Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 83 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open higher on Wednesday, with analysts anticipating a tactical rebound after Tuesday's sharp, IT-led selloff due to renewed worries over AI-related disruption. Tariff concerns also eased a bit after as New Delhi said that it will resume talks on a proposed trade deal with the US once there is more clarity.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were up 83.20 points, or 0.33 per cent, up at 25,683.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian financial markets were seen higher on Wednesday. KOSPI surged more than 2.5 per cent, while Nikkei gained over 1.5 per cent. Hang Seng was up nearly a per cent.

Global uncertainty and persistent concerns around AI-led disruption continued to weigh on market sentiment. Markets are expected to remain volatile within a broader range, driven by mixed global and domestic cues. Key data points to watch include US consumer confidence later today and Eurozone CPI, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, with tech stocks leading the charge as renewed enthusiasm for AI offset concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 370.44 points, or 0.76 per cent, to 49,174.50; the S&P 500 gained 52.32 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 6,890.07 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 236.41 points, or 1.05 per cent, to 22,863.68.

A wobbly yen was pinned near a two-week low on Wednesday after a report that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had told the central bank chief she had reservations about future rate hikes, while a steadily rising Chinese yuan kept pressure on the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.05 per cent to 97.84.

Oil prices were hovering near seven-month highs on Wednesday as the threat of military conflict between the US and Iran. US crude rose 0.75 per cent to $66.12 a barrel and Brent rose to $71.30, up 0.75 per cent. Spot gold was flat to $5,138.49 an ounce while spot silver fell 0.43 per cent to $86.96 an ounce.

Investor sentiment weakened amid renewed concerns over global trade developments, rising geopolitical tensions, continued pressure on global technology stocks, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Amid the prevailing volatility and weak global cues, participants are advised to remain selective, keep position sizes light and focus on relatively stronger pockets."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 102.53 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,161.22 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market is facing consistent selling pressure at higher levels. A long bearish candle on the daily charts and a lower top formation in intraday charts indicate further weakness from the current levels. The intraday market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible after the market breaches the 200-day SMA or 25,350/82,000, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"If the market manages to trade above this level, it could bounce back to 25,500-25,620/82,500-82,800. Conversely, if it falls below 25,350/82,000, it could slip to 25,250-25,200/81,700-81,500. The current market texture is volatile; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," he said.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a sharp weakness in the market after a lower top formation, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"Nifty has been forming a descending triangle type pattern, which is not a good sign for bulls to sustain the highs. The short-term trend of Nifty seems to have turned down post bounce back. Crucial lower supports to be watched around 25,325 and immediate resistance is placed for the short term around 25,600 levels," he added.  

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a small-bodied candle with a lower shadow on the daily charts, suggesting buying support at lower levels, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "The immediate resistance is placed at 61,400–61,500. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its up move towards 62,000, followed by 62,500 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 60,800–60,700 zones is likely to act as an immediate support."

Bank Nifty formed a small bearish candle with a small real body and a long lower shadow signaling consolidation amid stock specific action. PSU banking stocks continue its outperformance. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues, said Bajaj Broking.

"Bias remains positive and we believe dips should be used as buying opportunity, with short term support seen at 60,500-60,200 levels being the confluence of the 20 days EMA and the key retracement of previous up move. In the near-term, it is likely to trade in the range of 60,000-61,750. A decisive move beyond this range could trigger fresh directional momentum," it added.