Goldman Sachs’ 2026 Commodity Playbook: What To Buy, What To Avoid | What's Hot

Entering 2026, gold and silver - 2025's star performers with ~80% and ~180% returns - face tempered expectations after parabolic gains. Nirmal Bang's Kunal Shah attributes the rally to de-globalization, multipolar world dynamics, eroding paper currency trust, soaring Western debt, stagnant production, growing deficits, and export controls by China/Russia. Central banks continue heavy buying (800-850 tons in 2025), supporting gold. He forecasts realistic 2026 upside: gold 10-15% (target $4,650-4,700/oz or ₹1.52-1.55 lakh/10g in India), silver 15-20% (₹2.60-2.65 lakh/kg). Bullish on copper as "new gold" (target ₹14,000-14,500/MT) due to supply constraints. Oil seen rising to $65-70/barrel. Strategy: Avoid FOMO; use dips (gold ~₹1.20-1.25 lakh, silver ~₹1.2-1.3 lakh/kg) to average via ETFs. Fundamentals remain positive despite possible corrections.