Stock Market Outlook: Inflation, Oil Prices & Monsoon Could Hold Back India’s Next Big Rally

Indian markets remain cautious as investors track inflation, oil prices and monsoon trends. Ajay Bagga, Sr. Market Veteran, says an uneven monsoon across several states could put pressure on food prices in the coming months, while elevated oil prices and Iran-related energy disruptions remain key risks. The US debate over sanctions on countries buying Russian oil could add further uncertainty. However, earnings downgrades have stopped, with sales holding up and domestic sectors such as real estate, autos and financials performing well. Ajay Bagga expects the RBI to remain on pause for the next few months, with a stronger rupee and oil prices influencing inflation and monetary policy.