A likely El Niño and rising temperatures: What are we heading for this summer?

A likely El Niño event combined with steadily rising global temperatures could make the coming months particularly challenging for agriculture, food prices, and weather stability across many parts of the world. Climate researchers and meteorological agencies are increasingly warning that the interaction between natural climate cycles and long-term global warming may amplify extreme weather events, creating fresh risks for food production and supply chains.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now an 80% probability of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months, raising concerns that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded. The warning comes after 2023, 2024, and 2025 were already the three hottest years on record, with global temperatures now more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels.

Why El Niño matters

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While it occurs periodically, its effects are now being supercharged by a warming planet.

Historically, El Niño has been associated with heatwaves, droughts, altered rainfall patterns, floods, and disruptions to agricultural production. Scientists warn that when El Niño occurs against the backdrop of record global temperatures, the resulting impacts can become more severe and widespread.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) report highlights that climate change is already affecting food systems around the world. Heat stress, in particular, is emerging as a major threat to agricultural productivity and labor capacity.

Focus on farms

Research cited in the report found that 640 billion potential work hours were lost globally due to heat exposure in 2024, the highest level on record and nearly double the average seen during the 1990s. Agricultural workers accounted for 63.5% of all heat-related work-hour losses worldwide, making farming one of the sectors most vulnerable to rising temperatures.

The problem is especially acute in developing economies that supply food to global markets. The report found that agricultural workers across 15 climate-vulnerable countries lost an estimated 216 billion work hours in 2024, equivalent to around 590 hours per worker, or nearly 49 working days.

Countries such as India, Vietnam, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia, and Brazil are already experiencing rising heat stress levels while also serving as major suppliers of rice, coffee, cocoa, fruits, tea, and other agricultural products.

What could happen this summer?

If El Niño strengthens as expected, several regions could face heightened weather risks.

India may experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with periods of extreme rainfall and localized flooding. The report notes that India experienced weather-related extremes on most days of 2025, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides. Rice production, a critical crop for both domestic consumption and exports, remains vulnerable to temperature spikes and erratic monsoon patterns.

In Southeast Asia, countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia could face drought conditions, water shortages, and heat-related productivity losses. West African cocoa-producing nations, including Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, may continue to struggle with the combined effects of drought, extreme rainfall, and crop disease outbreaks.

Brazil, one of the world's largest agricultural exporters, faces the risk of drought in some regions and flooding in others. Recent years have already seen severe droughts in the Amazon alongside devastating floods in southern parts of the country.

Food Prices

Extreme weather increasingly translates into higher food prices. The ECIU estimates that climate-related disruptions added around £360 to the average UK household food bill during 2022 and 2023, while food prices have risen by more than 40% since mid-2021.

Global consumers could see increased volatility in the prices of rice, coffee, cocoa, tea, fruits, sugar, and vegetable oils if harvests are affected by extreme heat or weather disruptions.

Summer patterns

While no single event can be blamed entirely on El Niño, the combination of a likely El Niño and a warming climate is creating conditions that favor more extreme weather, greater agricultural stress, and heightened food-security concerns. For governments, businesses, farmers, and consumers, the coming months could provide a glimpse into how climate-related risks are increasingly shaping economies and food systems around the world.