Gold and silver prices today: Gold moves in a tight range as investors await US economic cues
Analysts say that geopolitical factors and higher crude oil prices are positives for gold
- Jul 31, 2023,
- Updated Jul 31, 2023 11:33 AM IST
Gold prices opened on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Tuesday at Rs 59,693 per 10 grams and hit an intraday low of Rs 59,616. In the international market, prices hovered around $1,959.64 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver opened at Rs 74,040 per kg and hit an intraday low of Rs 73,826 on the MCX. The price hovered around $24.23 per troy ounce in the international market.
Last week, gold prices closed on a positive note, rising 0.20% to 59427. Gold prices kept to a tight range as investors awaited more cues on the US economy front this week.
Anuj Gupta, Vice President of IIFL Securities, said, "We noticed that U.S. markets gave mixed [signals]. However, geopolitical [factors] and higher crude oil prices were supportive of gold. The higher crude and tension between Russia and Ukraine will support the prices again.
He sees technically, the trend of gold is Sideways to up. Strong support is at 59400 and 59000, while resistance at 60200 and 60600 levels. Thus, today, one can buy on the rise around 59300-59400 levels with a stop-loss of 59000 and for the target of 60000 to 60200 levels. Gold may test $1960 to $1965 levels in international markets.
Spot gold closed with a gain of nearly 0.70% at $1959.49 Friday as the U.S. Dollar Index closed around 0.10% lower at 101.62. Two-year U.S. yields settled 0.84% lower at 4.885%, while tens at 3.957% were down by 1.14%. "Bonds got a boost from softer U.S. inflation data," said Praveen Singh – Associate V.P., Fundamental Currencies and Commodities, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
He said, "Friday's U.S. data showed that inflation continued to cool as consumer spending increased. Employment Cost Index (Q2) at 1% trailed the forecast of 1.10% and is the lowest reading since September 2021. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in June from May, thus matching the forecast. PCE deflator increased by 3% YoY, the slowest pace in over two years. The data was in line with the forecast but lower than the previous reading of 3.80%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in June on m-o-m basis (forecast 0.30%, prior 9.30%). The reading was up 4.1% from June 2022. The data was short of the forecast of 4.20%. At the same time, consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.4% in June — the most since January, while May data was revised higher from 0% to 0.10%."
Total known ETF holdings of gold fell for five straight days through July 28 to the lowest level since April 2020. China's PMI data released today have been mixed: manufacturing PMI (July) came in at 49.30 (prior 49) Vs the forecast of 49.20, while non-manufacturing PMI (July) was noted at 51.50, lower than the prior reading of 53.50, and the estimate of 53.
Amit Khare, Associate Vice President at GCL Broking, said, "August Gold closed at 59427(0.82%), and September Silver closed at 74059(0.42%), Bullion's daily charts are now trading at demand zone, Momentum Indicator RSI also indicating the reversal from the bottom level. So, traders are advised to make fresh buy positions in gold and silver near the given support level one with the stop loss of support level two and book near the given resistance levels: Gold August Support 59180/58900 and Resistance 59400/59600. Silver September Support 73700/73000 and Resistance 74200/74700.
Today's other major macroeconomic data releases include Germany's retail sales, the Eurozone's GDP (2Q P), and CPI inflation (July Preliminary).
Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodity and Currency, MOFSL, said, "The data last week showed annual U.S. inflation rose at its slowest pace in more than two years in June, cementing expectations that the Fed was closer to ending its fastest interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s. Two ECB policymakers raised the prospect of an end to the ECB's steepest and longest string of interest rate rises as the outlook for the eurozone economy worsened despite stubbornly high inflation. Markets are banking on an eventual pause in the Fed's rate hike cycle this year, which is expected to benefit gold. GDP, labour market [numbers are] positive. Core PCE is above 4%, increasing belief for a rate hike, while CME Fed-Watch has another story. A wide divergence between gold futures and the spot price also showed this."
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed official Kashkari said that future rate hikes would be largely data-dependent and that the labour market was due for some cooling this year. He also said the inflation outlook appeared optimistic.
"Chinese physical gold premiums rose to a four-month high last week on robust demand, while a price retreat fuelled a slight recovery in purchases in India. Focus today will be on EU, CPI and GDP data," said Modi.
Gold prices opened on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Tuesday at Rs 59,693 per 10 grams and hit an intraday low of Rs 59,616. In the international market, prices hovered around $1,959.64 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver opened at Rs 74,040 per kg and hit an intraday low of Rs 73,826 on the MCX. The price hovered around $24.23 per troy ounce in the international market.
Last week, gold prices closed on a positive note, rising 0.20% to 59427. Gold prices kept to a tight range as investors awaited more cues on the US economy front this week.
Anuj Gupta, Vice President of IIFL Securities, said, "We noticed that U.S. markets gave mixed [signals]. However, geopolitical [factors] and higher crude oil prices were supportive of gold. The higher crude and tension between Russia and Ukraine will support the prices again.
He sees technically, the trend of gold is Sideways to up. Strong support is at 59400 and 59000, while resistance at 60200 and 60600 levels. Thus, today, one can buy on the rise around 59300-59400 levels with a stop-loss of 59000 and for the target of 60000 to 60200 levels. Gold may test $1960 to $1965 levels in international markets.
Spot gold closed with a gain of nearly 0.70% at $1959.49 Friday as the U.S. Dollar Index closed around 0.10% lower at 101.62. Two-year U.S. yields settled 0.84% lower at 4.885%, while tens at 3.957% were down by 1.14%. "Bonds got a boost from softer U.S. inflation data," said Praveen Singh – Associate V.P., Fundamental Currencies and Commodities, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
He said, "Friday's U.S. data showed that inflation continued to cool as consumer spending increased. Employment Cost Index (Q2) at 1% trailed the forecast of 1.10% and is the lowest reading since September 2021. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in June from May, thus matching the forecast. PCE deflator increased by 3% YoY, the slowest pace in over two years. The data was in line with the forecast but lower than the previous reading of 3.80%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in June on m-o-m basis (forecast 0.30%, prior 9.30%). The reading was up 4.1% from June 2022. The data was short of the forecast of 4.20%. At the same time, consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.4% in June — the most since January, while May data was revised higher from 0% to 0.10%."
Total known ETF holdings of gold fell for five straight days through July 28 to the lowest level since April 2020. China's PMI data released today have been mixed: manufacturing PMI (July) came in at 49.30 (prior 49) Vs the forecast of 49.20, while non-manufacturing PMI (July) was noted at 51.50, lower than the prior reading of 53.50, and the estimate of 53.
Amit Khare, Associate Vice President at GCL Broking, said, "August Gold closed at 59427(0.82%), and September Silver closed at 74059(0.42%), Bullion's daily charts are now trading at demand zone, Momentum Indicator RSI also indicating the reversal from the bottom level. So, traders are advised to make fresh buy positions in gold and silver near the given support level one with the stop loss of support level two and book near the given resistance levels: Gold August Support 59180/58900 and Resistance 59400/59600. Silver September Support 73700/73000 and Resistance 74200/74700.
Today's other major macroeconomic data releases include Germany's retail sales, the Eurozone's GDP (2Q P), and CPI inflation (July Preliminary).
Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodity and Currency, MOFSL, said, "The data last week showed annual U.S. inflation rose at its slowest pace in more than two years in June, cementing expectations that the Fed was closer to ending its fastest interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s. Two ECB policymakers raised the prospect of an end to the ECB's steepest and longest string of interest rate rises as the outlook for the eurozone economy worsened despite stubbornly high inflation. Markets are banking on an eventual pause in the Fed's rate hike cycle this year, which is expected to benefit gold. GDP, labour market [numbers are] positive. Core PCE is above 4%, increasing belief for a rate hike, while CME Fed-Watch has another story. A wide divergence between gold futures and the spot price also showed this."
Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed official Kashkari said that future rate hikes would be largely data-dependent and that the labour market was due for some cooling this year. He also said the inflation outlook appeared optimistic.
"Chinese physical gold premiums rose to a four-month high last week on robust demand, while a price retreat fuelled a slight recovery in purchases in India. Focus today will be on EU, CPI and GDP data," said Modi.