Bangladesh election: Jamaat loses, all is still not lost for India. Here's why

In the Bangladesh national elections held almost 18 months after Sheikh Hasina's ouster, the Tarique Rahman-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) scored a landslide victory by winning an estimated 181 of the 299 seats. While significantly increasing its foothold, the Jamaat-e-Islami could win only 63-70 seats. 

The Jamaat ditched its frequent ally, BNP, and joined hands with 11 parties, including the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) and the Liberal Democratic Party. 

What Jamaat's loss in Bangladesh polls means for India

The key positive for India is that the Jamaat, often viewed as being pro-Pakistan and hostile to New Delhi's interests, has failed to become the dominant power in Bangladesh. Back in 1971, the party's predecessor, Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan, violently opposed the creation of Bangladesh.

Its paramilitary wings — Al Badr and Al-Shams — were hand in glove with the Pakistani military in atrocities against Bengali nationalists and minorities, including women and children. 

Another positive for India is the reduced Islamist influence, as a Jamaat-led government would have led to increased regional radicalisation and security threats along India's eastern border. 

During the previous BNP-Jamaat government, Indian intelligence agencies accused Bangladesh of providing safe havens to northeast Indian insurgent groups such as ULFA. New Delhi's mistrust of the alliance was calcified when the infamous Chittagong arms haul took place in 2004, involving 10 truckloads of weapons for militants.

Moreover, India has strongly backed the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), following which many top Jamaat leaders were executed for their roles in the 1971 war. Jamaat sees this as an Indian-backed effort to dismantle its leadership.

Had the Jamaat scored a direct win in the recently conducted Bangladesh elections, Bangladesh would have likely turned into "Pakistan-lite" on India's eastern borders. Thus, the Jamaat's loss thwarted the immediate rise of a government ideologically committed to moving Dhaka away from New Delhi to a Pakistan-China-Turkey axis. 

BNP as a pragmatic alternative

With Jamaat's loss, New Delhi has found a pragmatic alternative in Dhaka — the Tarique Rahman-led BNP. Even though the BNP has a historically tense relationship with India, both sides are eyeing a "reset" based on mutual respect. 

Rahman has publicly said that his approach vis-à-vis India would be of "Friend Yes, Master No". 

In an interview with BBC Bangla, Rahman said, "Bangladesh comes first. I will prioritise the interests of my country's people and my nation's interests first. Whatever I do, I will do so while upholding those interests."

Since the BNP's political identity is based on "Bangladesh First", the party might refer to transit agreements with India as "commercial transactions" that benefit the Bangladeshi economy instead of "concessions" under Hasina.

Rahman's biggest challenge at present is to satisfy a voter base in Bangladesh that feels India interfered in their democracy, while realising that an antagonistic relationship with New Delhi will do no good for Dhaka. 

The biggest thorn in the India-BNP ties, however, remains the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India. For New Delhi, sending Hasina back to Dhaka would be seen as betraying a long-term ally and damaging its reputation as a reliable partner. 

Diplomats, however, are hoping that India can negotiate a "middle path" which allows legal processes to move forward without immediate physical extradition to avoid a total breakdown in ties. 

Some challenges remain

Despite the BNP winning big, India still has challenges to negotiate a bunch of sensitive issues by 2026. These include the Farakka Water Treaty set to expire in 2026, as well as economic and trade ties between the two countries. India is also concerned about the safety of Hindus in Bangladesh after a slew of targeted attacks in 2024.