‘6 weeks of jet fuel left’: Europe braces for flight disruptions amid oil shock from West Asia war

Europe could be heading toward flight disruptions within weeks as the global energy shock triggered by tensions in the Middle East intensifies, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned. 

In a stark assessment, IEA's Executive Director Fatih Birol said the continent has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel remaining if current supply disruptions persist, raising the prospect of widespread flight cancellations. 

Flights at risk as fuel supplies tighten 

Birol cautioned that aviation could be among the first sectors to feel the strain if oil flows remain blocked due to the ongoing Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

“I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” he said. 

The warning underscores how quickly disruptions in energy supply chains can ripple into everyday economic activity, particularly in sectors heavily dependent on refined petroleum products like aviation. 

‘Largest energy crisis’ warning 

Birol described the unfolding situation as potentially unprecedented, calling it “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.” He warned that the consequences will not be limited to aviation, with consumers likely to face rising petrol, gas and electricity prices. 

While Europe faces an imminent squeeze, Birol noted that the immediate “front line” of the crisis lies in Asia, where countries are more heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy supplies. He specifically pointed to nations including Japan, South Korea, India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh as being particularly vulnerable in the early stages. 

The effects, he said, would then cascade toward Europe and eventually the Americas. 

Supply disruption driven by conflict 

The crisis has been triggered by escalating tensions in the West Asia, with the United States imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports while Tehran has reportedly laid mines in the vital shipping corridor, sharply restricting tanker traffic. 

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, handling a significant share of global crude exports. Any prolonged disruption there can have immediate and severe consequences for global energy markets. 

IMF warns of prolonged fallout 

Even if hostilities cease quickly, the economic fallout could linger, according to Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund. 

She stressed that supply chains would take time to normalise, noting that oil shipments cannot be restored instantly due to the slow pace of maritime transport. 

“Disruptions are not going to evaporate overnight even if the war ends tomorrow,” she said, highlighting that tanker routes and delivery timelines could stretch for weeks. 

Oil prices rise amid escalating rhetoric 

Oil markets have already begun reacting to the escalating crisis. Prices moved higher following combative remarks from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who signaled that Washington remains prepared to intensify its campaign. 

Hegseth said the US is “locked and loaded” to continue operations and warned Iran it could resolve the conflict diplomatically “the nice way” or face further consequences targeting its remaining energy and military infrastructure. 

He also indicated that the blockade on Iranian ports would continue, reinforcing fears that supply disruptions could persist in the near term.