'This undoubtedly kills IMEC': Expert warns Saudi-Pakistan pact marks the end of US dominance
Bertrand described the development as a "Suez moment" for the US, comparing it to a historical turning point in global geopolitics.
- Sep 18, 2025,
- Updated Sep 18, 2025 12:47 PM IST
Geopolitics commentator and co-founder of HouseTrip, Arnaud Bertrand, on Thursday raised alarms over the defense pact signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, warning that it could lead to significant geopolitical shifts. According to Bertrand, the strategic partnership, which includes a mutual defense clause stating that any aggression against either country will be considered an act of aggression against both, could have far-reaching consequences for India and the broader Middle East.
Bertrand described the development as a "Suez moment" for the US, comparing it to a historical turning point in global geopolitics. "I don't think I'm exaggerating by saying that this truly is the US's Suez moment: Saudi Arabia just entered into a NATO-like alliance with Pakistan whereby 'any attack on either country is an attack on both.'"
He further noted the symbolic weight of the pact, stressing that Saudi Arabia, once seen as a US client state, had moved away from its reliance on American security guarantees. "Saudi Arabia was in many ways THE poster child of US client states. If they no longer trust American security guarantees, why should anyone else?" Bertrand asked. He added that the fact this agreement was allowed to happen without US intervention was also telling.
Bertrand emphasised the implications of this defense deal, particularly its nuclear ramifications. "It means that Saudi Arabia now benefits from Pakistan's nuclear deterrence," he said, highlighting that the deal is "comprehensive," including nuclear weapons. "We now officially have two nuclear-backed blocs in the Middle East: US-Israel vs Pakistan-Saudi." This shift could drastically alter the security dynamics of the region, with Saudi Arabia now aligned with a nation that explicitly rejects the "no first use" doctrine on nuclear weapons.
The pact also represents a deeper military alignment with China. "Given that 81% of Pakistan's weapon imports come from China, it also means that Saudi Arabia just indirectly aligned itself with the Chinese military-industrial complex," Bertrand explained. This could pave the way for the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Persian Gulf, secured by Pakistani nuclear weapons and Chinese military technology, creating a new energy corridor that bypasses traditional Western-controlled shipping routes like the Strait of Malacca.
The timing of the deal is also significant, coming just days after Israel's strike on Qatar, which Bertrand views as a clear demonstration of the declining effectiveness of US protection. "The timing is probably no coincidence," he remarked. "This is the ultimate proof of the worthlessness of US protection.”
Bertrand warned that this pact could lead to a cascading collapse of the US-led global alliance system. "Other Gulf states, and probably in due times other countries 'protected' by the U.S., are likely to explore comparable models in the next few months," he said. This could mark the beginning of a shift in international relations, with regional nuclear powers becoming security providers rather than relying on traditional Western powers.
The deal also complicates the prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalisation. Bertrand argued, "It's hard to see how this doesn't permanently kill any chance of Israel-Saudi normalization. Pakistan does not recognize Israel either, and with this alliance, the Saudis now can resist US pressure as they don't solely depend on them for their defense."
For India, Bertrand sees the pact as a significant blow. "It puts India in an extremely tough spot: its archenemy just became the security guarantor for one of its primary energy suppliers," he warned. This development raises serious concerns for India's strategic positioning, particularly regarding energy supply security.
Additionally, Bertrand argues that the Saudi-Pakistan pact will likely kill the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a key countermeasure to China's Belt and Road Initiative. "This undoubtedly kills IMEC," he said. "The Biden administration's flagship grand strategy to counter China's Belt and Road was supposed to connect India to Europe via Saudi Arabia. This deal severely undermines that vision."
The IMEC is a proposed mega infrastructure initiative unveiled at the G20 Summit in 2023, aimed at enhancing connectivity and economic integration between India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe. Envisioned as a multi-modal trade route featuring railways, ports, and digital networks, IMEC is intended to streamline the movement of goods, energy, and data to boost commerce while offering an alternative to China's BRI. Backed by the US, EU, India, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, the corridor is expected to strengthen strategic ties among the participating countries and facilitate faster, more secure trade across continents.
Finally, Bertrand also sees a shift in the global financial system, noting that the pact could signal the end of the petrodollar system. "Saudi Arabia is now much more flexible to price oil in whatever currency it wishes," he said. This move could have lasting repercussions on global trade and the dominance of the US dollar in energy markets.
Geopolitics commentator and co-founder of HouseTrip, Arnaud Bertrand, on Thursday raised alarms over the defense pact signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, warning that it could lead to significant geopolitical shifts. According to Bertrand, the strategic partnership, which includes a mutual defense clause stating that any aggression against either country will be considered an act of aggression against both, could have far-reaching consequences for India and the broader Middle East.
Bertrand described the development as a "Suez moment" for the US, comparing it to a historical turning point in global geopolitics. "I don't think I'm exaggerating by saying that this truly is the US's Suez moment: Saudi Arabia just entered into a NATO-like alliance with Pakistan whereby 'any attack on either country is an attack on both.'"
He further noted the symbolic weight of the pact, stressing that Saudi Arabia, once seen as a US client state, had moved away from its reliance on American security guarantees. "Saudi Arabia was in many ways THE poster child of US client states. If they no longer trust American security guarantees, why should anyone else?" Bertrand asked. He added that the fact this agreement was allowed to happen without US intervention was also telling.
Bertrand emphasised the implications of this defense deal, particularly its nuclear ramifications. "It means that Saudi Arabia now benefits from Pakistan's nuclear deterrence," he said, highlighting that the deal is "comprehensive," including nuclear weapons. "We now officially have two nuclear-backed blocs in the Middle East: US-Israel vs Pakistan-Saudi." This shift could drastically alter the security dynamics of the region, with Saudi Arabia now aligned with a nation that explicitly rejects the "no first use" doctrine on nuclear weapons.
The pact also represents a deeper military alignment with China. "Given that 81% of Pakistan's weapon imports come from China, it also means that Saudi Arabia just indirectly aligned itself with the Chinese military-industrial complex," Bertrand explained. This could pave the way for the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Persian Gulf, secured by Pakistani nuclear weapons and Chinese military technology, creating a new energy corridor that bypasses traditional Western-controlled shipping routes like the Strait of Malacca.
The timing of the deal is also significant, coming just days after Israel's strike on Qatar, which Bertrand views as a clear demonstration of the declining effectiveness of US protection. "The timing is probably no coincidence," he remarked. "This is the ultimate proof of the worthlessness of US protection.”
Bertrand warned that this pact could lead to a cascading collapse of the US-led global alliance system. "Other Gulf states, and probably in due times other countries 'protected' by the U.S., are likely to explore comparable models in the next few months," he said. This could mark the beginning of a shift in international relations, with regional nuclear powers becoming security providers rather than relying on traditional Western powers.
The deal also complicates the prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalisation. Bertrand argued, "It's hard to see how this doesn't permanently kill any chance of Israel-Saudi normalization. Pakistan does not recognize Israel either, and with this alliance, the Saudis now can resist US pressure as they don't solely depend on them for their defense."
For India, Bertrand sees the pact as a significant blow. "It puts India in an extremely tough spot: its archenemy just became the security guarantor for one of its primary energy suppliers," he warned. This development raises serious concerns for India's strategic positioning, particularly regarding energy supply security.
Additionally, Bertrand argues that the Saudi-Pakistan pact will likely kill the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a key countermeasure to China's Belt and Road Initiative. "This undoubtedly kills IMEC," he said. "The Biden administration's flagship grand strategy to counter China's Belt and Road was supposed to connect India to Europe via Saudi Arabia. This deal severely undermines that vision."
The IMEC is a proposed mega infrastructure initiative unveiled at the G20 Summit in 2023, aimed at enhancing connectivity and economic integration between India, the Arabian Gulf, and Europe. Envisioned as a multi-modal trade route featuring railways, ports, and digital networks, IMEC is intended to streamline the movement of goods, energy, and data to boost commerce while offering an alternative to China's BRI. Backed by the US, EU, India, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, the corridor is expected to strengthen strategic ties among the participating countries and facilitate faster, more secure trade across continents.
Finally, Bertrand also sees a shift in the global financial system, noting that the pact could signal the end of the petrodollar system. "Saudi Arabia is now much more flexible to price oil in whatever currency it wishes," he said. This move could have lasting repercussions on global trade and the dominance of the US dollar in energy markets.