Why India can't ditch Russian oil for US shale, even if Trump insists
Energy expert Anas Al Hajji says Indian refineries are built for medium sour crude, not US shale output
- Sep 28, 2025,
- Updated Sep 28, 2025 5:18 PM IST
India cannot simply replace Russian crude with oil from the United States because of fundamental technical differences, energy expert Dr. Anas Al Hajji has said.
US President Donald Trump wants India to cut back on imports of Russian oil and buy more from America. However, the energy expert said that India cannot do it, because of its refineries.
"The United States is the largest oil producer and among the largest exporters in the world. (But) India cannot import much from the US. They can add, probably, one tanker or two tankers a month - that's it, to replace Russian oil," Al Hajji said in an interview with The Core. "The Indian refineries are geared toward medium sour and heavy sour crude, while most of the US exports are light sweet because US shale produces light sweet crude."
He added: "If Trump talks to Prime Minister Modi and says you have to buy more from us, it's not up to Prime Minister Modi because it's a technical issue. We cannot get your oil simply because it's light sweet. And our refineries, basically, are geared more toward medium sour. So that's an issue."
The expert explained that historically, India's main suppliers have been Gulf states and Iraq, because of their proximity to Indian ports. At times, New Delhi has diversified by importing from West Africa, Brazil, and Mexico. But after European and G7 sanctions on Russia, Moscow was forced to find new buyers and began selling at discounts.
"India started importing the Russian crude at a discount. And that Russian crude has to come at the expense of someone else. Logically speaking, you are going to replace the most expensive crude. And the most expensive crude coming to India is mostly because of the distance," Al Hajji said, noting that Indian refiners first reduced imports from South America, then the United States, then West Africa.
If Russian flows face a crisis, he said, the replacement will follow the reverse order: first West Africa, then the US, and Latin America. Gulf producers have spare capacity and could compensate, "but the question is will they do it and how much they are going to increase production to compensate? This no one can answer at this stage," he said.
Al Hajji also described how the balance of power has shifted in the oil market with China emerging as an influential buyer since 2016. "The oil market has never been competitive. There is some sort of oligopoly in the market. But China changed that game by being a very influential buyer. That changed the market, basically prevented oil prices from going up substantially…China will buy low, store the oil, and when oil prices go up, start dumping oil from storage on the market. This is a new behavior in the market, and it became extremely influential as influential as the OPEC members or OPEC plus members in the market," he said.
India, he argued, does not yet have the capacity to play that role. "India's problem right now when it comes to the oil market is - its inventories are very low, and it needs to enlarge those inventories to be more energy secured and not to be affected by sudden increases in prices because of various political issues. India's inventories are about 100 million. For the size of the economy of India, this is very low, and it needs to go to at least 350 or 400 million," he said.
India cannot simply replace Russian crude with oil from the United States because of fundamental technical differences, energy expert Dr. Anas Al Hajji has said.
US President Donald Trump wants India to cut back on imports of Russian oil and buy more from America. However, the energy expert said that India cannot do it, because of its refineries.
"The United States is the largest oil producer and among the largest exporters in the world. (But) India cannot import much from the US. They can add, probably, one tanker or two tankers a month - that's it, to replace Russian oil," Al Hajji said in an interview with The Core. "The Indian refineries are geared toward medium sour and heavy sour crude, while most of the US exports are light sweet because US shale produces light sweet crude."
He added: "If Trump talks to Prime Minister Modi and says you have to buy more from us, it's not up to Prime Minister Modi because it's a technical issue. We cannot get your oil simply because it's light sweet. And our refineries, basically, are geared more toward medium sour. So that's an issue."
The expert explained that historically, India's main suppliers have been Gulf states and Iraq, because of their proximity to Indian ports. At times, New Delhi has diversified by importing from West Africa, Brazil, and Mexico. But after European and G7 sanctions on Russia, Moscow was forced to find new buyers and began selling at discounts.
"India started importing the Russian crude at a discount. And that Russian crude has to come at the expense of someone else. Logically speaking, you are going to replace the most expensive crude. And the most expensive crude coming to India is mostly because of the distance," Al Hajji said, noting that Indian refiners first reduced imports from South America, then the United States, then West Africa.
If Russian flows face a crisis, he said, the replacement will follow the reverse order: first West Africa, then the US, and Latin America. Gulf producers have spare capacity and could compensate, "but the question is will they do it and how much they are going to increase production to compensate? This no one can answer at this stage," he said.
Al Hajji also described how the balance of power has shifted in the oil market with China emerging as an influential buyer since 2016. "The oil market has never been competitive. There is some sort of oligopoly in the market. But China changed that game by being a very influential buyer. That changed the market, basically prevented oil prices from going up substantially…China will buy low, store the oil, and when oil prices go up, start dumping oil from storage on the market. This is a new behavior in the market, and it became extremely influential as influential as the OPEC members or OPEC plus members in the market," he said.
India, he argued, does not yet have the capacity to play that role. "India's problem right now when it comes to the oil market is - its inventories are very low, and it needs to enlarge those inventories to be more energy secured and not to be affected by sudden increases in prices because of various political issues. India's inventories are about 100 million. For the size of the economy of India, this is very low, and it needs to go to at least 350 or 400 million," he said.