Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 83 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices were poised to open higher on Monday and inch towards record highs, tracking gains in other Asian markets on rising expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, weaker rupee and FIIS selling may dent the sentiments at Dalal Street.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 83 points, or 0.32 per cent, up at 26,160.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks began an event-filled week on the front foot on Monday. KOSPI and Hang Seng jumped 1.25 per cent each.

Market sentiment was further pressured by fresh ambiguity around US monetary policy, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "We expect markets to remain firm next week supported by buying on dips, improving demand outlook in Q3 and resilient flows. Any progress on the India-US trade talks would be a key short term catalyst for the markets."

Wall Street stocks closed sharply higher on Friday amid rising expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 493.30 points, or 1.08 per cent, to 46,245.56, the S&P 500 gained 64.20 points, or 0.98 per cent, to 6,602.96 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 195.04 points, or 0.88 per cent, to 22,273.08.

In commodities, Geopolitical developments were also front and centre of trading rooms, keeping pressure on oil prices in hopes of a potential supply boost. Brent crude futures eased 0.16 per cent to $62.46 a barrel, while US crude fell 0.17 per cent to $57.96 per barrel. Spot gold was down 0.3 per cent to $4,054.19 an ounce.

The dollar was steady and traders wary on Monday. The dollar index was steady at 100.25 and other majors were held fairly close to recent lows. On the other hand, the Indian rupee is likely to face further depreciation pressure this week, with traders eyeing a move toward 90 per U.S. dollar in the absence of firm central bank intervention,

With macro signals turning mixed and global cues offering limited clarity, a balanced approach is advisable. Investors may prioritise sectors with visible earnings traction and renewed interest, while remaining selective in other pockets, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should exercise caution around expiry and key macro releases, using a buy-on-dips strategy."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,766.05 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,161.61 crore on a net-net basis. Overseas investors have offloaded shares worth Rs 3,788 crore in November so far.

Foreign inflows have witnessed continuous volatility with some sign of recovery in coming times. Major factors contributed to this positive shift are the record domestic sales during this festive month, sustained corporate earnings growth, ongoing talks on India-US trade deals, said Manoj Purohit, Partner & Leader, Financial Services Tax, Tax & Regulatory Services, BDO India.  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Nifty50 has formed a bullish candle on weekly charts, and on both weekly and daily charts , it has formed an uptrend continuation formation, which is largely positive. We are of the view that 26,000/85,000 and 25,850/84,500, or the 20-day SMA, will be key support zones for traders, said Amol Athawale, Vice President of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"The bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, 26,250/85,800 could be the immediate resistance zone for the bulls. A successful breakout above 26,250/85,800 could push the market up to 26,500/86500. On the flip side, if the market falls below the 20-day SMA or 25,850/84,500, sentiment could change. Below these levels, traders may prefer to exit long positions," he said.

Nifty has formed a bear candle which mostly remained contained inside previous session range signaling consolidation amid weak global cues near the previous all-time high of 26,277. Going ahead, a follow through strength above all time high (26,277) will open further upside towards the 26,500 levels in the coming weeks, said Bajaj Broking.

"Failure to move above the same will lead to consolidation in the range of 26,277-25,700. Short-term support is placed around the 25,500-25,700 range being the confluence of the 50 days EMA and the recent breakout area. We believe dips should be used as a buying opportunity in quality large and midcap stocks," it adds.  

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank extended its winning streak for the fourth consecutive week. It remains comfortably above the previous breakout zone of 58,500 and continues to trade above the 21-day and 55-day EMAs, highlighting strong upward momentum, said Puneet Singhania, Director of Master Trust Group.

"On the upside, resistance is positioned around 59300, and a decisive move above this zone could pave the way toward 59800. The overall structure remains bullish, favoring a buy-on-dips approach," he said.

Looking at key levels, the 59,300–59,400 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance for Nifty Bank, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "A sustained move above 59,400 could drive the index towards 60,000. On the downside, the 58,600-58,500 zone is expected to act as a strong support zone for Bank Nifty."