Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 32 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices shares are likely to open with mild gains on Friday on the back of mixed global cues. While the Indian rupee continues to weaken on the back of high crude oil prices, US stocks posted gains in the overnight trade. Back home, Oil companies increased the prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 3 per litre.

The near-term outlook remains cautious despite Indian markets witnessing a strong rebound in the past two sessions. Persistent foreign outflows, elevated crude oil prices and the Indian rupee slipping to fresh record lows continue to pose key macro risks for the domestic market, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.  

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks

GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 32.10 points, or 0.14 per cent, up at 23,668, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Friday. Markets got off to an uneven start in Asian trading on Wednesday. KOSPI tanked more than 3 per cent, while Hang Seng and Nikkei were down a per cent each.

Stocks were higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average retaking 50,000 after strong earnings and a key meeting between US and China and rose 0.75 per cent to end at 50,063.46. The S&P 500 climbed 0.77 per cent and closed at 7,501.24, while the Nasdaq Composite  gained 0.88 per cent to 26,635.22. Those two indices hit fresh all-time intraday highs and record closes.  

Crude, US dollar, gold & more

Gold fell to a more than one-week low on Friday, and was set for a weekly decline, as higher energy prices fueled fears of inflation ​and prolonged higher interest rates, while investors focused on a meeting between ‌US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Spot gold fell 0.6 per cent to $4,619.49 per ounce, while Spot silver ​fell 1.7 per cent to $82.08 per ounce.

The dollar firmed on Friday and was set for its largest weekly ​gain in more than two months. The dollar was on the front foot, rising to a two-week high of 98.98 against a basket of currencies. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.57 per cent to $106.32 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were ​up 0.53 per cent to $101.71.

"The improvement in sentiment was supported by favourable global cues. The overall structure still suggests a sell-on-rise bias unless the index decisively surpasses the resistance band. We continue to recommend a stock-specific approach based on sectoral trends while maintaining caution on leveraged positions," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.  

FII-DII flows

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 187.46 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 684.33 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market took support near 23,400/74,500 after a gap-up open and bounced back sharply. It has formed a promising reversal pattern on intraday charts and a bullish candle on daily charts, which supports further uptrend from the current levels. For day traders, 23,500/74800 and 23,600/75100 would act as key support zones, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities

Above these levels, the pullback formation is likely to continue. On the higher side, the index could move up to the 50-day SMA or 23,850/76,200. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the index to 23,950–24,000/76,500-76,700. However, below 23,500/74,800, the uptrend would become vulnerable. In that case, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he adds.

Nifty continues to trade below the critical 20 EMA, indicating that the broader trend remains bearish. In the near term, a decisive move above 23,800 could trigger fresh upside momentum, potentially taking the index towards 24,200, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "However, failure to sustain above 23,800 may invite renewed selling pressure and bring the bears back into control of the market."

Immediate support for Sensex is now placed near 74,600 – 74,800, followed by stronger support around 74,500. On the upside, resistance is seen near 76,200 – 76,000, while a decisive breakout above this zone may open the path towards 76,500 in the near term, said Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.  

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank continues to trade below its key moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest a sideways trend in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. The 54,700–54,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained move above 54,800 could extend the pullback rally towards the 55,300 level. On the downside, the 53,600–53,500 zone is likely to serve as a crucial support.

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a lower low and a higher high highlighting volatility and strong pullback from the oversold territory after recent sharp decline. A move above the same will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,000 levels. While failure to move above the same will signal extension of the correction towards 53,500-53,000, said Bajaj Broking.

"From a short-term perspective, the index needs to start forming higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis in the daily chart and move above the recent breakdown area of 54,400-54,600 to signal a reversal of the corrective trend. The daily stochastic has rebounded from the oversold territory thus supporting the continuation of the pullback in the coming sessions," it added.