First advance estimates: Ahead of Budget 2025, India braces for sluggish 6.4% economic growth
Gross value added (GVA), a critical measure that excludes indirect taxes and subsidies, is expected to match GDP growth at 6.4%. Meanwhile, nominal GDP, the foundation for budget calculations, is anticipated to rise by 9.7%.
- Jan 7, 2025,
- Updated Jan 7, 2025 4:18 PM IST
India’s economy is poised for its slowest growth in four years, with GDP expected to expand by 6.4% in fiscal 2024-25.
The first advance estimates, released by the Central Statistics Office just ahead of the Union Budget, signal a significant deceleration in the economic trajectory.
This projection aligns with forecasts from a Bloomberg poll of economists, pegging growth at 6.4%. The Reserve Bank of India also trimmed its outlook for the prior fiscal year, revising its earlier estimate of 7.2% to 6.6%.
Gross value added (GVA), a critical measure that excludes indirect taxes and subsidies, is expected to match GDP growth at 6.4%. Meanwhile, nominal GDP, the foundation for budget calculations, is anticipated to rise by 9.7%.
The agriculture and allied sectors are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024-25, a significant recovery from the 1.4% growth recorded last year. Meanwhile, the construction sector and the financial, real estate, and professional services sectors are expected to post robust growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.
Private final consumption expenditure, a key indicator of consumer demand, has surged by 7.3% this fiscal, a marked improvement from the 4% growth seen in the previous year. Similarly, government final consumption expenditure has rebounded to a 4.1% growth rate, compared to 2.5% in the last financial year.
These figures set the stage for the government’s fiscal strategy, shaping critical decisions as the Union Budget looms large.
India’s economy is poised for its slowest growth in four years, with GDP expected to expand by 6.4% in fiscal 2024-25.
The first advance estimates, released by the Central Statistics Office just ahead of the Union Budget, signal a significant deceleration in the economic trajectory.
This projection aligns with forecasts from a Bloomberg poll of economists, pegging growth at 6.4%. The Reserve Bank of India also trimmed its outlook for the prior fiscal year, revising its earlier estimate of 7.2% to 6.6%.
Gross value added (GVA), a critical measure that excludes indirect taxes and subsidies, is expected to match GDP growth at 6.4%. Meanwhile, nominal GDP, the foundation for budget calculations, is anticipated to rise by 9.7%.
The agriculture and allied sectors are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024-25, a significant recovery from the 1.4% growth recorded last year. Meanwhile, the construction sector and the financial, real estate, and professional services sectors are expected to post robust growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.
Private final consumption expenditure, a key indicator of consumer demand, has surged by 7.3% this fiscal, a marked improvement from the 4% growth seen in the previous year. Similarly, government final consumption expenditure has rebounded to a 4.1% growth rate, compared to 2.5% in the last financial year.
These figures set the stage for the government’s fiscal strategy, shaping critical decisions as the Union Budget looms large.