Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 76 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are set for a flat start on Friday as a US tech sell-off and subdued Asian cues keep sentiment restrained, while the absence of fresh domestic triggers reinforces consolidation. IT stocks will be in focus amid AI-disruption fears, while oil prices retreated from nearly seven-month highs.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 75.80 points, or 0.30 per cent, down at 25,560, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Dour sentiment persisted in the Asian trading day on Friday. KOSPI was down 0.7 per cent, while Nikkei shed one-fourth a per cent. Hang Seng was seen flat.

US stocks turned sharply lower on Thursday after earnings from artificial intelligence vanguard Nvidia failed to impress investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.05 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 49,499.20, the S&P 500 lost 37.27 points, or 0.54 per cent, to 6,908.86 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 273.69 points, or 1.18 per cent, to 22,878.38.

The dollar index rose 0.04 per cent to 97.77, with the euro little changed at $1.1797. The Indian rupee is set for another run at 91 per dollar on Friday, pressured by risk-off flows and modest dollar strength, putting the central bank's defence of that level under scrutiny.

Oil prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline after the United States and Iran extended talks over the OPEC member's nuclear programme, easing concerns about potential hostilities that could disrupt supply. While US crude rose 0.09 per cent to $65.27 a barrel, while spot gold fell 0.23 per cent to $5,175.03 an ounce.

Supportive global developments, including a recovery in global markets—especially the US—and continued strength in overseas technology stocks, helped ease some of the downside pressure, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants are advised to maintain a stock-specific approach, focus on sectors showing strength, and disciplined risk management."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,465.99 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,031.57 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market hovered throughout the day within the 25,400/82,000 to 25,570 /82,500 range after a muted open. The intraday activity was non-directional, with bearish candle indecisiveness between bulls and bears. The current market texture is non-directional, and traders are likely waiting for either side to breakout, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, 25,600/82,600 would be the immediate breakout zone for traders. Above this level, the market could rally towards 25,700-25,750/82,900-83,000. On the flip side, below 25,400/82,000, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If the level is breached, the market could slip to 25,300-25,275/81,700-81,600," he added.

On the daily charts, Nifty50 has been consistently failing to reclaim the 21-EMA, exhibiting an overall lack of strength. The RSI is in a bearish crossover, indicating weakening momentum, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The sentiment may remain weak in the near term, with a possibility of falling towards 25,300. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,550–25,600."

A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with lower shadow. Technically, this market action signals a lack of strength in the market to sustain the highs. Frequent lower highs have been formed recently and the repeated testing of the crucial lower supports was seen around 25400 levels, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"The underlying trend of Nifty remains choppy. Crucial lower supports to be watched around 25,400-25,350 levels on any weakness from here. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,600," he said.  

Nifty Bank outlook

The 60,800–60,700 range will continue to serve as a crucial support base for Nifty Bank. A sustained hold above this zone will maintain the positive undertone and prevent a deeper corrective move. On the upside, the region between 61,400–61,500 is expected to act as a significant resistance band, said By Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"If the index successfully surpasses this hurdle, it could pave the way for a near-term rally toward the 62,000 mark, followed by a potential extension toward 62,500 in the short term. Such a move would indicate a shift in momentum in favour of the bulls and could re-establish a stronger trending phase for the banking index," he said.

Nifty Bank formed a high wave candle with a small real body and shadows in either direction signalling consolidation amid stock specific action. PSU banking stocks continue to outperform the private banking stocks. Bias remains positive and we believe dips should be used as a buying opportunity, said Bajaj Broking.

"Short term support seen at 60,500-60,200 levels being the confluence of the 20 days EMA and the key retracement of previous up move. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues. The near-term index is likely to trade in the range of 60,000-61,750. A decisive move beyond this range could trigger fresh directional momentum," he said.