Rupee Under Pressure: Trade Worries, Outflows & RBI Strategy

The rupee has slipped past the psychological 91-per-dollar mark, hitting a fresh record low and grabbing market attention. According to Navneet Damani, Senior Group Vice President – Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the fall is driven by sustained foreign outflows, a swelling import bill, and the absence of a clear India–US trade deal. Equity market drawdowns of nearly $18 billion in 2025 alone have added pressure, while exporters are rushing to hedge at weaker levels. Damani explains that the RBI is allowing a “natural depreciation” rather than burning forex reserves, noting that the rupee historically weakens about 12% every four years. Markets now watch closely: is 92 the next stop, or will policy action bring relief?