'Nuclear weapons are ultimate guarantor...': Ex-IAF officer warns Iranian regime will continue to pursue nukes

Days after the US struck Iran's key nuclear sites, former Indian Air Force officer Ajay Ahlawat on Tuesday warned that nuclear weapons have once again become the defining factor in global security. He also said that if the current regime in Iran survives - they would continue to pursue their nuclear programme.

"Nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantor of national security. This has been settled by recent events," Ahlawat posted, referring to growing nuclear anxieties after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. 

He observed that countries such as South Korea, Japan, Germany, Australia, and Canada possess the technical capacity to acquire nuclear weapons within a year. "Canada and Aus have no/low incentive to acquire one. SK, Japan would need nukes to counter China. Germany would need nukes to counter Russia,” he wrote.

However, Ahlawat cautioned that nuclear decisions are not purely technical: "No simple decision though. The decision to acquire nukes is a decision that goes beyond technical capabilities. Much is at stake.” He added: "If the current regime in Iran survives — they would continue to pursue nukes."

The remarks come amid a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced after Israel claimed to have "achieved the objectives" of its strikes on Iran.

According to an official Israeli statement, the military campaign eliminated Iran's "dual immediate existential threat" from nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. It further stated that Israel had "inflicted severe damage on the military leadership, and destroyed dozens of central Iranian government targets."

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites — Fordow (also spelled Fordo), Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump described the facilities as "completely and totally obliterated."

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted: "It is clear that Fordow was also directly impacted, but the degree of damage inside the uranium enrichment halls can't be determined with certainty."

Sam Lair, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute, said while there was uncertainty over whether the facility had been damaged by the Israeli strikes, "it's certainly damaged now."

The US military action came shortly after Israel conducted its own offensive targeting Iran's nuclear program, killing top IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists. 

The White House reiterated President Trump's longstanding policy on June 17, saying: "President Donald Trump has never wavered in his stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon." That same day, Trump posted: "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple — you don’t have to go to too deep into it. They just can’t have a nuclear weapon."

Earlier, on May 13, he wrote: "Iran can have a much brighter future — but we'll never allow America and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or a nuclear attack. The choice is theirs to make. We really want them to be a successful country … but they cannot have a nuclear weapon."