The Indian government is set to overhaul its methodology for measuring key economic indicators like GDP, inflation, and industrial production from February 2026, incorporating the informal economy and e-commerce data. Chief Economic Advisor Anant Nageshwaran addressed the frequent criticism of the current data, stating, 'It is only when the GDP growth numbers surprise on the upside, we hear all these concerns being raised.' The new framework will adopt the 'double deflation' method for a more precise assessment of real-term value. This major policy shift, which has been in development for over two years, follows concerns raised by global bodies like the IMF. The government will also release back-series data for the past three financial years to allow for better comparison once the new system is implemented with the advance estimates in early 2026.
In a year-end discussion on Business Today Television, Piyush Pandey, Senior VP-Equity Research at Centrum Broking, shared a positive outlook for India's IT sector in 2026 after two tough years.Q2 FY26 results showed sequential revenue growth, margin improvement, strong deal wins, and rising AI-related opportunities. Client spending is rebounding, especially in BFSI, aided by rupee depreciation and attractive valuations. Top large-cap picks: Infosys and TCS. Tier-2: LTIMindtree and Coforge. On telecom's duopoly, he favors Bharti Airtel (pricing power, ARPU growth, debt reduction) and Indus Towers (Vodafone relief trigger, reduced receivables). Vodafone Idea remains speculative; prefers Indus for indirect play. Overall, 2026 expected to be reasonably good for IT with improving fundamentals; Jio IPO likely by mid-year.
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In this special edition of "What's Hot" on Business Today Television, host Sakshi Batra discusses two major market stories as 2025 draws to a close. First, the muted listing of KSH International IPO, which debuted flat-to-discount at around ₹357-399 against the ₹384 issue price, weighed down by undersubscription that forced a reduced issue size. The spotlight then shifts to the historic rally in precious metals. Gold surged ~77% in 2025, while silver doubled investors' money with 130-140% returns, marking one of the strongest years for both in decades. Expert Navneet Damani from Motilal Oswal highlights geopolitical uncertainty, supply shortages, and financial flows as key drivers. For 2026, he remains cautiously optimistic: gold could hit ₹1.5-1.6 lakh and silver ₹2.5-2.6 lakh, but warns of sharp 7-10% corrections ahead. Advises profit-booking, staggered buying on dips, SIPs in ETFs, and maintaining 10-15% portfolio allocation to gold/silver for long-term diversification, avoiding jewellery due to high costs.
A fresh political twist has emerged in the proposed India–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, with New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters opposing the deal. His party, New Zealand First Party, part of the ruling coalition, argues the FTA gives away too much on immigration while offering limited gains in sensitive sectors like dairy. At the same time, India has maintained a firm stand on protecting domestic agriculture, a position repeatedly articulated by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. The proposed pact includes a limited, quota-based agri action plan covering kiwis, premium honey and apples. As India advances its seventh FTA under the Modi government, political resistance in New Zealand could influence timelines and negotiations ahead.
Silver is stealing the spotlight after a historic rally with global prices hovering near $67 an ounce and expectations building for a move towards $75-$80. Experts believe the upside remains strong, driven by robust industrial demand, a tightening gold-silver ratio, and structural supply constraints. While volatility remains high - silver has always been a “chanchal” metal - market corrections are seen as opportunities rather than risks. The key message for investors: don’t fear the swings, invest systematically. The idea of SIP now extends beyond mutual funds to a “Silver Investment Plan,” encouraging steady monthly allocations to benefit from long-term compounding. For investors seeking returns, financial instruments make sense, while physical silver suits consumption needs. With ratios expected to compress further, silver’s long-term story remains compelling.
In a Business Today special Show, Commodities expert Ajay Kedia reflects on the historic 2025 bull run in precious metals, with silver delivering unprecedented ~145% returns and gold ~76%, far exceeding typical inflation-beating gains. He attributes this rally to multiple converging factors: ongoing geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization, aggressive central bank and ETF buying, and surging industrial demand for silver in EVs, solar, and clean energy. For 2026, Kedia remains bullish but expects moderated gains - 15-18% for gold and stronger upside for silver. He prefers silver over gold due to robust industrial offtake, recommends SIP-style investments via ETFs, and suggests 18-20% portfolio allocation to bullion amid expected volatility. Base metals like copper also look promising.
Jyotivardhan Jaipuria outlines how value opportunities are emerging across pockets of the market, driven by temporary weakness and negative headlines. He explains that Valentis follows its core “3U” philosophy - buying stocks that are undervalued, underperforming and under-owned—often stepping in early and exiting ahead of the crowd. Jaipuria highlights banking stocks as a key area to accumulate on weakness as margins remain under pressure but valuations look attractive. He also flags cement stocks, where delayed monsoons may hurt near-term numbers, creating entry opportunities for long-term investors. Additionally, select chemical stocks impacted by US tariffs are on the radar. The strategy remains clear: buy bad news, stay patient, and focus on long-term value creation.
Looking ahead to 2026, Jyotivardhan Jaipuria believes investors must balance optimism with realism. On the risk side, rising interest rates in Japan could reduce global liquidity, while the US faces the challenge of sticky inflation amid slowing growth. Another key concern is the possibility of an AI-led market correction, which could have global repercussions. However, there are positives too. If the US Federal Reserve accelerates balance sheet easing, liquidity could once again flow into asset markets, supporting valuations. The base-case expectation is a better market in 2026 compared to 2025, though not an extraordinary one. Large caps may deliver steady returns, while mid- and small-caps could outperform—provided global macro conditions remain supportive.
Speaking at the World Hindu Economic Forum, JSW Group Chairman Sajjan Jindal called for a renewed focus on manufacturing to drive Atmanirbhar Bharat. He said India’s economy is overly dependent on services, which contribute over 60 percent of GDP, while manufacturing has fallen below 15 percent. Jindal stressed that a strong manufacturing base is essential for long-term economic strength, job creation and global competitiveness. Highlighting India’s young and ambitious population, he said the country has the talent to scale industry rapidly. He also cited JSW Group’s large investments as examples of commitment to manufacturing-led growth.
Vinit Bolinjkar of Ventura Securities outlines a cautious yet constructive strategy for Indian equities in 2026. He notes that while benchmark indices have delivered high single-digit returns, broader markets - especially small caps - have underperformed, hurting retail investors with heavy exposure. At current levels around 26,000, valuations are reasonable but not cheap, making stock selection critical. With Indian interest rates likely past their peak and selling pressure emerging in mid and small caps due to IPO supply and profit-taking, Vinit advises investors to be highly selective and valuation-disciplined. For fresh allocations, he prefers large caps with a tilt towards consumption-led businesses. As inflation bottoms out and gradually rises, he expects improvement in revenues and EBITDA, making quality large caps a relatively safer bet for 2026.
Strong Q1 results from Accenture have brought Indian IT stocks back into focus after a long phase of underperformance. Accenture reported 6% YoY revenue growth, steady FY26 guidance, and a sharp 76% jump in AI bookings, helping revive global tech sentiment. However, experts remain cautious, noting that discretionary spending remains weak and GenAI adoption is yet to meaningfully lift overall IT budgets, a view echoed by Jefferies. Currency volatility, stretched AI valuations, and global macro risks also cap enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley sees limited near-term impact from HCL Tech’s latest acquisition. While large-cap IT may stay range-bound, the view is that midcap IT stocks could outperform once demand visibility improves, even as domestic manufacturing remains the preferred overweight theme.
Danish pharma giant Novo Nordisk’s recent launch of Ozempic in India alongside a 37% price cut on Wegovy points out at more than a market entry. It reflects a strategic recalibration as semaglutide approaches the latter half of its patent life globally and competitive intensity in obesity care accelerates. With rivals scaling up and next-generation therapies on the horizon, Novo is shaping its India strategy around broader metabolic health outcomes, access expansion and local partnerships. Emil Kongshøj Larsen, Executive Vice President (EVP) for International Operations, Novo Nordisk told Business Today that India will be central to company's growth agenda, with parallel efforts to widen patient reach and defend its GLP-1 franchise as competition intensifies.
The Indian stock market is wrapped in Christmas cheer as the Nifty trades at 25,979, firmly holding above the key 25,900 bull zone with 90 minutes left to potentially reclaim 26,000. Bank Nifty supports the rally, up 200 points to 59,112, while broad-based strength shines through - a robust advance-decline ratio of 1,922 advancing versus 800 declining stocks. Midcaps and small caps lead with Nifty Alpha 50 up 1%, Small cap 100 gaining 0.8%, and Midcap 100 rising 0.6%. Standouts include Shriram Finance hitting a record high on news of a potential $4.5 billion investment, Power Grid, Titan, Hindalco, and buzzing names like Tata Elxsi, JK Tyre, and pharma stocks. After a painful week, Nifty respects the 21-day EMA, signaling hope for a greener close to 2025.
Sandip Bansal of ASK Investment Managers outlines three key factors shaping the equity market outlook for 2026. The foremost trigger is a pickup in earnings growth, with FY26 expected to see improvement in the second half, setting the stage for a stronger 14–15% earnings growth trajectory in FY27. Improved market sentiment, supported by potential progress on a U.S. trade deal and expanding bilateral agreements, could further aid the outlook. Bansal also highlights a recovery across market breadth, driven by rising government activity, improved project execution, and a revival in the private sector capex cycle. With rate cuts already in place and capital raised awaiting deployment, growth impulses could strengthen meaningfully next year.
On Business Today TV's "What's Hot Today", Market expert discussed market gains with Nifty rising amid sectoral strength in pharma, realty, and mid/small-caps. ICICI Prudential AMC made a strong debut and rising further. Vinit Bolinjkar (Ventura Securities) recommended holding long-term as a decadal growth play, ranking it top among AMCs for valuations and brand. Ola Electric faced pressure from promoter Bhavish Aggarwal's third consecutive stake sale. Accenture's solid Q1 FY26 results boosted Indian IT sentiment, though Bolinjkar remained cautious. For 2026, he advised overweight large-caps, selective mid/small-caps, focus on manufacturing, defense, FMCG, and mid-sized banks; stay positive on gold/silver.
Sandip Bansal of ASK Investment Managers shares his perspective on the weakening rupee and how fund managers are adapting. He explains that while a softer rupee raises import costs - especially for capital goods and oil - it also supports exports and helps cushion the impact of US tariffs. With crude prices remaining muted, the pressure from imports has been manageable. Bansal notes that currency volatility is not desirable but is an unavoidable part of markets. Rather than viewing it as a nightmare, fund managers adjust portfolios to evolving macro conditions. In this environment, ASK has taken a tactical call on the IT sector, supported by export orientation, attractive valuations, and signs of improving demand, turning currency weakness into a strategic opportunity.
Sandip Bansal of ASK Investment Managers explains how fresh monthly inflows are being deployed in the current market environment. The focus remains firmly on domestic-oriented businesses positioned to benefit from a cyclical recovery. While there is no single-sector bet, Bansal highlights a basket-led approach with BFSI, discretionary consumption, manufacturing, and capital goods at the core. BFSI stands out due to improving credit growth momentum, strong asset quality, and attractive valuations. He also notes a tactical bullish turn on the IT sector, supported by favourable currency dynamics, current account considerations, rising gold prices, reasonable valuations, and an improving demand outlook. Overall, ASK’s strategy balances cyclical recovery themes with selective sectoral opportunities.
Sharing his outlook on the NIFTY 2026, George Thomas, Fund Manager at Quantum AMC, says bottom-up fundamentals point to healthy upside over the next two years. He remains optimistic on financials, where rate cuts that hurt banks earlier could turn into a tailwind as deposit repricing improves margins amid a benign credit environment. Insurance is another key pocket, with pricing issues largely behind and earnings visibility improving. IT services, after years of muted global tech spending, could benefit from a technology refresh cycle and enterprise adoption of new platforms. While valuations are no longer cheap, Thomas believes they remain reasonable, setting the stage for returns that could outperform historical averages over the next two years.
Concerns around the rupee weakening to near 91 levels are being viewed with greater calm compared to the past. The market perspective today is shaped by strong foreign exchange reserves, relatively low crude oil prices, and global currency volatility. Unlike earlier phases when sharp rupee moves triggered panic, the current depreciation is seen as part of a broader cycle. Importantly, a weaker rupee provides a cushion to Indian exporters, especially at a time when trade negotiations face delays. With oil prices around $60–62 per barrel, the macro balance remains supportive. The combination of manageable inflation risks, adequate reserves, and global currency adjustments suggests that the current rupee level is not a systemic concern but a temporary phase within the economic cycle.
SEBI has announced a sweeping reset of market regulations, cutting and unbundling mutual fund expenses, overhauling three-decade-old stockbroker rules, and tightening disclosure norms. IPO regulations have also been eased with a tech-driven lock-in system for pledged shares, while investor protection has been strengthened through a revamped broker charter and grievance redress mechanism. Catch Sakshi Batra in conversation with Harshvardhan Roongta, CEO, Roongta Securities decoding what these changes mean for retail investors.
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