Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 345 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open sharply higher on Monday, tracking a global rally, while oil prices tumbled after US President Donald Trump and Iran's deputy foreign minister said an initial deal had been reached to end the war and resume traffic through the Strait of ‌Hormuz. The countries will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, said reports.

Indian equities may witness an uptrend as easing concerns surrounding the US-Iran conflict improve global risk sentiment. The market recovery suggests that investors are beginning to price in a more favourable geopolitical outcome, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Developments in the US-Iran negotiations, crude oil price movements and FIIs flows will remain key factors influencing market sentiment."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 344.90 points, or 1.46 per cent, up at 24,031.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Share markets surged in Asia on Monday as a tentative peace deal between the United States and Iran promised to ease inflationary pressures globally. Nikkei and KOSPI soared more than 5 per cent each, while Hang Seng inched higher.

US stocks ended higher on Friday as investors held out hope for a peace deal between Iran and the US and as SpaceX shares surged in their debut, making it Wall Street's biggest ‌public listing in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.70 per cent to 51,202.26, the S&P 500 gained 0.50 per cent to 7,431.46 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.31 per cent to 25,888.84.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more In commodity markets, the drop in yields helped gold climb 1.9 per cent to $4,300 an ounce. Markets had priced in a likely deal but the confirmation was enough to send Brent crude falling 4 per cent to $83.80 a barrel. The US dollar slid on Monday to a 10-day low against its ‌major peers as the dollar index fell 0.31 per cent to 99.492, the weakest level since June 5.

Markets are supported by policy measures and easing geopolitical concerns, offers near-term encouragement, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. Investors should continue to focus on fundamentally strong companies with healthy balance sheets, robust earnings visibility, and leadership positions. One should avoid excessive leverage and maintain disciplined risk management practices. 

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,082.18 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,341.29 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs remained net sellers of Indian equities, dumping stocks worth Rs 62,850 crore in the first fortnight of June 2026. 

Optimism around a potential US-Iran peace deal, a decline in crude oil prices, recovery in the Indian Rupee led to improvement in market sentiment, said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President of Research at Bajaj Broking. "FIIs flows will depend on the development of the US-Iran peace talks, the FOMC and bank of Japan rate decision & central bank commentary thereafter."

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook Markets cleared the 20-day SMA resistance mark, and post-breakout, positive momentum intensified. Technically, it has formed a strong reversal pattern on daily charts, and formed a long bullish candle on weekly charts, which is largely positive. 23,500/74,800 and 23,350/74,300 would act as key support zones positionally, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market is trading above these levels, the uptrend is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could continue rallying till 23,850/75,900 and 24,000-24,100/76,300-76,600. However, below 23,350/74,300, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he added.

Sensex formed a strong bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. The breakout from the prolonged sideways range suggests a potential trend reversal in favor of the bulls and signals the possibility of further upside momentum, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "Immediate support is placed at 74,500–74,700, while the next hurdle is seen at 76,000–76,200 resistance zone."

Nifty has rebounded sharply from the crucial support zone of 23,075 and reclaimed its 20-DMA, indicating strengthening momentum, RSI has also entered a bullish crossover, supporting the positive bias, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The bullish undertone is expected to persist as long as Nifty holds above the 23,500–23,450 support zone. On the upside, the index may gradually move towards the 24,000 mark; however, the 23,750–23,820 zone remains an immediate hurdle."

Nifty Bank & India VIX outlook Nifty Bank has emerged as a key outperformer over the past few trading sessions. It confirmed a breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the daily chart, triggering a strong upward move. From a technical standpoint, Bank Nifty is comfortably trading above its key moving averages, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

"The 20-day and 50-day EMAs are turning higher. Given the favorable price structure and strengthening momentum, we expect Bank Nifty to extend its upward trajectory and test the 57,500 level, followed by 58300 in the near term. On the downside, the zone of 56,200–56,000 is likely to provide strong support and act as a cushion against any short-term corrective moves," he added.

The volatility index, India VIX, declined sharply to break 15, and any further easing in volatility could provide additional support to the bullish outlook, said Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse adding that Nifty Bank witnessed a decisive breakout on the daily chart, above all its key short-term moving averages.

"A sustained move could trigger further upside towards the 57,500–58,000 zone. The momentum indicators remain supportive, with the MACD generating a bullish crossover and the RSI climbing above the 65 mark, signalling strengthening momentum. The broader technical structure remains positive, and a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable as long as it sustains above the 56,000," he said.