$115 oil in sight: Markets rattle as US-Iran tensions spike over Strait of Hormuz
The situation intensified following remarks from the head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), who firmly rejected Iran’s authority over the strategic waterway.
- Apr 13, 2026,
- Updated Apr 13, 2026 6:00 AM IST
The collapse of high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran has sent fresh shockwaves through global energy markets, with analysts warning of a sharp spike in oil and gas prices as tensions escalate around the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Market watchers, including The Kobeissi Letter, flagged an immediate bullish outlook for crude. In a post on X (formally twitter), the outlet projected that US oil prices could surge past $115 per barrel within weeks — marking a potential 21% jump from recent closing levels — after the breakdown in talks and renewed geopolitical risks.
The situation intensified following remarks from the head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), who firmly rejected Iran’s authority over the strategic waterway. The executive warned that any attempt by Tehran to shut or restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz would be “illegal, dangerous, and unacceptable,” underscoring the route’s role as a vital artery for global energy, food, and health supply chains.
The statement came just ahead of an escalation by US President Donald Trump, who announced that the US Navy would begin blockading vessels moving through the strait and clear alleged sea mines laid by Iran. The move followed the collapse of talks in Islamabad and signals a significant shift from diplomatic engagement to direct maritime enforcement.
Speaking on if blockading the strait would result in lower oil and gas prices, Trump said, “Well, eventually it’s gonna be lower. No, it might not happen initially but it’s gonna go down. When this is all over, look, the stock market, the Dow hit 50,000.”
Meanwhile, Iran has maintained a defiant stance. Deputy Parliament Speaker Haji Babaei was quoted by the Mehr News Agency as saying the passage is “completely” under Iranian control, adding that ships may be required to pay transit tolls in Iranian rials — raising concerns about the militarisation and politicisation of one of the world’s most crucial shipping lanes.
Despite recent volatility — where Brent crude briefly dipped below $100 per barrel following a temporary ceasefire — markets remain on edge. Prices had earlier surged as high as $119.45 during peak conflict before settling around $94.26 by the end of last week.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase now expect oil to remain elevated above $100 per barrel through the second quarter, before potentially easing later in the year if geopolitical tensions stabilise.
The collapse of high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran has sent fresh shockwaves through global energy markets, with analysts warning of a sharp spike in oil and gas prices as tensions escalate around the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Market watchers, including The Kobeissi Letter, flagged an immediate bullish outlook for crude. In a post on X (formally twitter), the outlet projected that US oil prices could surge past $115 per barrel within weeks — marking a potential 21% jump from recent closing levels — after the breakdown in talks and renewed geopolitical risks.
The situation intensified following remarks from the head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), who firmly rejected Iran’s authority over the strategic waterway. The executive warned that any attempt by Tehran to shut or restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz would be “illegal, dangerous, and unacceptable,” underscoring the route’s role as a vital artery for global energy, food, and health supply chains.
The statement came just ahead of an escalation by US President Donald Trump, who announced that the US Navy would begin blockading vessels moving through the strait and clear alleged sea mines laid by Iran. The move followed the collapse of talks in Islamabad and signals a significant shift from diplomatic engagement to direct maritime enforcement.
Speaking on if blockading the strait would result in lower oil and gas prices, Trump said, “Well, eventually it’s gonna be lower. No, it might not happen initially but it’s gonna go down. When this is all over, look, the stock market, the Dow hit 50,000.”
Meanwhile, Iran has maintained a defiant stance. Deputy Parliament Speaker Haji Babaei was quoted by the Mehr News Agency as saying the passage is “completely” under Iranian control, adding that ships may be required to pay transit tolls in Iranian rials — raising concerns about the militarisation and politicisation of one of the world’s most crucial shipping lanes.
Despite recent volatility — where Brent crude briefly dipped below $100 per barrel following a temporary ceasefire — markets remain on edge. Prices had earlier surged as high as $119.45 during peak conflict before settling around $94.26 by the end of last week.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase now expect oil to remain elevated above $100 per barrel through the second quarter, before potentially easing later in the year if geopolitical tensions stabilise.