Who is winning Assam? Exit polls give BJP’s Himanta a big edge, leave Congress stunned

Assam exit poll results today: In Assam, it has been an election of sharp barbs, takedowns and police action. The Northeastern state voted on April 9 for the 126 assembly seats. The prime faces: Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma versus Congress leader and Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi. 

While Sarma is trying for a rare third consecutive term for the BJP-led alliance, Gogoi is aiming to regroup his power coterie. Both appear confident, and both are sure of defeating the opposite side. Where Sarma has his infiltration narrative, Gogoi has the anti-incumbency discontent on his side. 

According to India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 88-100 out of the total 126 seats in the northeastern state. The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to be a distant second with 24-36 seats in its kitty. 

While the BJP is likely to bag 48% vote share in Assam, the Congress will go down to 38%, as per India Today-Axis My India. Others, however, are likely to fetch a vote share of around 14%. 

DON'T MISS | COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF EXIT POLL RESULTS 2026

Pollsters	BJP+	Congress+	Others
India Today-Axis My India	88-100	24-36	0-3
P-MARQ	82-94	30-40	1-5
Matrize	85-95	25-32	6-12
Peoples Pulse	68-72	22-26	3-5
JVC	88-101	23-33	2-5
Poll Diary	75-86	15-24	2-5
Kamakhya Analytics	85-95	26-39	0-3
Poll of Exit Polls	88+	27	7

CM Sarma reiterated that the BJP would win 90-100 seats in Assam. "I first fought an election when I was 26-years-old. In the first election, I lost by around 12,000 votes. Then in 2001, I won by 12,000 votes. In 2006, I won by about 24,000 votes. In 2011, I think by 45,000 votes. In the last election, I won by 1 lakh votes. I got around 80 per cent of the popular votes. I converted a defeat into a win. Then I kept increasing my margin. This time also I will be fighting from the same constituency...I feel that I will continue to have a good margin," he told reporters.

Meanwhile, Gogoi said, “Compared to five years ago, there is an average of 1.6-1.7 percentage increase compared to 2021. So, I am happy that the turnout compared to the last assembly election has increased by 1 or a few percentage points. We have got tremendous feedback from the public on how they have gone and voted for a new Assam. We are confident that you will see, on May 4th, a Congress-led government in Assam.” 

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ASSAM ELECTIONS: WHAT CAN TURN THE TIDE

Delimitation: Assam voted on delimited seats. While the number of seats remained unchanged, it redrew the political map. This is expected to benefit CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. The delimitation exercise carried out in 2023 reduced the minority-dominated seats from about 35 to 23. Banking on identity politics, BJP is expected to benefit from the influence of the indigenous and tribal population. 

Three Gogois: Upper Assam could turn out to be Himanta’s Achilles’ heel. Three Gogois – Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi, legislator from Sivasagar and founder of the Raijor Dal, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi, founder of the Assam Jatiya Parishad and former general secretary of the All Assam Students’ Union – are looking to bank on older loyalties and alliances of the Ahom community to oust Himanta. They are indicating the herald of a new Assam, away from the climate of fear and intimidation. However, the influence of the Ahom community has also been split due to the delimitation exercise. 

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Organisational heft: Congress’ dwindling power in the state is evident. Two powerful leaders of the Congress left the party ahead of the elections. Former Assam Congress chief Bhupen Borah ended his 32-year stint with the party to move to the BJP. It was followed by sitting MP Pradyut Bordoloi’s exit from the party, and subsequent move to the BJP. And then just a day before voting was scheduled to begin, Congress candidate Suren Daimari from Udalguri resigned from the party. And then there was the AIUDF angle. The Congress did not form an alliance with All India United Democratic Front, led by President Badruddin Ajmal this time. Ajmal failed to win any seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The Riniki factor: One of the most strong moves by the Congress came ahead of the election when the party accused CM Sarma’s wife, Riniki Bhuyan Sarma of possessing three passports – Egypt, the UAE, and Antigua and Barbuda – and controlling assets worth Rs 52,000 crore through a Wyoming-based firm. Pawan Khera said the company, valued at $34.67 billion, lists Sarma, his wife, and their son as members, and questioned the lack of these details in the election affidavit. The Sarma family moved swiftly with legal action, and Khera has now sought an anticipatory bail from the Supreme Court. Even as the case is sub-judice, the narrative against the CM had taken a hold ahead of the election.