India is the second-best BRICS performer, but that is not enough: Economist Surjit Bhalla

India is the second-best performer among the five original BRICS members and has made real economic progress over the past 15 years. But that progress is not enough to show that the grouping is driving India's economic future, economist Surjit Bhalla said in a detailed post on Sunday.

Bhalla examined BRICS' economic and trade performance from 2011 to 2025 and argued that the grouping's growth has been driven overwhelmingly by China. Outside China, BRICS members have either stagnated or lost ground.

"India is the second-best performer among the five long-standing members and 26th in the world, at 5.2 per cent a year," Bhalla said.

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India's share of world income rose from 2.5% in 2011 to 3.5% in 2025, while its per-capita income increased from 13.4% of the world average to 18.7%. "That is real progress and it should be said plainly, because the fashion is to say otherwise," noted economist said. 

But he added: "It is also not enough."

Bhalla served as Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for India from November 2019 to October 2022. Before that, he was a part-time member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM)

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China Drives BRICS' Rise

BRICS' share of world income rose from 21.9% in 2011 to 28.9% in 2025. But excluding China, the share fell from 11.9% to 11.5%, according to Bhalla's calculations using World Bank income data.

China alone increased its share from 10% to 17.4% and accounted for 72% of the entire increase in BRICS income during the period.

Among the four original members other than China - Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa - the share of world income fell from 8.5% to 7.9%.

The concentration has also increased within the bloc. China accounted for 45.6% of BRICS income in 2011. That has risen to 60.2%. Among the five long-standing members, its share has increased from 54.1% to 68.9%. "The grouping has become more Chinese by every measure except people," the economist said.

BRICS accounted for 50.9% of the world’s population in 2011 and 50.5% in 2025.

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Trade Tells A Similar Story

The trade numbers, Bhalla said, are even sharper.

BRICS' share of world goods exports rose from 23% in 2011 to 25% in 2023. But excluding China, it fell from 12.4% to 10.1%. 

China accounted for 94% of the increase in BRICS goods exports over the period.

The former IMF economist acknowledged that the comparison is not entirely clean because Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran are oil exporters, making their export shares sensitive to oil prices.

Excluding China and those four oil exporters, the remaining six members - Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia - accounted for 5.1% of world goods exports in both 2011 and 2023.

"That is the cleanest number in this exercise, and it is the most damning," Bhalla said. "It is not an oil-price artefact and it is not a China story. It is simply nothing happening."

India Trails Vietnam On Exports

Bhalla also pointed to India's export performance. 

India's share of world goods exports increased only slightly, from 1.71% in 2011 to 1.88% in 2023.

Over the same period, Vietnam's share jumped from 0.52% to 1.50%. Its goods exports rose from $93 billion to $345 billion, compared with India’s increase from $307 billion to $432 billion.

"A country with a fifteenth of our population has almost caught us," Bhalla said, noting that this happened while India was "attending summits about the reform of the international order."

"That is not a BRICS failure. It is ours," he said. "But it is the answer to anyone who thinks the grouping is where India’s economic future is being decided."

He pointed to China's economic weight inside BRICS and hinted at why India should look towards the US. 

"On the evidence of fifteen years, the grouping is where two-thirds of the income and 60 per cent of the exports belong to the one member whose interests are least aligned with ours - the member that runs a $112 billion trade surplus with us, has put $2.5 billion of direct investment into India against America's $100 billion, and throttled our rare-earth supply last year."