India’s share of global metals revenue to rise to 12% by 2035 as China’s declines: McKinsey

India is emerging as an increasingly important market for the global metals and mining industry, with its share of global metals revenue projected to rise to 12% by 2035 from around 10% in 2025, according to McKinsey & Company’s Global Materials Perspective 2026.

China’s share, meanwhile, is expected to decline to 38% by 2035 from a peak of around 48% in 2020, reflecting a slowdown in construction activity and changing patterns of metals demand. The shift could make India and other emerging Asian economies more important destinations for investment, talent and capacity expansion.

India’s share of global metals revenue has already increased from 6% in 2020 to around 10% in 2025, making it the world’s second-largest metals market after China, the report said.

India’s domestic demand supports growth

India’s growing importance comes as the global materials industry faces changing demand patterns, geopolitical uncertainty and pressure to secure supply chains. While traditional demand drivers such as construction remain significant, digital infrastructure, electrification and other industrial applications are creating new requirements for metals and minerals.

McKinsey said India’s demand-led growth positions it as an increasingly important destination for capital and talent as the geography of the global materials industry changes.

The country’s steel market also stands out for its profitability. Indian steel producers recorded earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins of around 16-17% in 2025, the highest among the regions analysed by McKinsey. Strong domestic demand supported the performance even as steel producers globally faced margin pressures.

Rajat Gupta, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said India’s growing importance was underpinned by domestic demand, competitive steel economics and an expanding workforce.

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He said the country would need targeted investment, stronger productivity and the development of future-ready talent to convert these advantages into sustained industry leadership.

Investment and workforce requirements

The shift in demand is likely to influence how companies allocate capital across mining, processing and downstream manufacturing. McKinsey said investment decisions would increasingly need to reflect changing regional demand, new commodity requirements and opportunities for partnerships and more efficient project execution.

The report estimates that India’s metals and mining workforce will expand by approximately 430,000 full-time equivalents by 2035, the largest projected increase of any region. In contrast, China’s workforce is expected to shrink by around 450,000 full-time equivalents over the same period.

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These changes highlight the need for workforce development and reskilling to support the industry’s changing requirements.

Globally, the industry faces a significant investment challenge. McKinsey estimates that meeting future demand and addressing supply requirements will need around $4.2 trillion in capital expenditure across mining and processing through 2035.

Michel Van Hoey, senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said the industry had entered 2026 in a strong financial position, but underlying growth remained modest.

The opportunity, he said, was to translate financial strength into investment decisions that reflect where future demand and value creation are shifting.

For India, rising metals demand and competitive steel economics could strengthen its position in the global industry, provided investment, productivity improvements and talent development keep pace with growth.

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