India's crude imports from Russia slump in December: Report
Indian refiners are turning to non-designated Russian suppliers and opaque trading channels, with independent traders taking over roles previously dominated by Rosneft and Lukoil.
- Dec 31, 2025,
- Updated Dec 31, 2025 4:19 PM IST
India's crude oil imports from Russia are expected to decline sharply in December, falling to around 1.2 million barrels per day – the lowest in three years and a significant drop from 1.84 million barrels per day in November. Data from global trade analytics firm Kpler shows Russian crude will account for about 25 per cent of India's total crude imports for the month, down from 38 per cent in November.
The decrease follows US sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, prompting Indian refiners to restrict purchases from designated entities.
Despite the sharp drop in December, analysts note this is a temporary disruption rather than a long-term structural change in India's oil import strategy. "This appears to be a near-term adjustment," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, adding that Russian crude imports into India are expected to recover gradually from January as supply chains reconfigure and new intermediaries step in.
The December decline has been driven mainly by reduced intake from major buyers such as Reliance Industries Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., both of which scaled back Russian crude purchases. To compensate, Indian refiners increased sourcing from West Asia, West Africa, and the Americas.
According to Ritolia, headline figures for December do not fully reflect the evolving trade dynamics. "Beneath the surface, Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries, traders, and logistical workarounds," he said. "While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact."
Indian refiners are turning to non-designated Russian suppliers and opaque trading channels, with independent traders taking over roles previously dominated by Rosneft and Lukoil. Ritolia emphasised that Russian crude itself is not sanctioned; only specific producers, vessels, and service providers are targeted, allowing non-sanctioned entities to continue supplying oil to India.
Price dynamics have shifted as well. Since early December, Urals crude differentials against Oman/Dubai on a delivered ex-ship West Coast India basis have remained at a discount of about $6.50 per barrel, narrowing by approximately $4.50 per barrel compared to pre-sanctions levels.
The shift in price differentials also reflects broader market trends, with competing West Asian grades such as Arab Light and Basrah Medium experiencing a reduction of $1.50-$2 per barrel. This has prompted Indian refiners to diversify further, with increased shipments from the UAE during 2025, even as annual Russian imports averaged 1.70 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the previous year's 1.78 million barrels per day.
"As long as broader secondary sanctions are not enforced, India is expected to continue importing Russian barrels as economics support the case," Ritolia said. "These barrels are likely to remain structurally embedded in India's crude slate, albeit increasingly through indirect and less transparent channels."
India's crude oil imports from Russia are expected to decline sharply in December, falling to around 1.2 million barrels per day – the lowest in three years and a significant drop from 1.84 million barrels per day in November. Data from global trade analytics firm Kpler shows Russian crude will account for about 25 per cent of India's total crude imports for the month, down from 38 per cent in November.
The decrease follows US sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, prompting Indian refiners to restrict purchases from designated entities.
Despite the sharp drop in December, analysts note this is a temporary disruption rather than a long-term structural change in India's oil import strategy. "This appears to be a near-term adjustment," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, adding that Russian crude imports into India are expected to recover gradually from January as supply chains reconfigure and new intermediaries step in.
The December decline has been driven mainly by reduced intake from major buyers such as Reliance Industries Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., both of which scaled back Russian crude purchases. To compensate, Indian refiners increased sourcing from West Asia, West Africa, and the Americas.
According to Ritolia, headline figures for December do not fully reflect the evolving trade dynamics. "Beneath the surface, Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries, traders, and logistical workarounds," he said. "While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact."
Indian refiners are turning to non-designated Russian suppliers and opaque trading channels, with independent traders taking over roles previously dominated by Rosneft and Lukoil. Ritolia emphasised that Russian crude itself is not sanctioned; only specific producers, vessels, and service providers are targeted, allowing non-sanctioned entities to continue supplying oil to India.
Price dynamics have shifted as well. Since early December, Urals crude differentials against Oman/Dubai on a delivered ex-ship West Coast India basis have remained at a discount of about $6.50 per barrel, narrowing by approximately $4.50 per barrel compared to pre-sanctions levels.
The shift in price differentials also reflects broader market trends, with competing West Asian grades such as Arab Light and Basrah Medium experiencing a reduction of $1.50-$2 per barrel. This has prompted Indian refiners to diversify further, with increased shipments from the UAE during 2025, even as annual Russian imports averaged 1.70 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the previous year's 1.78 million barrels per day.
"As long as broader secondary sanctions are not enforced, India is expected to continue importing Russian barrels as economics support the case," Ritolia said. "These barrels are likely to remain structurally embedded in India's crude slate, albeit increasingly through indirect and less transparent channels."