India emerges as Kenya’s new fuel lifeline as West Asia supply disruptions deepen
Data from Kpler and EOA shows the share of Indian petroleum product supplies to Kenya rising steadily between January and August, with the shift becoming particularly visible in the latest two months.
- Aug 26, 2026,
- Updated Aug 26, 2026 8:56 PM IST
India has emerged as a major alternative supplier of refined petroleum products to Kenya as disruptions to fuel flows from West Asia push the East African nation to diversify its sources. Indian refiners are supplying gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil, replacing cargoes that traditionally came from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Data from Kpler and EOA shows the share of Indian petroleum product supplies to Kenya rising steadily between January and August, with the shift becoming particularly visible in the latest two months. Kenya’s overall fuel imports, however, have remained substantial, suggesting the crisis has primarily changed the source of supplies rather than reduced demand.
The UAE, which was Kenya’s dominant supplier at the beginning of the year, saw its shipments fall sharply from around 90,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in January to about 15,000 kb/d in August, according to the data cited in the report.
Citing information from Belgian commodity-data company Kpler, Dallas-based energy economist Anas Alhajji said, "India has replaced the UAE and Saudi Arabia as the supplier of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil to Kenya."
India’s refining strength comes into focus
India’s growing role in Kenya comes as the country leverages its large refining capacity and flexible export routes. According to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India is the world’s fourth-largest oil refiner and Asia’s second-largest, with 22 operational refineries and installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes annually.
Indian refiners exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2025-26, despite the country importing more than 90% of its crude oil. The world’s largest oil-refining complex, Reliance Industries’ facility at Jamnagar in Gujarat, is also located in India.
The disruption has also coincided with a broader increase in India’s fuel exports to Africa. Alhajji said India’s petroleum-product exports to Africa reached a record high in July, rising 66% year-on-year. He attributed the shift partly to the European Union’s restrictions on imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude in third countries, which redirected Indian cargoes towards other markets.
Kenya turns to India for fuel security
Kenya had traditionally relied heavily on Gulf producers under its government-to-government fuel procurement system, with Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC and Emirates National Oil Company among its key suppliers.
Evidence of India’s expanding role emerged earlier this year. Official documents reviewed by Business Daily Africa showed that 82.38 million litres of kerosene loaded at Sikka port in India were discharged at Mombasa on March 19. A further 156.75 million litres, comprising 81.15 million litres of kerosene and 75.6 million litres of diesel, were scheduled for shipment from Sikka in April.
Vortexa data cited by Argus also showed around 60,000 tonnes of gasoline shipped from India to Kenya in April.
Kenya’s overall petroleum-product inflows stood at around 200 kb/d in July and 185 kb/d in August, indicating that the disruption has resulted in a reconfiguration of supply sources rather than a collapse in fuel imports.
Trade ties deepen alongside fuel flows
India’s exports to Kenya increased 151.41% by value in July 2026 from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The increase covers all product categories, although petroleum products were a major contributor to India’s broader export growth.
Globally, India’s petroleum-product exports rose 67.64%, from $4.13 billion in July 2025 to $6.92 billion in July 2026.
India was Kenya’s third-largest trading partner in 2025-26, with bilateral trade reaching $4.31 billion. Indian exports accounted for $4.01 billion, while imports from Kenya stood at $290 million. Petroleum products are among the principal Indian exports to Kenya.
The shift highlights India’s growing role as a swing supplier of refined fuels when geopolitical disruptions affect traditional supply routes. As Middle Eastern and Russian fuel flows remain vulnerable to conflict and shipping disruptions, Indian refiners are increasingly positioned to serve markets facing shortages.
India has emerged as a major alternative supplier of refined petroleum products to Kenya as disruptions to fuel flows from West Asia push the East African nation to diversify its sources. Indian refiners are supplying gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil, replacing cargoes that traditionally came from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Data from Kpler and EOA shows the share of Indian petroleum product supplies to Kenya rising steadily between January and August, with the shift becoming particularly visible in the latest two months. Kenya’s overall fuel imports, however, have remained substantial, suggesting the crisis has primarily changed the source of supplies rather than reduced demand.
The UAE, which was Kenya’s dominant supplier at the beginning of the year, saw its shipments fall sharply from around 90,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in January to about 15,000 kb/d in August, according to the data cited in the report.
Citing information from Belgian commodity-data company Kpler, Dallas-based energy economist Anas Alhajji said, "India has replaced the UAE and Saudi Arabia as the supplier of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil to Kenya."
India’s refining strength comes into focus
India’s growing role in Kenya comes as the country leverages its large refining capacity and flexible export routes. According to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India is the world’s fourth-largest oil refiner and Asia’s second-largest, with 22 operational refineries and installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes annually.
Indian refiners exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2025-26, despite the country importing more than 90% of its crude oil. The world’s largest oil-refining complex, Reliance Industries’ facility at Jamnagar in Gujarat, is also located in India.
The disruption has also coincided with a broader increase in India’s fuel exports to Africa. Alhajji said India’s petroleum-product exports to Africa reached a record high in July, rising 66% year-on-year. He attributed the shift partly to the European Union’s restrictions on imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude in third countries, which redirected Indian cargoes towards other markets.
Kenya turns to India for fuel security
Kenya had traditionally relied heavily on Gulf producers under its government-to-government fuel procurement system, with Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC and Emirates National Oil Company among its key suppliers.
Evidence of India’s expanding role emerged earlier this year. Official documents reviewed by Business Daily Africa showed that 82.38 million litres of kerosene loaded at Sikka port in India were discharged at Mombasa on March 19. A further 156.75 million litres, comprising 81.15 million litres of kerosene and 75.6 million litres of diesel, were scheduled for shipment from Sikka in April.
Vortexa data cited by Argus also showed around 60,000 tonnes of gasoline shipped from India to Kenya in April.
Kenya’s overall petroleum-product inflows stood at around 200 kb/d in July and 185 kb/d in August, indicating that the disruption has resulted in a reconfiguration of supply sources rather than a collapse in fuel imports.
Trade ties deepen alongside fuel flows
India’s exports to Kenya increased 151.41% by value in July 2026 from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The increase covers all product categories, although petroleum products were a major contributor to India’s broader export growth.
Globally, India’s petroleum-product exports rose 67.64%, from $4.13 billion in July 2025 to $6.92 billion in July 2026.
India was Kenya’s third-largest trading partner in 2025-26, with bilateral trade reaching $4.31 billion. Indian exports accounted for $4.01 billion, while imports from Kenya stood at $290 million. Petroleum products are among the principal Indian exports to Kenya.
The shift highlights India’s growing role as a swing supplier of refined fuels when geopolitical disruptions affect traditional supply routes. As Middle Eastern and Russian fuel flows remain vulnerable to conflict and shipping disruptions, Indian refiners are increasingly positioned to serve markets facing shortages.