OPEC+ weighs 206,000 bpd hike but Iran war keeps output gains largely symbolic
The disruption has already removed an estimated 12-15 million barrels per day, or up to 15% of global supply, from the market, one of the largest shocks on record.
- Apr 5, 2026,
- Updated Apr 5, 2026 5:49 PM IST
OPEC+ is set to discuss a modest increase in oil output, but the move is likely to remain largely theoretical as the ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt supply, Reuters reported.
The group may approve a hike of about 206,000 barrels per day for May, mirroring April’s increase, according to sources. However, the boost is expected to exist mostly on paper as key producers remain unable to raise output due to the conflict.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil transit route — since late February, sharply cutting exports from major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq.
The disruption has already removed an estimated 12-15 million barrels per day, or up to 15% of global supply, from the market, one of the largest shocks on record, Reuters reported.
As a result, Brent crude prices have surged close to $120 per barrel, with analysts warning they could spike above $150 if the disruption persists.
Despite the planned quota increase, actual production gains remain constrained. Infrastructure damage from missile and drone attacks across the Gulf, along with sanctions and war-related disruptions affecting Russia, have further limited the ability of producers to ramp up output.
Sources told Reuters the proposed increase is intended more as a signal — showing OPEC+ is ready to act once conditions improve and supply routes reopen — rather than an immediate solution to tight global supply.
OPEC+ is set to discuss a modest increase in oil output, but the move is likely to remain largely theoretical as the ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt supply, Reuters reported.
The group may approve a hike of about 206,000 barrels per day for May, mirroring April’s increase, according to sources. However, the boost is expected to exist mostly on paper as key producers remain unable to raise output due to the conflict.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil transit route — since late February, sharply cutting exports from major Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq.
The disruption has already removed an estimated 12-15 million barrels per day, or up to 15% of global supply, from the market, one of the largest shocks on record, Reuters reported.
As a result, Brent crude prices have surged close to $120 per barrel, with analysts warning they could spike above $150 if the disruption persists.
Despite the planned quota increase, actual production gains remain constrained. Infrastructure damage from missile and drone attacks across the Gulf, along with sanctions and war-related disruptions affecting Russia, have further limited the ability of producers to ramp up output.
Sources told Reuters the proposed increase is intended more as a signal — showing OPEC+ is ready to act once conditions improve and supply routes reopen — rather than an immediate solution to tight global supply.