Market Guru Pre-Budget Special: What Rahul Arora Expects From Union Budget 2026

In Business Today's pre-Budget special, anchor Sakshi Batra interviews Rahul Arora, CEO of Ashika Institutional Equities, on market outlook and expectations for the Union Budget 2026, presented Sunday, February 1. Arora highlights persistent global headwinds from geopolitics and Trump 2.0 policies, causing FII outflows due to low post-tax, post-currency returns compared to safe US assets. Domestic liquidity faces pressure from heavy IPOs and strong gold/silver rallies diverting retail funds. For the Budget, he anticipates fiscal prudence (deficit ~4.2%), capex growth ~9-10% aligned with nominal GDP, with defense seeing 15-25% hike amid rising production and global focus. Emphasis on consumption (via prior GST/income tax relief), private investment revival, and debt-to-GDP reduction. Key sectors: defense, consumer discretionary, banks (credit growth pickup). He advises caution overall, Nifty range 24,000-28,000, multi-asset diversification (30-40% in alternatives like gold/silver if held, but no fresh buys at highs), and stock-specific picks in mid/small caps after further correction. Avoid frontline IT and staples for now; watch FTAs' lagged impact on select sectors. Budget likely a balancing act without major tax surprises.