'India to overtake US within 25 years...': US economist sees Asian century taking shape

India is on course to overtake the United States to become the world’s second-largest economy within the next 25 years and could eventually emerge as the world’s biggest economy, economist Jeffrey Sachs has said, arguing that the centre of gravity of the global economy is shifting decisively towards Asia.

Sachs, a professor at Columbia University and a longtime advocate of stronger India-China ties, said the two Asian giants are likely to become the world's two largest economies in less than a quarter century, with the US slipping to third place.

“I'm looking at the time just in less than a quarter century now when India and China will be the two largest economies in the world. The United States will be third at that point. At some point in this century, India will be the world's largest economy,” Sachs said in an interview with India Today.

He said India is already growing faster than other major economies and could accelerate that trajectory further through closer economic and technological engagement with China.

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Sachs also pointed to India's demographic advantage, contrasting its population trajectory with China's. While India's population is around 150 crore and China's about 140 crore, he said China's population is declining and India could eventually become significantly more populous.

“India is on a very rapid development trajectory. India is going to be a larger country. India is going to be more populous country,” he said.

India-China ties ‘most important bilateral relationship’ 

Sachs described India-China relations as “the most important bilateral relationship in the world”, arguing that stronger cooperation between the two countries could have implications far beyond their borders.

He acknowledged the border dispute and the mistrust that has marked ties between New Delhi and Beijing, but argued that both countries have a strong economic and strategic incentive to improve relations.

“China needs India just as India needs China,” Sachs said.

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According to him, better relations could boost trade, investment, technology partnerships and supply-chain cooperation. Chinese investment and joint ventures, he argued, could add momentum to India's economic expansion.

“India's growing the fastest of all the large countries right now and foreign investment from China in all kinds of joint ventures would accelerate that even more,” he said.

Sachs also argued that improved India-China ties could help ease some of New Delhi's concerns over Beijing's relationship with Pakistan.

BRICS should defend multilateralism, not become anti-West 

With India hosting the BRICS Summit 2026, Sachs said the grouping should position itself not as an anti-Western bloc but as a defender of a multilateral global order.

Sachs argued that the world has already become multipolar, with India among its major powers, and that international institutions and relationships need to reflect that shift.

“There are four superpowers by my count. United States, Russia, India and China and they do need to get along with each other,” he said.

He also rejected the idea that China's growing economic weight would inevitably translate into Chinese global hegemony. “But in my view, China no way is going to run the world,” Sachs said. “We're in a world beyond hegemonies now. We're in a world of multiple powers of which India is one and that is the world to make safe through multilateralism.”

‘Centre of gravity’ moving back to Asia 

Sachs said India's economic future should also be viewed against a broader shift in global economic power towards Asia.

“The center of gravity of the world economy has moved back to Asia where it was for 2,000 years and then briefly departed after 1800. It's moved back to Asia,” he said.

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He argued that India's strategic and economic relationships with China, ASEAN, Africa and the Gulf would consequently become increasingly important.

Sachs linked that outlook to India's historical position as a major Indian Ocean trading power, suggesting that its future economic relationships should reflect its geography and the changing composition of the world economy.

Sachs urges India to rethink Quad 

Sachs took a sharply critical position on India's participation in the Quad, describing the grouping as an instrument aimed at containing China.

“First of all, the Quad is an anti-China play and India is being used in that. India has no business being part of the Quad. For heaven's sake, get out of that. India's relations with China should not be manipulated by the United States. They should be on a bilateral basis. So India should leave the Quad. Period.”

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His comments represent his view on India's strategic choices amid its simultaneous engagement with the US-led groupings and BRICS 2026.

Sachs similarly argued that India should not base its long-term strategy primarily on relations with the West, pointing to the relative population size of the US and Europe and the growing economic importance of emerging markets.

Three priorities for BRICS 

Asked to identify three priorities for BRICS 2026, Sachs called for an end to the war involving Iran, the development of a multi-currency payments architecture and stronger backing for the United Nations.

“First, BRICS should tell the United States, "Stop this horrendous war against Iran." Second, BRICS should move to a multi-currency payment system so that the United States cannot enforce unilateral sanctions on India or any other country. And third, the BRICS should say, "We support the UN. We want a secretary general who is strong, independent for the whole world."”

He said BRICS countries should also host more major UN activities and campuses, including potentially in India, China, Brazil and Russia.