Davos 2026: World faces stormy next decade, geoeconomic confrontation now top risk, warns WEF
WEF Davos 2026: WEF's Global Risks Report finds that geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk for 2026
- Jan 14, 2026,
- Updated Jan 14, 2026 5:14 PM IST
The world is heading into a prolonged period of instability, with geopolitical rivalry, economic confrontation and social fragmentation combining to make the next decade increasingly turbulent, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, published on Wednesday.
The report finds that geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk for 2026, overtaking other threats as competition between major powers intensifies. It is followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation, and misinformation and disinformation.
Surveying global leaders and experts, the report paints a bleak outlook. Half of respondents expect a "turbulent or stormy" world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40% believe the near-term outlook will be unsettled, while just 9% expect stability and 1% predict calm.
Concerns deepen over the longer term. Looking ahead to the next 10 years, 57% of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy global environment, 32% expect persistent instability, 10% foresee stability, and only 1% anticipate calm.
"A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential," said Borge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum.
"Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them," he added.
The report describes the current period as an "age of competition" that is compounding global risks across geopolitics, economics, technology and the environment.
"The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion," said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum.
"The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next," she said.
Rising geopolitical and economic strain
The report assesses risks across three timeframes: immediate risks in 2026, short-to-medium-term risks over the next two years, and long-term risks over the next decade.
In the near term, it finds armed conflict, the weaponisation of economic tools and growing societal fragmentation colliding at the same time. These immediate pressures are compounding longer-term challenges ranging from rapid technological change to environmental degradation.
Geoeconomic confrontation ranks first for 2026, with 18% of respondents identifying it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis next year. It is also ranked the most severe risk over the next two years, rising eight positions from last year’s report.
State-based armed conflict ranks second for 2026, though it drops to fifth place in the two-year outlook.
Against a backdrop of prolonged conflicts and intensifying rivalries, the report warns that confrontation threatens global supply chains, economic stability, and the ability of countries to cooperate during economic shocks.
Economic risks show the sharpest collective rise in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation risks both jumped eight positions, ranking 11th and 21st respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble burst rose seven places to 18th. The report warns that mounting debt levels and the risk of asset bubbles, combined with geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of global economic volatility.
Commenting on the report, Sanjay Kedia, CEO and President of Marsh India, said that for India, the new age of global competition highlighted in the risks report is "unfolding against a backdrop of strong economic momentum, rapid digitisation, and deeper integration into global supply chains."
"As geopolitical fragmentation, cyber risk, and climate volatility intensify, Indian businesses are being compelled to look beyond growth alone and focus on building long-term resilience across operations, infrastructure, and financial systems," he added.
Marsh, a global risk advisory firm, is a member of WEF's Global Risks Advisory Board.
The world is heading into a prolonged period of instability, with geopolitical rivalry, economic confrontation and social fragmentation combining to make the next decade increasingly turbulent, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, published on Wednesday.
The report finds that geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk for 2026, overtaking other threats as competition between major powers intensifies. It is followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation, and misinformation and disinformation.
Surveying global leaders and experts, the report paints a bleak outlook. Half of respondents expect a "turbulent or stormy" world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40% believe the near-term outlook will be unsettled, while just 9% expect stability and 1% predict calm.
Concerns deepen over the longer term. Looking ahead to the next 10 years, 57% of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy global environment, 32% expect persistent instability, 10% foresee stability, and only 1% anticipate calm.
"A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential," said Borge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum.
"Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them," he added.
The report describes the current period as an "age of competition" that is compounding global risks across geopolitics, economics, technology and the environment.
"The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion," said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum.
"The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next," she said.
Rising geopolitical and economic strain
The report assesses risks across three timeframes: immediate risks in 2026, short-to-medium-term risks over the next two years, and long-term risks over the next decade.
In the near term, it finds armed conflict, the weaponisation of economic tools and growing societal fragmentation colliding at the same time. These immediate pressures are compounding longer-term challenges ranging from rapid technological change to environmental degradation.
Geoeconomic confrontation ranks first for 2026, with 18% of respondents identifying it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis next year. It is also ranked the most severe risk over the next two years, rising eight positions from last year’s report.
State-based armed conflict ranks second for 2026, though it drops to fifth place in the two-year outlook.
Against a backdrop of prolonged conflicts and intensifying rivalries, the report warns that confrontation threatens global supply chains, economic stability, and the ability of countries to cooperate during economic shocks.
Economic risks show the sharpest collective rise in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation risks both jumped eight positions, ranking 11th and 21st respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble burst rose seven places to 18th. The report warns that mounting debt levels and the risk of asset bubbles, combined with geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of global economic volatility.
Commenting on the report, Sanjay Kedia, CEO and President of Marsh India, said that for India, the new age of global competition highlighted in the risks report is "unfolding against a backdrop of strong economic momentum, rapid digitisation, and deeper integration into global supply chains."
"As geopolitical fragmentation, cyber risk, and climate volatility intensify, Indian businesses are being compelled to look beyond growth alone and focus on building long-term resilience across operations, infrastructure, and financial systems," he added.
Marsh, a global risk advisory firm, is a member of WEF's Global Risks Advisory Board.