or 23,700, and the 20-day SMA or 23,770. For the Sensex, 75000 and 75300 levels are key resistance. On the flip side, below 23,220/73800, the sentiment could turn negative. If that level is breached, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he said.

The RSI continues to remain in a bearish crossover, indicating weak momentum. Nifty50 is trading below the 20-day EMA on the daily timeframe, reinforcing the negative bias, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Immediate support is placed at 23,420. A breach below this level could trigger another decline towards 23,200. On the upside, resistance is positioned around 23,600."

Sensex formed a strong recovery candle on the daily chart after taking support near the 73,800–74,000 zone, highlighting the presence of buyers at lower levels. On the upside, 75,000–75,250 remains the immediate resistance zone, while 73,800–74,000 will act as a crucial support area, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

The volatility index, India VIX, declined by 7 per cent to close near 15 levels. Any further moderation in volatility is likely to provide additional support to bullish sentiment, said Nilesh Jain, VP - Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank staged a rebound following a gap-down opening. It continues to trade below its key moving averages, indicating a cautious undertone in the near-term trend. The daily RSI has been moving in a sideways range for the past 38 trading sessions, reflecting a lack of directional strength and consolidation, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the 54,200–54,300 zone is expected to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above this zone could provide the required impetus for an upward move. On the downside, the 53,500–53,400 zone will serve as a crucial support area. A breach below 53,400 may intensify selling pressure, dragging the index towards the next important support level placed around 52,800," it said.

Bajaj Broking in the daily chart formed a bullish candle with a lower high and a lower low highlighting consolidation amid stock specific action. The index in the process snapped its four-session decline. Index is likely to extend consolidation in the range of 52,500-54,600; only a breakout or breakdown will signal a directional moment, said Bajaj Borking Research.

"It has key support placed at 52,700-52,500 being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous pullback (49,955-57,456). On the higher side resistance is placed at 54,600-55,000 levels being the confluence of current week high and 20 days EMA," it added.