India to drive global aviation growth: Aircraft lessor Avolon
China drove aviation growth in the past decade. India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to drive aviation’s growth in the next decade
- Jan 26, 2026,
- Updated Jan 26, 2026 11:43 AM IST
India will be among the top nations to drive the global aviation growth with an aircraft order of more than double the current fleet and IndiGo in the list of investment-grade-rated airlines, said Avolon, the world’s third-largest aircraft lessor, in its 2026 outlook.
The outlook by Irish lessor says, China drove aviation’s growth in the past decade, enlarging its fleet from 1,200 narrow and wide body passenger aircraft in 2009 to nearly 3,300 in 2019 – an increase from 9% of the total global fleet to 16%.
“In the next decade, the baton will be passed to India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to drive aviation’s growth. With a combined backlog of almost 3,000, the aircraft on order represent close to double their current in-service fleet and close to 1,000 of which are scheduled to deliver in the next three years,” it said.
The outlook put IndiGo on the list of the top five airlines, with a market cap of $22 billion.
The domestic carriers, with a current operational fleet of 800 aircraft, have placed an order for over 1,500 aircraft to be delivered in the next decade. IndiGo has said it is receiving one aircraft per week of its order, and a similar inventory addition is for Air India. The induction has been delayed due to order backlog and supply chain issues faced by Boeing and Airbus.
Avolon noted that order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years based on 2025 production rates, driving the manufacturers to ramp up production and incentivising airlines and lessors alike to reserve their place in the queue.
“Whereas nearly 200 airlines and lessors had slots reserved at the end of the last decade, the number today is only around half that total. The top 10 airlines now hold over half of the airline orderbook with Airbus and Boeing, while the top 3 lessors hold over half of the lessor orderbook,” it said.
In terms of earnings, Avolon said the airlines are on track to generate $41 billion net profit in 2026, the fourth consecutive profitable year, which is expected to be sufficient to offset over 80% of the $182 billion pandemic losses incurred in 2020-22.
Leverage is reducing as global airlines’ net debt has dropped by more than $100 billion since its peak in 2020. Deleveraging has led to credit upgrades, with several airlines achieving investment grade over the past year.
From only a handful in 2022, there are now a dozen investment-grade-rated airlines, including Delta Air Lines, Southwest, IAG, Lufthansa, Etihad, Qantas, Air New Zealand, Ryanair, and Indigo.
“Low fuel prices, constrained fleet growth, and strong demand for air transport will enable continued credit upgrades for airlines globally despite pockets of weakness,” it said.
India will be among the top nations to drive the global aviation growth with an aircraft order of more than double the current fleet and IndiGo in the list of investment-grade-rated airlines, said Avolon, the world’s third-largest aircraft lessor, in its 2026 outlook.
The outlook by Irish lessor says, China drove aviation’s growth in the past decade, enlarging its fleet from 1,200 narrow and wide body passenger aircraft in 2009 to nearly 3,300 in 2019 – an increase from 9% of the total global fleet to 16%.
“In the next decade, the baton will be passed to India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia to drive aviation’s growth. With a combined backlog of almost 3,000, the aircraft on order represent close to double their current in-service fleet and close to 1,000 of which are scheduled to deliver in the next three years,” it said.
The outlook put IndiGo on the list of the top five airlines, with a market cap of $22 billion.
The domestic carriers, with a current operational fleet of 800 aircraft, have placed an order for over 1,500 aircraft to be delivered in the next decade. IndiGo has said it is receiving one aircraft per week of its order, and a similar inventory addition is for Air India. The induction has been delayed due to order backlog and supply chain issues faced by Boeing and Airbus.
Avolon noted that order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years based on 2025 production rates, driving the manufacturers to ramp up production and incentivising airlines and lessors alike to reserve their place in the queue.
“Whereas nearly 200 airlines and lessors had slots reserved at the end of the last decade, the number today is only around half that total. The top 10 airlines now hold over half of the airline orderbook with Airbus and Boeing, while the top 3 lessors hold over half of the lessor orderbook,” it said.
In terms of earnings, Avolon said the airlines are on track to generate $41 billion net profit in 2026, the fourth consecutive profitable year, which is expected to be sufficient to offset over 80% of the $182 billion pandemic losses incurred in 2020-22.
Leverage is reducing as global airlines’ net debt has dropped by more than $100 billion since its peak in 2020. Deleveraging has led to credit upgrades, with several airlines achieving investment grade over the past year.
From only a handful in 2022, there are now a dozen investment-grade-rated airlines, including Delta Air Lines, Southwest, IAG, Lufthansa, Etihad, Qantas, Air New Zealand, Ryanair, and Indigo.
“Low fuel prices, constrained fleet growth, and strong demand for air transport will enable continued credit upgrades for airlines globally despite pockets of weakness,” it said.