Driest August: India faces record low rains, summer crops under threat
By August 15, the monsoon fell to 5 per cent in the negative, going below the normal range of 4 per cent of LPA, according to latest IMD data.
- Aug 19, 2023,
- Updated Aug 19, 2023 5:48 PM IST
India may experience the driest August in more than a century as the monsoon activity weakened from above-normal to below-normal in a matter of 15 days, recent data of India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated.
Till the start of this month, the southwest monsoon was 5 per cent higher than the long period average (LPA). By August 15, the monsoon fell to 5 per cent in the negative, going below the normal range of 4 per cent of LPA.
As per the data, the first half of August saw rainfall 35% below LPA. In July, the monsoon saw a long active spell, which was 13% higher than normal rains.
The rainfall deficit in August is expected to be the lowest since records began in 1901, a Reuters report said on Friday. The dip in rainfall could dent yields of summer-sown crops, such as rice and soybeans, which can further push prices and overall food inflation.
Retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, surged to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July this year from 4.87 per cent a month ago as prices of food items, especially vegetables, shot up.
Inflation in consumer food price index inflation rose to 11.51% in July while inflation in the food and beverages basket jumped to 10.57. Retail inflation in vegetables surged to 37.34 per cent last month from a deflation of -0.93 per cent in June.
Currently, several states of eastern India are seeing large rain deficits, while the south is witnessing an increasing shortfall.
"The monsoon is not reviving as we had expected," said a senior official at the Met department told Reuters.
"We are going to end the month with a significant deficit in the southern, western, and central parts," he added.
India is on course to receive an average of less than 180 mm (7 inches) of rainfall this month based on rains so far, he further said. The weather authorities are expected to announce August totals of rainfall and the forecast for September on Aug. 31 or Sept. 1.
India received just 90.7 mm (3.6 inches) in the first 17 days of August, nearly 40% lower than the normal. The month's normal average is 254.9 mm (10 inches), he said.
Earlier, the IMD had anticipated a rainfall deficit of up to 8% in August. The lowest August rainfall on record was in 2005, with 191.2 mm (7.5 inches).
Monsoon rainfall is expected to improve over the next two weeks in the northeast and some central regions, but dry conditions in northwestern and southern states are likely to persist, said another IMD official.
"Normally, we experience a dry spell of five to seven days in August," said the official.
"However, this year the dry spell has been unusually prolonged in southern India. The El Niño weather pattern has begun to impact the Indian monsoon."
The Met department had previously said that there is a high possibility of the development of an El Nino weather pattern during the monsoon season this year.
However, monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal. The season is likely to produce 96 per cent of normal rainfall, the Met Department said. The monsoon, vital for the $3-trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain India needs to water farms and refill reservoirs and aquifers.
Farmers typically start planting rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts, among other crops, from June 1, when the monsoon begins to lash the southern state of Kerala.
The lengthy dry spell has led to extremely low soil moisture, which could inhibit the growth of crops, said Harish Galipelli, director of trading firm ILA Commodities India, told Reuters.
(With agency inputs)
Also read: Retail inflation at 15-month high in July: Food inflation worries likely to persist in months ahead
Also read: WPI inflation in July recorded at -1.36% against -4.12% in June
India may experience the driest August in more than a century as the monsoon activity weakened from above-normal to below-normal in a matter of 15 days, recent data of India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated.
Till the start of this month, the southwest monsoon was 5 per cent higher than the long period average (LPA). By August 15, the monsoon fell to 5 per cent in the negative, going below the normal range of 4 per cent of LPA.
As per the data, the first half of August saw rainfall 35% below LPA. In July, the monsoon saw a long active spell, which was 13% higher than normal rains.
The rainfall deficit in August is expected to be the lowest since records began in 1901, a Reuters report said on Friday. The dip in rainfall could dent yields of summer-sown crops, such as rice and soybeans, which can further push prices and overall food inflation.
Retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, surged to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July this year from 4.87 per cent a month ago as prices of food items, especially vegetables, shot up.
Inflation in consumer food price index inflation rose to 11.51% in July while inflation in the food and beverages basket jumped to 10.57. Retail inflation in vegetables surged to 37.34 per cent last month from a deflation of -0.93 per cent in June.
Currently, several states of eastern India are seeing large rain deficits, while the south is witnessing an increasing shortfall.
"The monsoon is not reviving as we had expected," said a senior official at the Met department told Reuters.
"We are going to end the month with a significant deficit in the southern, western, and central parts," he added.
India is on course to receive an average of less than 180 mm (7 inches) of rainfall this month based on rains so far, he further said. The weather authorities are expected to announce August totals of rainfall and the forecast for September on Aug. 31 or Sept. 1.
India received just 90.7 mm (3.6 inches) in the first 17 days of August, nearly 40% lower than the normal. The month's normal average is 254.9 mm (10 inches), he said.
Earlier, the IMD had anticipated a rainfall deficit of up to 8% in August. The lowest August rainfall on record was in 2005, with 191.2 mm (7.5 inches).
Monsoon rainfall is expected to improve over the next two weeks in the northeast and some central regions, but dry conditions in northwestern and southern states are likely to persist, said another IMD official.
"Normally, we experience a dry spell of five to seven days in August," said the official.
"However, this year the dry spell has been unusually prolonged in southern India. The El Niño weather pattern has begun to impact the Indian monsoon."
The Met department had previously said that there is a high possibility of the development of an El Nino weather pattern during the monsoon season this year.
However, monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal. The season is likely to produce 96 per cent of normal rainfall, the Met Department said. The monsoon, vital for the $3-trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain India needs to water farms and refill reservoirs and aquifers.
Farmers typically start planting rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts, among other crops, from June 1, when the monsoon begins to lash the southern state of Kerala.
The lengthy dry spell has led to extremely low soil moisture, which could inhibit the growth of crops, said Harish Galipelli, director of trading firm ILA Commodities India, told Reuters.
(With agency inputs)
Also read: Retail inflation at 15-month high in July: Food inflation worries likely to persist in months ahead
Also read: WPI inflation in July recorded at -1.36% against -4.12% in June