After Nitish Kumar's exit, Grand Alliance looks destined to fail against the BJP. Here's why
Call it a political manoeuvring or Nitish Kumar's opportunism, but one has to concede that the Grand Alliance was never a serious alternative due to weak agenda and whatever weight it carried - with the stalwart like Nitish Kumar - is now completely gone.
The Grand Alliance has collapsed-and how! Wednesday night's development in Bihar politics has not only changed the power equation in the corridor of state assembly - with BJP making a comeback to power, replacing RJD - but has set the tone for the General Election-2019.
Call it a political manoeuvring or Nitish Kumar's opportunism, but one has to concede that the Grand Alliance was never a serious alternative due to weak agenda and whatever weight it carried - with the stalwart like Nitish Kumar - is now completely gone, leaving it to leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and CPI chief Sitaram Yechury.
Will it be possible for these leaders to unite and take on the BJP? It depends on how quickly these leaders realize that how out-of-touch they are with the reality. JDU Chief has served them a reminder, and a chilling one. But, that's not the point. What is important to underline is that how by bringing back Nitish Kumar to NDA, the Prime Minister has taken down a man who had the potential to challenge -if not remove- him in 2019.
Nitish Kumar who is also known as Sushashan Babu has a reputation of an honest and clean politician working in the interest of the people of Bihar. It was believed that he might be the face of Grand Alliance in next general elections. However, the opposition has not only lost its one of the most credible faces - Nitish, but has also lost the plot ahead of the next crucial face-off. With Nitish Kumar leaving the Grand Alliance, the opposition is left with the leaders who show very little promise when pitted against the BJP's strong duo of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
So who are the leaders who would try to stop Modi's juggernaut in 2019 general Elections, and what are their weaknesses?
RAHUL GANDHI: Earlier in the month, Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia told a news agency that party Vise-President Rahul Gandhi will be the face of larger opposition in General Election in 2019. No other opposition leader has reacted on it as yet. The Congress scion has not been able to make any strong impact in Indian politics. Under his leadership, the Congress was reduced to dust in 2014 genaral election and subsequent elections in states. Historian Ramachandra Guha writes that in general public views 'Rahul Gandhi is an object of ridicule and contempt'.
Weakness: Represents Dynastic politics, known as reluctant politician, no grip on veteran party leaders (leaders left the Congress and joined BJP under his watch), lacks vision for India, silent on corruption. ARVIND KEJRIWAL: Anti-Corruption crusader-turned politician Arvind Kejriwal was a man, until few months ago, who seemed to have the potential to take on Prime Minister Modi in next general elections. Arvind Kejriwal's phenomenal rise in national politics created ripples across the country especially in two largest parties - Congress and BJP. However, he couldn't maintain the momentum as he failed to deliver on promises made during election campaign. While Kejriwal blames the Central government for not allowing him the autonomy to take decisions to fulfil the promises, the main criticism against him is that he is too ambitious and instead of focussing in Delhi as the Chief Minister, he aspires for a bigger role. What was significant in all this was his move to join opposition in attacking the government of the day. He also shared dais with convicted politicians like Lalau Prasad Yadav. Arvind Kejriwal had promised to bring positive politics but he joined opposition to attack the centre on several issues.MULAYAM SINGH YADAV: Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav had once left his Chief Ministerial post to his son Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh, but his son still wants him to become the Prime Minister of India. In an interview last year, Akhilesh Yadav had said that he would have no issue going with an Alliance with the Congress at national level if his father is made the Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi his deputy. Mulayam Singh matters for the grand alliances because he comes from a state which has 80 parliament seats, but given that the SP has already lost the state to BJP, the chances are quite minimal to retain UP again in 2019. Aging Mulayam doesn't represent the aspiration of today's youth which may not help him win the votes for the Grand Alliances. MAMATA BANERJEE: West Bengal Chief Minister is the fiercest critic of PM Narendra Modi. But an alliance fighting against the BJP can't count on her in the next general election. She is a regional leader and has no presence in other states other than West Bengal. This is her second term as the Chief Minister, however, Banerjee failed to live up to the expectations of the people. Recent communal flare up in the state has hurt Mamata Banerjee image further as reports accused her of doing Muslim appeasement politics.
There are other seasoned politicians like Mayawati, Sitaram Yechuri and NCP chief Sharad Pawar, however, their political clout at this point does not seem to suggest that they can match Prime Minister Modi's political aura.
The Grand Alliance has collapsed-and how! Wednesday night's development in Bihar politics has not only changed the power equation in the corridor of state assembly - with BJP making a comeback to power, replacing RJD - but has set the tone for the General Election-2019.
Call it a political manoeuvring or Nitish Kumar's opportunism, but one has to concede that the Grand Alliance was never a serious alternative due to weak agenda and whatever weight it carried - with the stalwart like Nitish Kumar - is now completely gone, leaving it to leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and CPI chief Sitaram Yechury.
Will it be possible for these leaders to unite and take on the BJP? It depends on how quickly these leaders realize that how out-of-touch they are with the reality. JDU Chief has served them a reminder, and a chilling one. But, that's not the point. What is important to underline is that how by bringing back Nitish Kumar to NDA, the Prime Minister has taken down a man who had the potential to challenge -if not remove- him in 2019.
Nitish Kumar who is also known as Sushashan Babu has a reputation of an honest and clean politician working in the interest of the people of Bihar. It was believed that he might be the face of Grand Alliance in next general elections. However, the opposition has not only lost its one of the most credible faces - Nitish, but has also lost the plot ahead of the next crucial face-off. With Nitish Kumar leaving the Grand Alliance, the opposition is left with the leaders who show very little promise when pitted against the BJP's strong duo of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
So who are the leaders who would try to stop Modi's juggernaut in 2019 general Elections, and what are their weaknesses?
RAHUL GANDHI: Earlier in the month, Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia told a news agency that party Vise-President Rahul Gandhi will be the face of larger opposition in General Election in 2019. No other opposition leader has reacted on it as yet. The Congress scion has not been able to make any strong impact in Indian politics. Under his leadership, the Congress was reduced to dust in 2014 genaral election and subsequent elections in states. Historian Ramachandra Guha writes that in general public views 'Rahul Gandhi is an object of ridicule and contempt'.
Weakness: Represents Dynastic politics, known as reluctant politician, no grip on veteran party leaders (leaders left the Congress and joined BJP under his watch), lacks vision for India, silent on corruption. ARVIND KEJRIWAL: Anti-Corruption crusader-turned politician Arvind Kejriwal was a man, until few months ago, who seemed to have the potential to take on Prime Minister Modi in next general elections. Arvind Kejriwal's phenomenal rise in national politics created ripples across the country especially in two largest parties - Congress and BJP. However, he couldn't maintain the momentum as he failed to deliver on promises made during election campaign. While Kejriwal blames the Central government for not allowing him the autonomy to take decisions to fulfil the promises, the main criticism against him is that he is too ambitious and instead of focussing in Delhi as the Chief Minister, he aspires for a bigger role. What was significant in all this was his move to join opposition in attacking the government of the day. He also shared dais with convicted politicians like Lalau Prasad Yadav. Arvind Kejriwal had promised to bring positive politics but he joined opposition to attack the centre on several issues.MULAYAM SINGH YADAV: Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav had once left his Chief Ministerial post to his son Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh, but his son still wants him to become the Prime Minister of India. In an interview last year, Akhilesh Yadav had said that he would have no issue going with an Alliance with the Congress at national level if his father is made the Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi his deputy. Mulayam Singh matters for the grand alliances because he comes from a state which has 80 parliament seats, but given that the SP has already lost the state to BJP, the chances are quite minimal to retain UP again in 2019. Aging Mulayam doesn't represent the aspiration of today's youth which may not help him win the votes for the Grand Alliances. MAMATA BANERJEE: West Bengal Chief Minister is the fiercest critic of PM Narendra Modi. But an alliance fighting against the BJP can't count on her in the next general election. She is a regional leader and has no presence in other states other than West Bengal. This is her second term as the Chief Minister, however, Banerjee failed to live up to the expectations of the people. Recent communal flare up in the state has hurt Mamata Banerjee image further as reports accused her of doing Muslim appeasement politics.
There are other seasoned politicians like Mayawati, Sitaram Yechuri and NCP chief Sharad Pawar, however, their political clout at this point does not seem to suggest that they can match Prime Minister Modi's political aura.