Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 20 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are to open on a muted note, with mild optimism on Friday, led by supportive global cues over the US-Iran deal signals. However, persistent FII outflows and elevated crude oil price weighed on the sentiments. Traders will be looking at the India Inc numbers for stock specific action.

Investors are expected to remain focused on sector-specific opportunities amid mixed global cues, while easing volatility and sustained buying in mid- and small-cap stocks may continue to support market momentum in the near term, said Ankur Punj, MD & Business Head at Equirus Wealth.  

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 18.60 points, or 0.08 per cent, up at 23,650, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stocks rose on Friday as investors held on to hopes of a breakthrough in ‌US-Iran peace talks. Nikkei was up more than 2 per cent, while Hang and KOSPI inched up marginally.

Wall Street's main indices closed slightly higher after Thursday's choppy session as oil prices lost ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 276.31 points, or 0.55 per cent, to ​50,285.66, marking a record closing high. The S&P 500 gained 12.75 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 7,445.72 and the Nasdaq Composite added 22.74 points, or 0.09 per cent, to 26,293.10.  

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Brent crude futures rose 2 per cent to $104.71 a barrel but were set for a ‌6 per cent drop ⁠in the week. US West Texas Intermediate futures were up 1.66 per cent at $98.01. Against a basket of ​currencies, the dollar was at 99.247. Gold edged lower on Friday, on track for its second consecutive weekly loss. Spot gold was down 0.2 per cent at $4,534.29 per ounce.

Persistent foreign institutional outflows, elevated global bond yields, and concerns over inflationary pressures arising from high fuel prices continued to keep the undertone cautious, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to maintain a cautious stance and recommend a stock-specific trading approach while maintaining balanced exposure," he said.  

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,891.21 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,492.42 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50, VIX and Sensex outlook The market faced resistance near 23,850/76,000 and reversed. The short-term texture of the market is non-directional, and range-bound activity is likely to continue in the near future, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, 23,500-23,400/75,000-74,500 remain the crucial support zones, while 23,800-23,850/75,800-76,000 could act as key resistance areas for the bulls. On the positive side, a breakout above 23,850/76,000 could push the market up to 23,950-24,000/76,300-76,500, while below 23,400/74,500, it could retest the levels of 23,250-23,200/74,000-73,800," he said.

The sentiment continues to remain weak, with the possibility of further downside in the short term. 23,400 is likely to act as a crucial support level; a decisive breach below this mark may trigger panic selling in the market, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "It needs to move decisively above 23,800 to witness a directional rally and improve the near-term sentiment."

Sensex traded in a broader consolidation range, where 74,400–74,500 is likely to act as an immediate support zone, while 76,100–76,200 may remain a key resistance area, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking. "Sustaining above resistance levels could trigger fresh upside momentum, whereas weakness below support may increase short-term selling pressure."

The volatility index, India eased by 3.5 per cent to 17.80 levels, and any further cooling in volatility may provide some comfort to the bulls, said Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.  

Nifty Bank outlook Bank Nifty has opened with an upside gap but it has failed to sustain at higher levels and thereafter witnessed a correction. The 53,900–54,000 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "53,100–53,000 zones are expected to provide crucial support. A decisive break below the 53,000 level could intensify selling pressure."

Nifty Bank formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a higher low in the daily charts, signaling selling pressure at higher levels around the 54,000 levels. It is likely to consolidate in the range of 52,700-54,700. Bank Nifty holding above the key support area of 52,700-52,400 will lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000 and 54,700, said Bajaj Broking.

"The index need to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Key support is placed at 52,700-52,400 levels," it added.