'We are sleepwalking into 2035': Fund manager warns India is handing trillion-dollar value to US Big Tech
The equity strategist said Google and Meta were the biggest concerns, while Amazon, Flipkart and newer large language models could also add to the pressure on Indian platforms
- Aug 10, 2026,
- Updated Aug 10, 2026 2:03 PM IST
India is "sleep-walking into a 2035 scenario" where US Big Tech firms such as Google and Meta could dominate the country's digital advertising market and take away at least $1 trillion in market value, fund manager and India equity strategist Harsh Gupta Madhusudan warned on Monday.
"We are sleepwalking into a 2035 scenario where just $100B+ of digital ad revenue goes to US Big Tech for winning via network externalities, platform winner-takes-all scale economies," Madhusudan said in a detailed post on X.
He said Google and Meta were the biggest concerns, while Amazon, Flipkart and newer large language models could also add to the pressure on Indian platforms. "We are, as we speak, giving at least a trillion dollars of free market cap to America and away from ourselves," he said.
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‘WINNER TAKES ALL’
Madhusudan said the dominance of US technology companies was driven by network effects and economies of scale.
He argued that the potential loss for India was bigger than the immediate advertising revenue.
"Remember, for US Big Tech, a customer less is a competitor more for Indian platforms would also expand into the world," he said. "So, the real optionality value is higher and of course very strong growth in India beyond 2035 as well."
DATA AND NATIONAL SECURITY
The equity strategist also raised concerns about the amount of data held by US technology companies.
He said the US government, if it wants, knows more about some Indians than the Indian government perhaps ever will - "which is a massive national security and data privacy issue."
He claimed that US law allows the government to access user data without a warrant. "By law, your and my data is to be given to USG without any warrant. And of course behind the scenes, anything is possible."
Madhusudan also pointed to the pressure on smaller Indian digital businesses. He said the country's small digital entrepreneurs were "being extorted out of App Store fees."
He criticised calls for free trade without accounting for the economics of industries dominated by large platforms. "And then geniuses can just mutter free trade without having understood the basics of trade theory under increasing scale economies and oligopolistic competition," he said.
The fund manager added that modern trade economists, including Paul Krugman, had acknowledged aspects of this argument.
'BIG TECH NOT PAYING TAXES'
Tax Compass CEO Ajay Rotti, reacting to Madhusudan's comments, said the tax implications were another issue. "And remember, in the absence of digital taxation, we are not collecting any taxes on that digital ad revenue," Rotti said.
He said taxation had traditionally been linked to physical presence in a country. "140+ countries got together under OECD to change that, and we started implementation. US has not been a part of it. Trump administration has walked away from that," he said.
Rotti said this meant Big Tech companies were not paying taxes in the market jurisdictions where their digital advertising revenue was generated. "They pay taxes only in countries where they have physical presence and only in respect of the activities carried on there!" he said.
India is "sleep-walking into a 2035 scenario" where US Big Tech firms such as Google and Meta could dominate the country's digital advertising market and take away at least $1 trillion in market value, fund manager and India equity strategist Harsh Gupta Madhusudan warned on Monday.
"We are sleepwalking into a 2035 scenario where just $100B+ of digital ad revenue goes to US Big Tech for winning via network externalities, platform winner-takes-all scale economies," Madhusudan said in a detailed post on X.
He said Google and Meta were the biggest concerns, while Amazon, Flipkart and newer large language models could also add to the pressure on Indian platforms. "We are, as we speak, giving at least a trillion dollars of free market cap to America and away from ourselves," he said.
Don't Miss: Google Assistant to be replaced by Gemini starting September on Android and WearOS
‘WINNER TAKES ALL’
Madhusudan said the dominance of US technology companies was driven by network effects and economies of scale.
He argued that the potential loss for India was bigger than the immediate advertising revenue.
"Remember, for US Big Tech, a customer less is a competitor more for Indian platforms would also expand into the world," he said. "So, the real optionality value is higher and of course very strong growth in India beyond 2035 as well."
DATA AND NATIONAL SECURITY
The equity strategist also raised concerns about the amount of data held by US technology companies.
He said the US government, if it wants, knows more about some Indians than the Indian government perhaps ever will - "which is a massive national security and data privacy issue."
He claimed that US law allows the government to access user data without a warrant. "By law, your and my data is to be given to USG without any warrant. And of course behind the scenes, anything is possible."
Madhusudan also pointed to the pressure on smaller Indian digital businesses. He said the country's small digital entrepreneurs were "being extorted out of App Store fees."
He criticised calls for free trade without accounting for the economics of industries dominated by large platforms. "And then geniuses can just mutter free trade without having understood the basics of trade theory under increasing scale economies and oligopolistic competition," he said.
The fund manager added that modern trade economists, including Paul Krugman, had acknowledged aspects of this argument.
'BIG TECH NOT PAYING TAXES'
Tax Compass CEO Ajay Rotti, reacting to Madhusudan's comments, said the tax implications were another issue. "And remember, in the absence of digital taxation, we are not collecting any taxes on that digital ad revenue," Rotti said.
He said taxation had traditionally been linked to physical presence in a country. "140+ countries got together under OECD to change that, and we started implementation. US has not been a part of it. Trump administration has walked away from that," he said.
Rotti said this meant Big Tech companies were not paying taxes in the market jurisdictions where their digital advertising revenue was generated. "They pay taxes only in countries where they have physical presence and only in respect of the activities carried on there!" he said.