Global oil inventories could hit critical levels by September if West Asia disruptions persist: Report
Global oil markets could face renewed volatility as persistent Middle East disruptions continue to drain inventories and tighten physical supplies, according to ANZ Research. The bank warns that crude stockpiles may approach critical levels by September if supply losses from the Persian Gulf remain elevated.
- Jun 11, 2026,
- Updated Jun 11, 2026 12:18 PM IST
Persistent disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf could push global crude inventories to critically low levels by September and tighten fuel supplies further, according to ANZ Research's latest Global Oil Market Tracker.
The report warned that prolonged supply losses are steadily eroding global stockpiles, while demand remains resilient, increasing the risk of sustained volatility in crude markets.
ANZ estimates that global crude inventories could continue falling if losses from the Persian Gulf remain at around 10.5 million barrels per day. Under this scenario, inventories may approach their effective lower limit by September 2026. Oil product inventories could reach critical levels even earlier, potentially by August, leaving the market with only about 20 days of cover.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade, remains subdued despite signs of improvement. Tanker movements are still far below normal levels, keeping supply chains under pressure.
According to the report, focus has shifted toward a sharp decline in Middle East crude runs, which fell by around 6.8 million barrels per day in May. Saudi export strength through the Red Sea has also weakened, adding to concerns about available supplies.
ANZ noted that disruptions in the Persian Gulf have resulted in a net oil deficit of about 9.1 million barrels per day after taking into account pipeline diversions and emergency stockpile releases.
Supply shock
The report highlighted China's role in easing pressure on the physical market. China's crude imports, which were running at around 12.5 million barrels per day before the escalation of Middle East tensions, have dropped to roughly 2.5 million barrels per day.
As a result, more than 60 million barrels of crude have effectively been saved since late February, helping offset some of the global supply disruptions.
ANZ said weaker manufacturing activity, growing electric vehicle adoption, reduced domestic flights and slower refining operations have likely lowered China's oil demand by around 1 million barrels per day over the past month.
However, the bank cautioned that this trend may not be permanent. A recovery in mobility and industrial activity could eventually push Chinese imports higher, tightening the market further.
Prices remain elevated
Brent crude prices have retreated from recent highs but remain in the mid-$90-per-barrel range. Physical balances for crude and refined products continue to tighten due to falling inventories and expectations of stronger summer demand.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has raised July production quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day, increasing Saudi Arabia's quota to 10.35 million barrels per day. ANZ said the additional supply remains largely symbolic for now, with its impact dependent on a normalization of shipping routes.
Inventories showing signs of stress
The report also pointed to sharp declines in global oil product inventories and continued drawdowns in oil stored at sea.
Although drilling activity in the US has increased, production has remained broadly unchanged, limiting the scope for a quick supply response.
ANZ said near-term oil price volatility is likely to persist as geopolitical risks, low inventories and seasonal demand continue to shape market dynamics.
The report added that progress in ceasefire negotiations and any early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before August could help restore oil flows and ease some of the pressure on global energy markets.
Persistent disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf could push global crude inventories to critically low levels by September and tighten fuel supplies further, according to ANZ Research's latest Global Oil Market Tracker.
The report warned that prolonged supply losses are steadily eroding global stockpiles, while demand remains resilient, increasing the risk of sustained volatility in crude markets.
ANZ estimates that global crude inventories could continue falling if losses from the Persian Gulf remain at around 10.5 million barrels per day. Under this scenario, inventories may approach their effective lower limit by September 2026. Oil product inventories could reach critical levels even earlier, potentially by August, leaving the market with only about 20 days of cover.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade, remains subdued despite signs of improvement. Tanker movements are still far below normal levels, keeping supply chains under pressure.
According to the report, focus has shifted toward a sharp decline in Middle East crude runs, which fell by around 6.8 million barrels per day in May. Saudi export strength through the Red Sea has also weakened, adding to concerns about available supplies.
ANZ noted that disruptions in the Persian Gulf have resulted in a net oil deficit of about 9.1 million barrels per day after taking into account pipeline diversions and emergency stockpile releases.
Supply shock
The report highlighted China's role in easing pressure on the physical market. China's crude imports, which were running at around 12.5 million barrels per day before the escalation of Middle East tensions, have dropped to roughly 2.5 million barrels per day.
As a result, more than 60 million barrels of crude have effectively been saved since late February, helping offset some of the global supply disruptions.
ANZ said weaker manufacturing activity, growing electric vehicle adoption, reduced domestic flights and slower refining operations have likely lowered China's oil demand by around 1 million barrels per day over the past month.
However, the bank cautioned that this trend may not be permanent. A recovery in mobility and industrial activity could eventually push Chinese imports higher, tightening the market further.
Prices remain elevated
Brent crude prices have retreated from recent highs but remain in the mid-$90-per-barrel range. Physical balances for crude and refined products continue to tighten due to falling inventories and expectations of stronger summer demand.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has raised July production quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day, increasing Saudi Arabia's quota to 10.35 million barrels per day. ANZ said the additional supply remains largely symbolic for now, with its impact dependent on a normalization of shipping routes.
Inventories showing signs of stress
The report also pointed to sharp declines in global oil product inventories and continued drawdowns in oil stored at sea.
Although drilling activity in the US has increased, production has remained broadly unchanged, limiting the scope for a quick supply response.
ANZ said near-term oil price volatility is likely to persist as geopolitical risks, low inventories and seasonal demand continue to shape market dynamics.
The report added that progress in ceasefire negotiations and any early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before August could help restore oil flows and ease some of the pressure on global energy markets.