CSO to release Q2 GDP data today: What to expect from July-September numbers
The second quarter growth, which most economists believe will be slightly better than the previous quarter's 5.7 % will factor in the disruptions in production activities and stocks caused by the rollout of GST from 1, July this year.
- Nov 30, 2017,
- Updated Nov 30, 2017 1:25 PM IST
How did the nationwide rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) impact India's economic growth in its initial days of implementation? Well, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will be providing some hints today as it releases the estimates of the India's economic - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - growth during the second quarter (July-September period) of 2017-18.
The second quarter growth, which most economists believe will be slightly better than the previous quarter's 5.7 % will factor in the disruptions in production activities and stocks caused by the rollout of GST from 1, July this year.
The first quarter GDP growth was the slowest in 13 quarters as it reflected the impact of the other major government triggered disruption - demonetisation of high value currencies - that happened in November last year. With circulation of cash back to near normal, the second quarter is likely to capture the positive impact it had on the economy.
If you go by the high-frequency data that is considered while calculating the GDP, there is enough reason to expect a better performance during the second quarter. With the government frontloading its expenditure, and several states toeing the same line, the numbers from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and the Comptroller General of India (CAG) is likely to be encouraging.
The performance of the companies were also not too bad during the quarter due to increased consumption demand in both urban and rural areas. The index of industrial production and the purchasing managers index both signal slight revival.
What could probably be a dampener will be the agriculture sector as agricultural production during Khariff season was lower than the same season the previous year.
The MoSPI will release the GDP numbers at 5:30 PM.
How did the nationwide rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) impact India's economic growth in its initial days of implementation? Well, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will be providing some hints today as it releases the estimates of the India's economic - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - growth during the second quarter (July-September period) of 2017-18.
The second quarter growth, which most economists believe will be slightly better than the previous quarter's 5.7 % will factor in the disruptions in production activities and stocks caused by the rollout of GST from 1, July this year.
The first quarter GDP growth was the slowest in 13 quarters as it reflected the impact of the other major government triggered disruption - demonetisation of high value currencies - that happened in November last year. With circulation of cash back to near normal, the second quarter is likely to capture the positive impact it had on the economy.
If you go by the high-frequency data that is considered while calculating the GDP, there is enough reason to expect a better performance during the second quarter. With the government frontloading its expenditure, and several states toeing the same line, the numbers from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and the Comptroller General of India (CAG) is likely to be encouraging.
The performance of the companies were also not too bad during the quarter due to increased consumption demand in both urban and rural areas. The index of industrial production and the purchasing managers index both signal slight revival.
What could probably be a dampener will be the agriculture sector as agricultural production during Khariff season was lower than the same season the previous year.
The MoSPI will release the GDP numbers at 5:30 PM.