Assam Election Results 2026: Himanta for another term, or Congress for a comeback?

Assam Election Results 2026: Exit polls last week indicated a comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance in the Assam Assembly elections held on April 9 for 126 seats.

Vote counting is underway. Halfway mark for the state is 64 seats. 

At 11 am, BJP was leading in 98 seats, Congress in 26 and others in 2 seats. 

ASSAM ELECTION 2026: WHAT’S AT STAKE?

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is aiming for a third consecutive term, while Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi is trying to improve his party's fortunes. Sarma focused on infiltration issues during his campaign, while Gogoi highlighted anti-incumbency and increased voter turnout.

ASSAM ELECTION: EXIT POLLS

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll estimated the BJP's vote share at 48 per cent and projected the alliance to win between 88 and 100 seats. Congress was placed second with 24 to 36 seats and an estimated 38 per cent vote share. Others were expected to secure around 14 per cent.

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Other agencies showed similar trends. P-MARQ projected BJP+ 82 to 94 seats and Congress+ 30 to 40. Matrize estimated BJP+ 85 to 95 seats and Congress+ 25 to 32. Peoples Pulse gave BJP+ 68 to 72 seats and Congress+ 22 to 26. JVC projected BJP+ 88 to 101 seats and Congress+ 23 to 33. Poll Diary estimated BJP+ 75 to 86 and Congress+ 15 to 24. Kamakhya Analytics projected BJP+ 85 to 95 seats and Congress+ 26 to 39. A poll of polls suggested BJP+ would cross 88 seats, with Congress around 27 and others at 7.

Sarma said BJP would secure between 90 and 100 seats, citing increasing victory margins. Gogoi said higher turnout, up by about 1.6 to 1.7 percentage points compared to 2021, could benefit Congress and help it form the government.

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ASSAM ELECTIONS 2026: THE FACTORS AT PLAY

The 2026 election was held on newly delimited constituencies. The total number of seats remained 126, but minority-dominated seats reduced from around 35 to 23. BJP is expected to benefit from this, along with its support among indigenous and tribal communities.

Upper Assam attracted attention due to three leaders with the Gogoi surname – Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi, the founder of the Raijor Dal, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi, founder of founder of the Assam Jatiya Parishad – all seeking support within the Ahom community. Delimitation is believed to have diluted the community's electoral influence.

Congress faced organisational challenges. Former state chief Bhupen Borah and MP Pradyut Bordoloi joined BJP. Candidate Suren Daimari withdrew a day before polling. Congress also did not ally with the All India United Democratic Front led by Badruddin Ajmal.

A controversy arose when Congress leaders accused Sarma's wife, Riniki Bhuyan Sarma, of holding multiple passports and controlling assets worth ₹52,000 crore through a foreign firm. The allegations were denied and are now before the courts.

ASSAM ELECTIONS 2026: COUNTING LOGISTICS

The Election Commission said around 8,500 personnel will oversee counting across 40 centres in 35 districts. Security has been increased with central forces guarding strong rooms, supported by state police and additional personnel for EVM movement. Officials dismissed concerns about EVM security breaches.

Assam recorded a voter turnout of 85.96 per cent, the highest in its history, with polling at 31,490 stations. A total of 722 candidates, including 59 women, contested. Authorities reported seizures of cash, liquor and other items worth ₹114.43 crore during the campaign.

With exit polls favouring the BJP-led alliance, attention now turns to whether Sarma can secure a third term or if Congress can convert higher turnout into gains when results are declared.